New Mexico Lobos at Oklahoma Sooners college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 19
- 7:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- Oklahoma home
- Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 17 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
New Mexico visits Oklahoma in Week 3.
New Mexico travels to Oklahoma at Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK). No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 17 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to John Mateer (OU), Jack Layne (UNM), and Isaiah Sategna III (OU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
17 player distributions are available, led by John Mateer (OU).
Venue context
Oklahoma is the designated home team at Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK).
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:00+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:00+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
New Mexico pass protection vs Oklahoma pass rush
New Mexico's pass protection graded 58.7 in 2025 (113th of 136); Oklahoma's pass rush graded 68.9 (28th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Oklahoma's pass rush.
Oklahoma pass protection vs New Mexico pass rush
Oklahoma's pass protection graded 74.3 in 2025 (11th of 136); New Mexico's pass rush graded 70.9 (10th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
New Mexico receiving corps vs Oklahoma coverage
New Mexico's receiving corps graded 64.3 in 2025 (74th of 136); Oklahoma's coverage graded 66.4 (42nd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Oklahoma's coverage.
Oklahoma receiving corps vs New Mexico coverage
Oklahoma's receiving corps graded 63.1 in 2025 (89th of 136); New Mexico's coverage graded 65.2 (60th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for New Mexico's coverage.
New Mexico rush offense vs Oklahoma run defense
New Mexico's rush offense graded 71.4 in 2025 (108th of 136); Oklahoma's run defense graded 72.7 (15th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Oklahoma's run defense.
Oklahoma rush offense vs New Mexico run defense
Oklahoma's rush offense graded 69.5 in 2025 (123rd of 136); New Mexico's run defense graded 71.6 (22nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for New Mexico's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
New Mexico
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack LayneVOLATILE · Tier 4 | QB | 16.15.5–26.2 | 16679–234 | — | — | — |
| Troy Omeirebalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 9.63.3–15.8 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.3 | 4814–66 |
| James LaubsteinSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | QB | 9.12.2–16.2 | — | 409–64 | — | — |
| Cade Keithbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 9.33.2–14.7 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.6 | 3912–59 |
| Simon MapaVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 6.51.7–10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Zhaiel Smithbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.31.6–10.0 | — | — | — | 267–31 |
Oklahoma
11 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Mateerbalanced · Tier 4 | QB | 18.87.8–27.6 | 199134–264 | 332–56 | — | — |
| Isaiah Sategna IIIELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 14.45.4–22.1 | — | — | 4.61.1–6.6 | 5822–86 |
| Trell Harrisbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 11.64.3–19.5 | — | — | 4.51.0–6.6 | 5719–84 |
| Rocky BeersELITE · Tier 1 | TE | 11.64.0–18.5 | — | — | 3.81.0–5.5 | 5216–75 |
| Lloyd AvantSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 12.64.6–19.0 | — | 305–51 | 2.40.9–4.4 | 230–42 |
| Parker LivingstoneHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 9.42.9–14.8 | — | — | — | 3711–56 |
| Jacob Jordanbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 10.03.4–16.5 | — | — | 4.01.1–6.1 | 4315–72 |
| Xavier RobinsonHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 9.42.2–17.6 | — | 4210–66 | 1.70.0–3.0 | — |
| Hayden HansenELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.42.3–11.4 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.0 | 359–50 |
| Jer'Michael CarterELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.31.9–10.3 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.6 | 308–46 |
| John Locke Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 5.61.3–9.4 | — | — | — | — |
New Mexico
- Pass yds
- 166
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 48
- Rush yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 39
- Rec yds
- 26
Oklahoma
- Pass yds
- 199
- Rush yds
- 33
- Receptions
- 4.6
- Rec yds
- 58
- Receptions
- 4.5
- Rec yds
- 57
- Receptions
- 3.8
- Rec yds
- 52
- Rush yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 23
- Rec yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 4.0
- Rec yds
- 43
- Rush yds
- 42
- Receptions
- 1.7
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 30
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John MateerQB · OU | Passing yards | 199.2 | 200.8 | 133.5–263.9 | Shop the line |
| Jack LayneQB · UNM | Passing yards | 165.9 | 177.8 | 78.6–234.3 | Shop the line |
| Isaiah Sategna IIIWR · OU | Receiving yards | 58.4 | 50.2 | 22.2–86.1 | Shop the line |
| Trell HarrisWR · OU | Receiving yards | 57.2 | 44.1 | 18.8–84.0 | Shop the line |
| Rocky BeersTE · OU | Receiving yards | 51.6 | 38.1 | 15.6–74.6 | Shop the line |
| Lloyd AvantRB · OU | Rushing yards | 30.4 | 26.9 | 5.2–50.6 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 199.2
- Median
- 200.8
- 20th–80th
- 133.5–263.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 165.9
- Median
- 177.8
- 20th–80th
- 78.6–234.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 58.4
- Median
- 50.2
- 20th–80th
- 22.2–86.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 57.2
- Median
- 44.1
- 20th–80th
- 18.8–84.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 51.6
- Median
- 38.1
- 20th–80th
- 15.6–74.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 30.4
- Median
- 26.9
- 20th–80th
- 5.2–50.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated