UCLA Bruins at California Golden Bears college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 5
- 10:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- California home
- California Memorial Stadium
- Captured market
- UCLA -1.5
- FanDuel · Aug 11, 10:10 PM EDT
- Player model
- 22 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
UCLA carries the early number into California Memorial Stadium.
UCLA travels to California at California Memorial Stadium. The captured market lists UCLA as a 1.5-point favorite. That number came from FanDuel and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 22 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (CAL), Nico Iamaleava (UCLA), and Wayne Knight (UCLA).
Market frame
UCLA is the captured favorite by 1.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
22 player distributions are available, led by Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (CAL).
Venue context
California is the designated home team at California Memorial Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00FanDuel snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:10:02ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
UCLA pass protection vs California pass rush
UCLA's pass protection graded 65.0 in 2025 (79th of 136); California's pass rush graded 64.4 (80th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
California pass protection vs UCLA pass rush
California's pass protection graded 61.5 in 2025 (99th of 136); UCLA's pass rush graded 57.4 (135th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for California's pass protection.
UCLA receiving corps vs California coverage
UCLA's receiving corps graded 61.2 in 2025 (108th of 136); California's coverage graded 72.6 (6th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for California's coverage.
California receiving corps vs UCLA coverage
California's receiving corps graded 64.8 in 2025 (63rd of 136); UCLA's coverage graded 61.8 (100th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for California's receiving corps.
UCLA rush offense vs California run defense
UCLA's rush offense graded 74.1 in 2025 (82nd of 136); California's run defense graded 61.4 (129th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UCLA's rush offense.
California rush offense vs UCLA run defense
California's rush offense graded 72.8 in 2025 (96th of 136); UCLA's run defense graded 64.8 (100th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
UCLA
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico IamaleavaELITE · Tier 4 | QB | 13.76.0–24.2 | 16773–258 | 313–58 | — | — |
| Wayne KnightSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | RB | 14.85.6–24.8 | — | 6930–105 | — | — |
| Mikey MatthewsVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 10.73.1–15.9 | — | — | 3.61.0–5.4 | 4511–63 |
| Leland SmithELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 9.92.5–14.3 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.0 | 5114–70 |
| Landon EllisSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 9.13.0–12.9 | — | — | 3.21.0–5.0 | 4714–69 |
| Jaivian ThomasVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.92.2–11.9 | — | 367–56 | — | — |
| Anthony Woodsbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 8.02.3–12.6 | — | 326–53 | 2.00.9–3.3 | 180–35 |
| Brian Rowe Jr.balanced · Tier 6 | WR | 8.32.2–13.1 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.5 | 399–56 |
| Aidan MizellVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 8.42.2–11.7 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.6 | 3711–57 |
| Josh PhiferVOLATILE · Tier 5 | TE | 6.41.5–9.7 | — | — | — | — |
California
12 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleELITE · Tier 4 | QB | 19.36.2–26.4 | 254152–286 | — | — | — |
| Jackson Brousseaubalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 13.34.0–21.6 | 17482–264 | — | — | — |
| Adam MohammedELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 13.44.4–21.1 | — | 6619–92 | — | 150–21 |
| Chase HendricksHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 14.34.5–21.8 | — | — | 4.61.0–6.6 | 5719–90 |
| Ian StrongELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 10.84.1–16.7 | — | — | 3.61.0–5.7 | 5016–74 |
| Mason MiniHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | TE | 9.92.8–15.5 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.9 | 3911–62 |
| Ashten EmoryVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 10.64.0–16.0 | — | 5416–91 | — | — |
| Dorian Thomasbalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 9.12.8–13.4 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.4 | 4012–62 |
| QuaRon AdamsVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 7.51.9–12.2 | — | — | 2.61.1–4.0 | 278–43 |
| Mark Hamperbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 7.02.1–10.8 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.0 | 309–49 |
| Cole BosciaVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 6.51.9–11.3 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.7 | 268–40 |
| Rico WalkerHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | TE | 6.81.9–10.8 | — | — | — | 278–43 |
UCLA
- Pass yds
- 167
- Rush yds
- 31
- Rush yds
- 69
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 45
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 51
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 47
- Rush yds
- 36
- Rush yds
- 32
- Receptions
- 2.0
- Rec yds
- 18
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 37
California
- Pass yds
- 254
- Pass yds
- 174
- Rush yds
- 66
- Rec yds
- 15
- Receptions
- 4.6
- Rec yds
- 57
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 39
- Rush yds
- 54
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 27
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 26
- Rec yds
- 27
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleQB · CAL | Passing yards | 254.0 | 238.5 | 152.4–285.7 | Shop the line |
| Nico IamaleavaQB · UCLA | Passing yards | 166.6 | 184.9 | 73.2–258.1 | Shop the line |
| Wayne KnightRB · UCLA | Rushing yards | 68.9 | 61.0 | 29.5–104.7 | Shop the line |
| Jackson BrousseauQB · CAL | Passing yards | 173.9 | 207.9 | 82.2–263.9 | Shop the line |
| Adam MohammedRB · CAL | Rushing yards | 66.2 | 54.2 | 19.1–92.0 | Shop the line |
| Chase HendricksWR · CAL | Receiving yards | 57.1 | 45.4 | 19.4–89.9 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 254.0
- Median
- 238.5
- 20th–80th
- 152.4–285.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 166.6
- Median
- 184.9
- 20th–80th
- 73.2–258.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 68.9
- Median
- 61.0
- 20th–80th
- 29.5–104.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 173.9
- Median
- 207.9
- 20th–80th
- 82.2–263.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 66.2
- Median
- 54.2
- 20th–80th
- 19.1–92.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 57.1
- Median
- 45.4
- 20th–80th
- 19.4–89.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated