California Golden Bears at SMU Mustangs college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 24
- Time TBA
- Venue
- SMU home
- Gerald J. Ford Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 23 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
California visits SMU in Week 8.
California travels to SMU at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 23 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Kevin Jennings (SMU), Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (CAL), and Kendrick Raphael (SMU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
23 player distributions are available, led by Kevin Jennings (SMU).
Venue context
SMU is the designated home team at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:14+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:14+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
California pass protection vs SMU pass rush
California's pass protection graded 61.5 in 2025 (99th of 136); SMU's pass rush graded 68.0 (39th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for SMU's pass rush.
SMU pass protection vs California pass rush
SMU's pass protection graded 76.1 in 2025 (6th of 136); California's pass rush graded 64.4 (80th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for SMU's pass protection.
California receiving corps vs SMU coverage
California's receiving corps graded 64.8 in 2025 (63rd of 136); SMU's coverage graded 65.6 (53rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
SMU receiving corps vs California coverage
SMU's receiving corps graded 65.6 in 2025 (57th of 136); California's coverage graded 72.6 (6th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for California's coverage.
California rush offense vs SMU run defense
California's rush offense graded 72.8 in 2025 (96th of 136); SMU's run defense graded 73.6 (12th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for SMU's run defense.
SMU rush offense vs California run defense
SMU's rush offense graded 74.1 in 2025 (83rd of 136); California's run defense graded 61.4 (129th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for SMU's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
California
12 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleELITE · Tier 5 | QB | 18.36.1–25.8 | 247153–286 | — | — | — |
| Jackson BrousseauSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 12.43.8–21.2 | 16783–251 | — | — | — |
| Adam MohammedELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 13.24.3–21.1 | — | 6719–92 | — | 150–18 |
| Chase HendricksHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 14.04.4–21.8 | — | — | 4.61.0–6.6 | 5819–87 |
| Ian StrongVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 10.54.0–16.7 | — | — | 3.61.0–5.6 | 5016–71 |
| Mason Minibalanced · Tier 4 | TE | 9.22.8–15.1 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.9 | 4011–59 |
| Ashten EmoryELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 10.53.9–16.0 | — | 5416–90 | — | — |
| Dorian Thomasbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 8.92.8–13.4 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.4 | 4112–60 |
| QuaRon AdamsHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 7.31.9–12.2 | — | — | 2.61.1–4.0 | 288–41 |
| Mark HamperVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.92.1–10.8 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.0 | 319–47 |
| Cole Bosciabalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.31.8–11.3 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.7 | 278–38 |
| Rico WalkerSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 6.61.9–10.8 | — | — | — | 288–40 |
SMU
11 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin JenningsVOLATILE · Tier 5 | QB | 17.96.9–26.4 | 221149–284 | — | — | — |
| Kendrick RaphaelELITE · Tier 3 | RB | 17.37.5–25.1 | — | 8025–111 | 3.10.9–5.1 | 170–30 |
| Yamir Knightbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 11.94.3–19.5 | — | — | 4.21.0–6.0 | 5617–82 |
| Yannick SmithVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 10.73.9–17.2 | — | — | 3.61.0–5.4 | 4916–72 |
| Randy PittmanVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 8.82.7–13.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Mabrey Mettauerbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 8.91.2–17.7 | — | — | — | — |
| Derrick McFallbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 8.72.7–14.3 | — | 266–46 | — | — |
| Theo Melin OhrstromELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.32.3–11.2 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.0 | 3410–48 |
| Jalen CooperSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 7.22.0–11.7 | — | — | — | 3311–49 |
| Jalen HaleSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.62.0–11.0 | — | — | — | 3111–50 |
| Dramekco Greenbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 5.81.5–10.7 | — | — | — | — |
California
- Pass yds
- 247
- Pass yds
- 167
- Rush yds
- 67
- Rec yds
- 15
- Receptions
- 4.6
- Rec yds
- 58
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 40
- Rush yds
- 54
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 41
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 28
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 27
- Rec yds
- 28
SMU
- Pass yds
- 221
- Rush yds
- 80
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 17
- Receptions
- 4.2
- Rec yds
- 56
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 49
- Rush yds
- 26
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rec yds
- 31
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin JenningsQB · SMU | Passing yards | 220.6 | 217.2 | 149.2–284.4 | Shop the line |
| Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleQB · CAL | Passing yards | 246.7 | 234.7 | 153.2–285.8 | Shop the line |
| Kendrick RaphaelRB · SMU | Rushing yards | 79.6 | 70.4 | 24.5–110.9 | Shop the line |
| Jackson BrousseauQB · CAL | Passing yards | 167.3 | 198.9 | 82.5–250.6 | Shop the line |
| Yamir KnightWR · SMU | Receiving yards | 56.0 | 43.7 | 16.9–82.1 | Shop the line |
| Adam MohammedRB · CAL | Rushing yards | 66.9 | 55.0 | 18.9–91.6 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 220.6
- Median
- 217.2
- 20th–80th
- 149.2–284.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 246.7
- Median
- 234.7
- 20th–80th
- 153.2–285.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 79.6
- Median
- 70.4
- 20th–80th
- 24.5–110.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 167.3
- Median
- 198.9
- 20th–80th
- 82.5–250.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 56.0
- Median
- 43.7
- 20th–80th
- 16.9–82.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 66.9
- Median
- 55.0
- 20th–80th
- 18.9–91.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated