Oklahoma State Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 5
- 3:45 PM EDT
- Venue
- Tulsa home
- H. A. Chapman Stadium
- Captured market
- OKST -14
- DraftKings · Aug 11, 10:09 PM EDT
- Player model
- 25 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Oklahoma State carries the early number into H. A. Chapman Stadium.
Oklahoma State travels to Tulsa at H. A. Chapman Stadium. The captured market lists Oklahoma State as a 14-point favorite. That number came from DraftKings and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 25 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Drew Mestemaker (OKST), Caleb Hawkins (OKST), and Baylor Hayes (TLSA).
Market frame
Oklahoma State is the captured favorite by 14; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
25 player distributions are available, led by Drew Mestemaker (OKST).
Venue context
Tulsa is the designated home team at H. A. Chapman Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00DraftKings snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:09:50ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Oklahoma State pass protection vs Tulsa pass rush
Oklahoma State's pass protection graded 69.7 in 2025 (39th of 136); Tulsa's pass rush graded 69.8 (17th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Tulsa's pass rush.
Tulsa pass protection vs Oklahoma State pass rush
Tulsa's pass protection graded 62.5 in 2025 (94th of 136); Oklahoma State's pass rush graded 61.8 (113th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Tulsa's pass protection.
Oklahoma State receiving corps vs Tulsa coverage
Oklahoma State's receiving corps graded 59.4 in 2025 (131st of 136); Tulsa's coverage graded 68.3 (25th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Tulsa's coverage.
Tulsa receiving corps vs Oklahoma State coverage
Tulsa's receiving corps graded 62.2 in 2025 (104th of 136); Oklahoma State's coverage graded 57.9 (125th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Tulsa's receiving corps.
Oklahoma State rush offense vs Tulsa run defense
Oklahoma State's rush offense graded 68.8 in 2025 (127th of 136); Tulsa's run defense graded 74.3 (7th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Tulsa's run defense.
Tulsa rush offense vs Oklahoma State run defense
Tulsa's rush offense graded 78.7 in 2025 (35th of 136); Oklahoma State's run defense graded 65.7 (83rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Tulsa's rush offense. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Oklahoma State
13 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew MestemakerHIGH CEILING · Tier 4 | QB | 21.89.2–29.8 | 251167–311 | — | — | — |
| Caleb HawkinsELITE · Tier 4 | RB | 17.96.4–24.4 | — | 7835–111 | — | 180–31 |
| Grant JordanSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 14.23.2–23.8 | 15927–259 | 250–54 | — | — |
| Wyatt YoungELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 16.14.6–23.1 | — | — | 4.31.0–6.7 | 6325–95 |
| Israel Polkbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 11.84.2–19.1 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.0 | 5315–76 |
| Miles ColemanELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 11.24.0–16.8 | — | — | 3.51.0–5.6 | 4815–71 |
| Rodney Harris IIbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 10.83.5–15.5 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.3 | 4815–72 |
| Chris Barnesbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 10.03.2–15.7 | — | 161–29 | 3.31.0–5.4 | 409–62 |
| Donovan Greenbalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 9.92.9–14.8 | — | — | 3.01.0–5.0 | 3711–58 |
| Ayo AdeyiHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 9.71.6–15.1 | — | 4311–71 | — | — |
| Justin BowickHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 7.42.2–11.7 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.0 | 349–55 |
| Terrence Lewisbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 7.22.0–11.6 | — | — | — | 278–44 |
| Oscar HammondVOLATILE · Tier 5 | TE | 7.22.0–11.1 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.0 | 299–40 |
Tulsa
12 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor Hayesbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 15.24.8–25.4 | 18482–263 | — | — | — |
| David Wells Jr.ELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 12.24.1–21.0 | — | — | 4.21.0–6.3 | 5117–74 |
| DJ McKinneyHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 10.62.8–17.2 | — | 348–57 | — | 140–19 |
| Dexter Williams IIbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 8.81.0–16.7 | — | — | — | — |
| Josh SmithELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 8.42.7–14.2 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.3 | 3912–58 |
| Grayson TempestELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 8.42.5–14.5 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.1 | 3711–56 |
| Trequan Jonesbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.61.4–12.7 | — | 3510–60 | — | — |
| Damari AlstonHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 7.12.0–11.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Jimmy CallowayHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 7.11.4–12.5 | — | — | — | 307–44 |
| Micah TeaseHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 6.21.7–10.9 | — | — | — | 277–37 |
| Donnell Gee Jr.HIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 5.61.4–10.1 | — | — | — | 266–35 |
| Jewlyen RobertsHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | TE | 5.51.4–9.6 | — | — | — | — |
Oklahoma State
- Pass yds
- 251
- Rush yds
- 78
- Rec yds
- 18
- Pass yds
- 159
- Rush yds
- 25
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 63
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 53
- Receptions
- 3.5
- Rec yds
- 48
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 48
- Rush yds
- 16
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 27
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 29
Tulsa
- Pass yds
- 184
- Receptions
- 4.2
- Rec yds
- 51
- Rush yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 14
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 35
- Rec yds
- 30
- Rec yds
- 27
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew MestemakerQB · OKST | Passing yards | 250.6 | 244.0 | 166.8–311.1 | Shop the line |
| Caleb HawkinsRB · OKST | Rushing yards | 78.1 | 66.2 | 35.4–110.9 | Shop the line |
| Baylor HayesQB · TLSA | Passing yards | 183.6 | 186.4 | 82.1–263.0 | Shop the line |
| Grant JordanQB · OKST | Passing yards | 158.6 | 208.7 | 27.4–259.3 | Shop the line |
| Wyatt YoungWR · OKST | Receiving yards | 63.3 | 45.0 | 24.6–95.3 | Shop the line |
| Israel PolkWR · OKST | Receiving yards | 52.9 | 37.8 | 14.5–75.5 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 250.6
- Median
- 244.0
- 20th–80th
- 166.8–311.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 78.1
- Median
- 66.2
- 20th–80th
- 35.4–110.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 183.6
- Median
- 186.4
- 20th–80th
- 82.1–263.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 158.6
- Median
- 208.7
- 20th–80th
- 27.4–259.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 63.3
- Median
- 45.0
- 20th–80th
- 24.6–95.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 52.9
- Median
- 37.8
- 20th–80th
- 14.5–75.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated