Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 31
- Time TBA
- Venue
- North Carolina home
- Kenan Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 18 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Miami visits North Carolina in Week 9.
Miami travels to North Carolina at Kenan Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 18 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Malachi Toney (MIA), Darian Mensah (MIA), and Jordan Shipp (UNC).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
18 player distributions are available, led by Malachi Toney (MIA).
Venue context
North Carolina is the designated home team at Kenan Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:17+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:17+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Miami pass protection vs North Carolina pass rush
Miami's pass protection graded 77.7 in 2025 (3rd of 136); North Carolina's pass rush graded 67.9 (41st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Miami's pass protection.
North Carolina pass protection vs Miami pass rush
North Carolina's pass protection graded 67.7 in 2025 (54th of 136); Miami's pass rush graded 77.3 (1st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Miami's pass rush.
Miami receiving corps vs North Carolina coverage
Miami's receiving corps graded 69.1 in 2025 (12th of 136); North Carolina's coverage graded 63.6 (75th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Miami's receiving corps.
North Carolina receiving corps vs Miami coverage
North Carolina's receiving corps graded 63.0 in 2025 (91st of 136); Miami's coverage graded 70.5 (16th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Miami's coverage.
Miami rush offense vs North Carolina run defense
Miami's rush offense graded 79.6 in 2025 (24th of 136); North Carolina's run defense graded 68.3 (53rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Miami's rush offense.
North Carolina rush offense vs Miami run defense
North Carolina's rush offense graded 70.8 in 2025 (112th of 136); Miami's run defense graded 71.7 (21st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Miami's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Miami
11 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malachi ToneyELITE · Tier 1 | WR | 18.76.8–25.4 | — | — | 5.51.0–8.0 | 6315–95 |
| Darian MensahSAFE FLOOR · Tier 3 | QB | 17.76.4–25.3 | 218143–260 | — | — | — |
| Mark Fletcher Jr.balanced · Tier 5 | RB | 13.54.8–21.9 | — | 4313–68 | 1.90.9–3.2 | — |
| Cooper BarkateVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 11.33.8–16.8 | — | — | 4.01.0–6.0 | 5417–77 |
| Vandrevius JacobsELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 11.54.1–18.9 | — | — | 3.71.0–5.5 | 5315–81 |
| Girard Pringle Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 5 | RB | 9.33.6–17.2 | — | 5114–76 | — | 130–14 |
| Cam VaughnHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 10.23.2–15.4 | — | — | 3.71.0–5.8 | 5314–71 |
| Elija Loftonbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 7.72.0–12.1 | — | — | — | 318–41 |
| CharMar BrownSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 7.82.1–13.3 | — | 337–57 | — | — |
| Joshua MooreSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 7.42.1–12.4 | — | — | — | 2910–46 |
| Jordan Lylebalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.71.7–11.3 | — | 335–55 | — | — |
North Carolina
7 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan ShippHIGH CEILING · Tier 4 | WR | 14.74.8–22.3 | — | — | 4.81.0–6.9 | 5820–86 |
| Trech KekahunaVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.12.4–12.7 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.6 | 399–56 |
| Miles O'NeillSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | QB | 8.11.1–15.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Madrid TuckerSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 7.32.7–12.5 | — | — | 3.11.0–5.1 | 3310–51 |
| Demon JuneELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.31.9–13.7 | — | — | — | — |
| Benjamin Hallbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.61.5–10.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Nathan LeacockHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.6–10.1 | — | — | — | 266–34 |
Miami
- Receptions
- 5.5
- Rec yds
- 63
- Pass yds
- 218
- Rush yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 1.9
- Receptions
- 4.0
- Rec yds
- 54
- Receptions
- 3.7
- Rec yds
- 53
- Rush yds
- 51
- Rec yds
- 13
- Receptions
- 3.7
- Rec yds
- 53
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rush yds
- 33
- Rec yds
- 29
- Rush yds
- 33
North Carolina
- Receptions
- 4.8
- Rec yds
- 58
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malachi ToneyWR · MIA | Receiving yards | 62.9 | 42.0 | 15.2–94.5 | Shop the line |
| Darian MensahQB · MIA | Passing yards | 217.7 | 216.9 | 143.1–260.2 | Shop the line |
| Jordan ShippWR · UNC | Receiving yards | 58.2 | 45.4 | 19.6–85.5 | Shop the line |
| Mark Fletcher Jr.RB · MIA | Rushing yards | 43.4 | 43.4 | 13.3–68.4 | Shop the line |
| Cooper BarkateWR · MIA | Receiving yards | 53.9 | 41.3 | 16.9–76.5 | Shop the line |
| Vandrevius JacobsWR · MIA | Receiving yards | 52.6 | 39.1 | 15.2–81.1 | Shop the line |
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 62.9
- Median
- 42.0
- 20th–80th
- 15.2–94.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 217.7
- Median
- 216.9
- 20th–80th
- 143.1–260.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 58.2
- Median
- 45.4
- 20th–80th
- 19.6–85.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 43.4
- Median
- 43.4
- 20th–80th
- 13.3–68.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 53.9
- Median
- 41.3
- 20th–80th
- 16.9–76.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 52.6
- Median
- 39.1
- 20th–80th
- 15.2–81.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated