Houston Cougars at Georgia Southern Eagles college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 26
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Georgia Southern home
- Allen E. Paulson Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 22 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Houston visits Georgia Southern in Week 4.
Houston travels to Georgia Southern at Allen E. Paulson Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 22 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Conner Weigman (HOU), Amare Thomas (HOU), and Trent Walker (HOU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
22 player distributions are available, led by Conner Weigman (HOU).
Venue context
Georgia Southern is the designated home team at Allen E. Paulson Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Houston pass protection vs Georgia Southern pass rush
Houston's pass protection graded 55.9 in 2025 (125th of 136); Georgia Southern's pass rush graded 60.1 (131st). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Georgia Southern pass protection vs Houston pass rush
Georgia Southern's pass protection graded 71.3 in 2025 (26th of 136); Houston's pass rush graded 61.8 (114th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Georgia Southern's pass protection. Georgia Southern's pass protection returns only 13.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Houston receiving corps vs Georgia Southern coverage
Houston's receiving corps graded 68.4 in 2025 (19th of 136); Georgia Southern's coverage graded 62.7 (84th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Houston's receiving corps.
Georgia Southern receiving corps vs Houston coverage
Georgia Southern's receiving corps graded 64.1 in 2025 (77th of 136); Houston's coverage graded 69.6 (23rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Houston's coverage.
Houston rush offense vs Georgia Southern run defense
Houston's rush offense graded 75.8 in 2025 (62nd of 136); Georgia Southern's run defense graded 58.0 (136th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Houston's rush offense.
Georgia Southern rush offense vs Houston run defense
Georgia Southern's rush offense graded 75.5 in 2025 (66th of 136); Houston's run defense graded 71.0 (28th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Houston's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Houston
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conner WeigmanELITE · Tier 2 | QB | 24.810.7–31.2 | 192132–245 | 7121–99 | — | — |
| Amare ThomasELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 14.75.1–22.6 | — | — | 4.81.0–6.8 | 6027–88 |
| Trent Walkerbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 12.14.2–18.9 | — | — | 4.31.0–6.5 | 5317–78 |
| Patrick OvermyerELITE · Tier 3 | TE | 10.03.7–16.7 | — | — | 3.21.1–5.0 | 4613–65 |
| Re'Shaun Sanford IISAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 9.12.5–14.5 | — | 4214–66 | 1.70.0–3.3 | 160–26 |
| DJ ButlerVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.12.3–12.3 | — | 3710–59 | — | — |
| Harvey Broussard IIISAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 8.12.8–12.4 | — | — | — | 3812–59 |
| Makhi HughesSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 7.42.3–11.8 | — | 437–60 | — | — |
| Luke McGarySAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 7.12.3–11.0 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 319–44 |
| Koby YoungHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 6.31.8–10.7 | — | — | 2.51.0–4.0 | 297–39 |
Georgia Southern
12 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Dallasbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 9.93.6–16.2 | — | — | 3.51.1–5.4 | 4514–66 |
| Max JohnsonELITE · Tier 6 | QB | 9.41.9–19.3 | 12736–225 | — | — | — |
| Taeo Toddbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 8.72.6–13.6 | — | 378–60 | 1.80.8–3.3 | 140–22 |
| River Helmsbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 7.62.4–12.1 | — | — | — | — |
| Bryce Bakerbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.62.0–11.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Ashton Hollinsbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 7.02.2–11.3 | — | — | — | 309–43 |
| Weston Bryanbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 7.31.2–12.7 | — | — | — | — |
| David MbadingaHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 7.31.9–12.3 | — | 346–53 | — | — |
| Taylor BradshawELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 6.41.8–10.7 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 297–42 |
| Andre Greene Jr.SAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 6.11.8–10.3 | — | — | — | — |
| Jamarian SamuelVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 5.61.1–9.9 | — | 265–49 | — | — |
| Kam MikellHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 6.21.2–10.6 | — | 305–51 | — | — |
Houston
- Pass yds
- 192
- Rush yds
- 71
- Receptions
- 4.8
- Rec yds
- 60
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 53
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 46
- Rush yds
- 42
- Receptions
- 1.7
- Rec yds
- 16
- Rush yds
- 37
- Rec yds
- 38
- Rush yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 29
Georgia Southern
- Receptions
- 3.5
- Rec yds
- 45
- Pass yds
- 127
- Rush yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 1.8
- Rec yds
- 14
- Rec yds
- 30
- Rush yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 29
- Rush yds
- 26
- Rush yds
- 30
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conner WeigmanQB · HOU | Passing yards | 191.7 | 189.8 | 131.6–245.0 | Shop the line |
| Amare ThomasWR · HOU | Receiving yards | 60.2 | 47.8 | 26.9–87.6 | Shop the line |
| Trent WalkerWR · HOU | Receiving yards | 53.4 | 49.8 | 17.2–78.0 | Shop the line |
| Patrick OvermyerTE · HOU | Receiving yards | 45.6 | 35.0 | 13.2–65.0 | Shop the line |
| Josh DallasWR · GASO | Receiving yards | 45.2 | 36.8 | 14.0–66.4 | Shop the line |
| Max JohnsonQB · GASO | Passing yards | 126.7 | 143.0 | 36.3–224.5 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 191.7
- Median
- 189.8
- 20th–80th
- 131.6–245.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 60.2
- Median
- 47.8
- 20th–80th
- 26.9–87.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 53.4
- Median
- 49.8
- 20th–80th
- 17.2–78.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 45.6
- Median
- 35.0
- 20th–80th
- 13.2–65.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 45.2
- Median
- 36.8
- 20th–80th
- 14.0–66.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 126.7
- Median
- 143.0
- 20th–80th
- 36.3–224.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated