UAB Blazers at Illinois Fighting Illini college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Thu, Sep 3
- 9:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Illinois home
- Gies Memorial Stadium
- Captured market
- ILL -27.5
- DraftKings · Aug 11, 10:09 PM EDT
- Player model
- 14 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Illinois carries the early number into Gies Memorial Stadium.
UAB travels to Illinois at Gies Memorial Stadium. The captured market lists Illinois as a 27.5-point favorite. That number came from DraftKings and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 14 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Katin Houser (ILL), Alex Perry (ILL), and Jayshon Platt (ILL).
Market frame
Illinois is the captured favorite by 27.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
14 player distributions are available, led by Katin Houser (ILL).
Venue context
Illinois is the designated home team at Gies Memorial Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00DraftKings snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:09:50ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
UAB pass protection vs Illinois pass rush
UAB's pass protection graded 69.7 in 2025 (41st of 136); Illinois's pass rush graded 67.8 (43rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Illinois pass protection vs UAB pass rush
Illinois's pass protection graded 64.4 in 2025 (83rd of 136); UAB's pass rush graded 62.4 (103rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Illinois's pass protection.
UAB receiving corps vs Illinois coverage
UAB's receiving corps graded 66.1 in 2025 (44th of 136); Illinois's coverage graded 63.0 (80th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for UAB's receiving corps. UAB's receiving corps returns only 13.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Illinois receiving corps vs UAB coverage
Illinois's receiving corps graded 68.8 in 2025 (16th of 136); UAB's coverage graded 54.7 (136th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Illinois's receiving corps.
UAB rush offense vs Illinois run defense
UAB's rush offense graded 75.7 in 2025 (63rd of 136); Illinois's run defense graded 68.8 (45th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Illinois's run defense.
Illinois rush offense vs UAB run defense
Illinois's rush offense graded 73.8 in 2025 (88th of 136); UAB's run defense graded 61.6 (127th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Illinois's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
UAB
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty MimsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 7.82.5–10.7 | — | — | 3.51.1–5.0 | 4010–55 |
| Bam McReynoldsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 7.12.4–10.9 | — | 328–54 | 1.90.9–3.3 | — |
| Kaleb BrownSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 6.12.3–9.3 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.2 | 349–53 |
| Ja'Vin SimpkinsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 5.61.2–8.6 | — | 307–54 | — | — |
| Antonio FergusonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | TE | 4.71.6–7.5 | — | — | — | 256–43 |
| Roderick Robinson IIbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 4.70.9–8.2 | — | — | — | — |
Illinois
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katin HouserELITE · Tier 2 | QB | 23.311.3–30.5 | 241155–296 | 293–48 | — | — |
| Alex PerryELITE · Tier 2 | WR | 15.76.0–23.0 | — | — | 4.21.0–6.0 | 6326–88 |
| Jayshon Plattbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 12.64.0–21.2 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.0 | 4915–79 |
| Hudson ClementVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 11.13.9–16.6 | — | — | 3.51.0–5.0 | 5016–73 |
| Kaden FeaginHIGH CEILING · Tier 4 | TE | 11.53.8–16.0 | — | 389–63 | — | 140–25 |
| Aidan LaugheryVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.82.7–13.8 | — | 3910–62 | — | — |
| Ca'Lil Valentinebalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 10.83.0–15.2 | — | 4815–77 | — | — |
| Collin Dixonbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 10.03.1–15.2 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.2 | 4112–64 |
UAB
- Receptions
- 3.5
- Rec yds
- 40
- Rush yds
- 32
- Receptions
- 1.9
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rush yds
- 30
- Rec yds
- 25
Illinois
- Pass yds
- 241
- Rush yds
- 29
- Receptions
- 4.2
- Rec yds
- 63
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 49
- Receptions
- 3.5
- Rec yds
- 50
- Rush yds
- 38
- Rec yds
- 14
- Rush yds
- 39
- Rush yds
- 48
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 41
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katin HouserQB · ILL | Passing yards | 241.1 | 233.9 | 155.2–296.4 | Shop the line |
| Alex PerryWR · ILL | Receiving yards | 63.4 | 50.5 | 25.9–87.5 | Shop the line |
| Jayshon PlattWR · ILL | Receiving yards | 48.7 | 37.1 | 14.5–78.6 | Shop the line |
| Hudson ClementWR · ILL | Receiving yards | 50.4 | 41.6 | 15.8–72.8 | Shop the line |
| Kaden FeaginTE · ILL | Receiving yards | 14.4 | 9.0 | 0.0–25.3 | Shop the line |
| Aidan LaugheryRB · ILL | Rushing yards | 38.5 | 32.5 | 10.4–61.6 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 241.1
- Median
- 233.9
- 20th–80th
- 155.2–296.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 63.4
- Median
- 50.5
- 20th–80th
- 25.9–87.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 48.7
- Median
- 37.1
- 20th–80th
- 14.5–78.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 50.4
- Median
- 41.6
- 20th–80th
- 15.8–72.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 14.4
- Median
- 9.0
- 20th–80th
- 0.0–25.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 38.5
- Median
- 32.5
- 20th–80th
- 10.4–61.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated