Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 26
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Mississippi State home
- Davis Wade Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 17 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Missouri visits Mississippi State in Week 4.
Missouri travels to Mississippi State at Davis Wade Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 17 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Kamario Taylor (MSST), Ahmad Hardy (MIZ), and Anthony Evans III (MSST).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
17 player distributions are available, led by Kamario Taylor (MSST).
Venue context
Mississippi State is the designated home team at Davis Wade Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Missouri pass protection vs Mississippi State pass rush
Missouri's pass protection graded 76.8 in 2025 (4th of 136); Mississippi State's pass rush graded 60.8 (124th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Missouri's pass protection.
Mississippi State pass protection vs Missouri pass rush
Mississippi State's pass protection graded 65.8 in 2025 (70th of 136); Missouri's pass rush graded 71.5 (7th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Missouri's pass rush.
Missouri receiving corps vs Mississippi State coverage
Missouri's receiving corps graded 64.9 in 2025 (62nd of 136); Mississippi State's coverage graded 62.6 (86th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Missouri's receiving corps.
Mississippi State receiving corps vs Missouri coverage
Mississippi State's receiving corps graded 62.4 in 2025 (103rd of 136); Missouri's coverage graded 66.9 (38th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Missouri's coverage. Missouri's coverage returns only 23.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Missouri rush offense vs Mississippi State run defense
Missouri's rush offense graded 85.1 in 2025 (2nd of 136); Mississippi State's run defense graded 61.8 (126th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Missouri's rush offense.
Mississippi State rush offense vs Missouri run defense
Mississippi State's rush offense graded 75.6 in 2025 (64th of 136); Missouri's run defense graded 74.3 (8th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Missouri's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Missouri
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad HardyELITE · Tier 3 | RB | 17.37.1–23.4 | — | 8741–122 | — | — |
| Jamal RobertsVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.63.3–16.5 | — | 4817–74 | — | — |
| Matt ZollersVOLATILE · Tier 6 | QB | 9.11.5–18.0 | 14929–230 | — | — | — |
| Nick EversVOLATILE · Tier 6 | QB | 9.81.7–15.9 | — | 25-1–47 | — | — |
| Donovan OlugbodeELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 9.53.0–15.0 | — | — | 3.11.0–5.0 | 4413–62 |
| Cayden LeeHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 9.53.0–14.6 | — | — | 3.51.0–5.3 | 4614–66 |
| Caleb Goodiebalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 8.62.6–12.8 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.8 | 4211–59 |
| Austin SimmonsHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 9.81.4–15.7 | — | — | — | — |
| Jude JamesELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.62.1–12.7 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.4 | 309–47 |
Mississippi State
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamario TaylorHIGH CEILING · Tier 4 | QB | 21.86.3–30.3 | 17787–238 | 6216–94 | — | — |
| Anthony Evans IIIbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 13.74.8–21.3 | — | — | 4.41.1–6.7 | 5520–85 |
| AJ SwannVOLATILE · Tier 6 | QB | 9.72.7–20.9 | 17687–240 | — | — | — |
| Jaden RashadaELITE · Tier 6 | QB | 10.22.5–19.1 | 14349–231 | — | — | — |
| Fluff BothwellELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 11.14.0–16.5 | — | 4815–79 | — | — |
| Marquis JohnsonELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 8.62.6–13.7 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.0 | 3911–56 |
| Sam WestHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 5.91.4–10.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Sanfrisco Mageebalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 5.71.7–9.7 | — | — | — | 267–40 |
Missouri
- Rush yds
- 87
- Rush yds
- 48
- Pass yds
- 149
- Rush yds
- 25
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 44
- Receptions
- 3.5
- Rec yds
- 46
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 42
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 30
Mississippi State
- Pass yds
- 177
- Rush yds
- 62
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 55
- Pass yds
- 176
- Pass yds
- 143
- Rush yds
- 48
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 39
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamario TaylorQB · MSST | Passing yards | 176.6 | 182.4 | 87.0–237.9 | Shop the line |
| Ahmad HardyRB · MIZ | Rushing yards | 87.3 | 76.4 | 40.9–122.1 | Shop the line |
| Anthony Evans IIIWR · MSST | Receiving yards | 55.4 | 42.5 | 19.5–85.1 | Shop the line |
| AJ SwannQB · MSST | Passing yards | 176.0 | 159.6 | 87.4–240.2 | Shop the line |
| Jamal RobertsRB · MIZ | Rushing yards | 47.5 | 51.4 | 16.7–73.7 | Shop the line |
| Matt ZollersQB · MIZ | Passing yards | 149.0 | 164.1 | 29.0–229.7 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 176.6
- Median
- 182.4
- 20th–80th
- 87.0–237.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 87.3
- Median
- 76.4
- 20th–80th
- 40.9–122.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 55.4
- Median
- 42.5
- 20th–80th
- 19.5–85.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 176.0
- Median
- 159.6
- 20th–80th
- 87.4–240.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 47.5
- Median
- 51.4
- 20th–80th
- 16.7–73.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 149.0
- Median
- 164.1
- 20th–80th
- 29.0–229.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated