Florida Gators at Texas Longhorns college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 17
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Texas home
- DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 27 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Florida visits Texas in Week 7.
Florida travels to Texas at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 27 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Arch Manning (TEX), Jadan Baugh (FLA), and Ryan Wingo (TEX).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
27 player distributions are available, led by Arch Manning (TEX).
Venue context
Texas is the designated home team at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:09+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:09+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Florida pass protection vs Texas pass rush
Florida's pass protection graded 68.2 in 2025 (50th of 136); Texas's pass rush graded 68.4 (33rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Texas's pass rush.
Texas pass protection vs Florida pass rush
Texas's pass protection graded 66.6 in 2025 (65th of 136); Florida's pass rush graded 62.3 (106th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Texas's pass protection.
Florida receiving corps vs Texas coverage
Florida's receiving corps graded 62.6 in 2025 (101st of 136); Texas's coverage graded 65.2 (58th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Texas's coverage.
Texas receiving corps vs Florida coverage
Texas's receiving corps graded 66.9 in 2025 (30th of 136); Florida's coverage graded 62.3 (92nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Texas's receiving corps.
Florida rush offense vs Texas run defense
Florida's rush offense graded 82.5 in 2025 (11th of 136); Texas's run defense graded 72.9 (13th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Texas rush offense vs Florida run defense
Texas's rush offense graded 73.3 in 2025 (90th of 136); Florida's run defense graded 69.6 (39th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Florida's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Florida
14 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jadan BaughELITE · Tier 1 | RB | 18.27.5–25.1 | — | 8234–115 | 2.20.9–4.0 | 170–23 |
| London MontgomeryHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | RB | 13.84.2–21.5 | — | 6117–92 | — | — |
| Eric Singleton Jr.balanced · Tier 5 | WR | 10.94.2–17.9 | — | — | 4.41.1–6.7 | 5216–71 |
| Evan PryorSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 9.93.0–15.2 | — | 379–59 | 1.90.9–3.4 | 140–20 |
| Dallas WilsonVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.22.4–14.8 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.8 | 3912–57 |
| Vernell Brown IIIELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 9.42.7–15.1 | — | — | 3.71.0–5.8 | 4616–67 |
| Aaron PhiloHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 8.11.1–15.4 | 12018–209 | 21-1–38 | — | — |
| Micah Mays Jr.ELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.12.7–13.3 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.2 | 3911–56 |
| Luke HarpringELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.02.0–11.3 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.0 | 329–48 |
| Bailey StocktonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 7.02.3–11.3 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.0 | 349–48 |
| Kahleil JacksonHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.91.9–10.5 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 308–45 |
| Amir JacksonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 5.91.5–9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| TJ AbramsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.71.9–10.8 | — | — | 2.51.0–4.0 | 319–41 |
| Lacota DippreELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 6.61.9–11.1 | — | — | — | 318–46 |
Texas
13 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arch ManningSAFE FLOOR · Tier 4 | QB | 20.58.0–27.0 | 222142–285 | — | — | — |
| Ryan WingoHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 15.04.4–22.3 | — | — | 4.51.0–6.5 | 6320–84 |
| Cam ColemanELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 14.24.6–20.9 | — | — | 4.41.0–6.5 | 5720–85 |
| Raleek BrownELITE · Tier 5 | RB | 14.84.8–21.9 | — | 6120–94 | — | 160–25 |
| Emmett Mosley VVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 10.03.5–16.3 | — | — | 3.81.0–5.8 | 5315–73 |
| Hollywood Smothersbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 11.94.1–17.7 | — | 4615–75 | 2.40.0–4.4 | — |
| Michael MasunasVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.42.3–11.3 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 339–49 |
| MJ MorrisHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 7.31.1–13.6 | 12610–226 | — | — | — |
| Sterling BerkhalterSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 7.02.1–11.0 | — | — | — | 339–48 |
| James SimonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 6.91.3–10.6 | — | 348–59 | — | — |
| Daylan McCutcheonbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.6–9.7 | — | — | — | 266–32 |
| Emaree Winstonbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 5.71.6–9.4 | — | — | — | 256–32 |
| Nick TownsendHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 5.71.3–10.0 | — | — | — | — |
Florida
- Rush yds
- 82
- Receptions
- 2.2
- Rec yds
- 17
- Rush yds
- 61
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 52
- Rush yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 1.9
- Rec yds
- 14
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 3.7
- Rec yds
- 46
- Pass yds
- 120
- Rush yds
- 21
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 32
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rec yds
- 31
Texas
- Pass yds
- 222
- Receptions
- 4.5
- Rec yds
- 63
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 57
- Rush yds
- 61
- Rec yds
- 16
- Receptions
- 3.8
- Rec yds
- 53
- Rush yds
- 46
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 33
- Pass yds
- 126
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rush yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 26
- Rec yds
- 25
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arch ManningQB · TEX | Passing yards | 222.2 | 229.8 | 142.1–285.1 | Shop the line |
| Jadan BaughRB · FLA | Rushing yards | 82.0 | 72.7 | 33.7–114.7 | Shop the line |
| Ryan WingoWR · TEX | Receiving yards | 63.2 | 43.2 | 19.9–83.8 | Shop the line |
| Cam ColemanWR · TEX | Receiving yards | 57.3 | 46.3 | 19.7–84.9 | Shop the line |
| Raleek BrownRB · TEX | Rushing yards | 61.4 | 51.4 | 19.9–94.1 | Shop the line |
| London MontgomeryRB · FLA | Rushing yards | 61.2 | 54.1 | 16.8–91.5 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 222.2
- Median
- 229.8
- 20th–80th
- 142.1–285.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 82.0
- Median
- 72.7
- 20th–80th
- 33.7–114.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 63.2
- Median
- 43.2
- 20th–80th
- 19.9–83.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 57.3
- Median
- 46.3
- 20th–80th
- 19.7–84.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 61.4
- Median
- 51.4
- 20th–80th
- 19.9–94.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 61.2
- Median
- 54.1
- 20th–80th
- 16.8–91.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated