NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 19
- 12:45 PM EDT
- Venue
- Vanderbilt home
- FirstBank Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 22 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
NC State visits Vanderbilt in Week 3.
NC State travels to Vanderbilt at FirstBank Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 22 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to CJ Bailey (NCSU), Sedrick Alexander (VAN), and Victor Snow (NCSU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
22 player distributions are available, led by CJ Bailey (NCSU).
Venue context
Vanderbilt is the designated home team at FirstBank Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:00+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:00+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
NC State pass protection vs Vanderbilt pass rush
NC State's pass protection graded 67.2 in 2025 (60th of 136); Vanderbilt's pass rush graded 65.7 (65th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Vanderbilt pass protection vs NC State pass rush
Vanderbilt's pass protection graded 50.4 in 2025 (133rd of 136); NC State's pass rush graded 65.5 (68th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for NC State's pass rush. NC State's pass rush returns only 21.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
NC State receiving corps vs Vanderbilt coverage
NC State's receiving corps graded 69.0 in 2025 (14th of 136); Vanderbilt's coverage graded 65.3 (57th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for NC State's receiving corps.
Vanderbilt receiving corps vs NC State coverage
Vanderbilt's receiving corps graded 71.8 in 2025 (6th of 136); NC State's coverage graded 59.3 (116th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Vanderbilt's receiving corps.
NC State rush offense vs Vanderbilt run defense
NC State's rush offense graded 77.9 in 2025 (43rd of 136); Vanderbilt's run defense graded 66.8 (71st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for NC State's rush offense.
Vanderbilt rush offense vs NC State run defense
Vanderbilt's rush offense graded 78.9 in 2025 (30th of 136); NC State's run defense graded 65.9 (81st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Vanderbilt's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
NC State
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ BaileySAFE FLOOR · Tier 4 | QB | 17.57.2–26.9 | 203106–252 | 270–50 | — | — |
| Victor SnowHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 14.14.4–21.5 | — | — | 4.41.1–6.5 | 5717–82 |
| Tad Hudsonbalanced · Tier 5 | QB | 10.23.0–19.4 | 15222–244 | — | — | — |
| Will WilsonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | QB | 10.23.0–16.4 | — | 358–57 | — | — |
| Davion GauseELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.02.4–14.2 | — | 274–39 | 1.80.0–3.2 | 140–17 |
| Davion DozierELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.02.5–12.7 | — | — | — | 3712–54 |
| Jayden ScottSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 8.02.0–13.6 | — | — | — | 130–16 |
| Joshisa TraderSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.92.1–10.9 | — | — | — | 309–45 |
| Keenan JacksonVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.71.9–10.6 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.6 | — |
Vanderbilt
13 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sedrick AlexanderVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 11.64.7–19.0 | — | 4216–64 | — | 160–27 |
| Junior SherrillVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 11.94.3–20.2 | — | — | 4.21.1–5.9 | 5818–83 |
| Ja'Cory ThomasELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 10.33.6–16.2 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.5 | 5215–73 |
| Blaze Berlowitzbalanced · Tier 5 | QB | 7.71.2–16.3 | — | 22-0–31 | — | — |
| Jayvontay Connerbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 7.52.4–12.0 | — | — | 2.71.1–4.0 | 329–46 |
| Cole SpenceELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 8.42.5–13.4 | — | — | — | 3411–50 |
| Makhilyn YoungSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 8.32.2–14.0 | — | — | — | 150–19 |
| Cole AdamsVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 7.12.0–11.2 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.0 | 308–45 |
| Walter TaylorHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 7.31.1–13.0 | — | 322–54 | — | — |
| Joseph McVaybalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.51.7–11.3 | — | — | — | 279–37 |
| Brycen Colemanbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 5.81.4–10.0 | — | — | — | 267–35 |
| Tristen Brownbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.01.5–10.1 | — | — | — | 277–35 |
| Gabe FisherWeekly model | FB | 5.71.4–9.4 | — | — | — | — |
NC State
- Pass yds
- 203
- Rush yds
- 27
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 57
- Pass yds
- 152
- Rush yds
- 35
- Rush yds
- 27
- Receptions
- 1.8
- Rec yds
- 14
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rec yds
- 13
- Rec yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.5
Vanderbilt
- Rush yds
- 42
- Rec yds
- 16
- Receptions
- 4.2
- Rec yds
- 58
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 52
- Rush yds
- 22
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 32
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 15
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 30
- Rush yds
- 32
- Rec yds
- 27
- Rec yds
- 26
- Rec yds
- 27
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ BaileyQB · NCSU | Passing yards | 202.6 | 202.8 | 106.2–252.2 | Shop the line |
| Sedrick AlexanderRB · VAN | Rushing yards | 42.4 | 40.1 | 15.7–64.0 | Shop the line |
| Victor SnowWR · NCSU | Receiving yards | 56.5 | 45.3 | 17.1–81.9 | Shop the line |
| Junior SherrillWR · VAN | Receiving yards | 58.4 | 42.7 | 17.7–83.0 | Shop the line |
| Tad HudsonQB · NCSU | Passing yards | 151.8 | 162.8 | 21.7–243.6 | Shop the line |
| Ja'Cory ThomasWR · VAN | Receiving yards | 52.1 | 39.0 | 15.4–72.5 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 202.6
- Median
- 202.8
- 20th–80th
- 106.2–252.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 42.4
- Median
- 40.1
- 20th–80th
- 15.7–64.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 56.5
- Median
- 45.3
- 20th–80th
- 17.1–81.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 58.4
- Median
- 42.7
- 20th–80th
- 17.7–83.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 151.8
- Median
- 162.8
- 20th–80th
- 21.7–243.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 52.1
- Median
- 39.0
- 20th–80th
- 15.4–72.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated