Toledo Rockets at Michigan State Spartans college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Fri, Sep 4
- 8:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Michigan State home
- Spartan Stadium
- Captured market
- MSU -11.5
- DraftKings · Aug 11, 10:09 PM EDT
- Player model
- 13 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Michigan State carries the early number into Spartan Stadium.
Toledo travels to Michigan State at Spartan Stadium. The captured market lists Michigan State as a 11.5-point favorite. That number came from DraftKings and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 13 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Cam Fancher (MSU), Cam Edwards (MSU), and Alessio Milivojevic (MSU).
Market frame
Michigan State is the captured favorite by 11.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
13 player distributions are available, led by Cam Fancher (MSU).
Venue context
Michigan State is the designated home team at Spartan Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00DraftKings snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:09:50ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Toledo pass protection vs Michigan State pass rush
Toledo's pass protection graded 58.9 in 2025 (111th of 136); Michigan State's pass rush graded 62.2 (109th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Michigan State pass protection vs Toledo pass rush
Michigan State's pass protection graded 58.3 in 2025 (118th of 136); Toledo's pass rush graded 74.9 (4th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Toledo's pass rush. Toledo's pass rush returns only 3.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Toledo receiving corps vs Michigan State coverage
Toledo's receiving corps graded 65.0 in 2025 (60th of 136); Michigan State's coverage graded 65.7 (51st). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Michigan State receiving corps vs Toledo coverage
Michigan State's receiving corps graded 67.7 in 2025 (21st of 136); Toledo's coverage graded 70.0 (19th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Toledo rush offense vs Michigan State run defense
Toledo's rush offense graded 75.3 in 2025 (69th of 136); Michigan State's run defense graded 64.2 (110th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Toledo's rush offense. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Michigan State rush offense vs Toledo run defense
Michigan State's rush offense graded 74.6 in 2025 (76th of 136); Toledo's run defense graded 74.8 (6th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Toledo's run defense. Toledo's run defense returns only 10.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Toledo
3 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Crosby Jr.balanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.01.9–9.8 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.1 | 287–43 |
| Cooper RuskHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 5.21.3–9.0 | — | — | — | — |
| Sam Leebalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 5.11.6–8.3 | — | — | — | 235–29 |
Michigan State
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam FancherHIGH CEILING · Tier 4 | QB | 16.96.7–27.5 | 17080–262 | 419–66 | — | — |
| Cam EdwardsELITE · Tier 3 | RB | 19.77.7–26.5 | — | 7328–106 | 2.40.9–3.8 | 150–25 |
| Alessio Milivojevicbalanced · Tier 4 | QB | 15.75.3–24.9 | 212112–285 | — | — | — |
| Chrishon McCrayHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 11.23.6–16.5 | — | — | 3.61.0–6.1 | 4713–71 |
| Marvis Parrishbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 10.83.2–17.1 | — | 4816–82 | 1.70.0–3.2 | — |
| Jameel Gardner Jr.ELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 9.83.0–14.8 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.8 | 3913–60 |
| Rodney Bullard Jr.HIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 8.12.2–13.9 | — | — | 2.51.1–3.7 | 3410–64 |
| Brandon Tullisbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 8.92.2–13.0 | — | 378–60 | — | — |
| KK Smithbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 7.42.0–11.7 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 288–47 |
| Jay CoyneWeekly model | FB | 6.11.4–9.5 | — | — | — | — |
Toledo
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rec yds
- 23
Michigan State
- Pass yds
- 170
- Rush yds
- 41
- Rush yds
- 73
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 15
- Pass yds
- 212
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 47
- Rush yds
- 48
- Receptions
- 1.7
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rush yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 28
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam FancherQB · MSU | Passing yards | 170.1 | 187.5 | 80.2–261.5 | Shop the line |
| Cam EdwardsRB · MSU | Rushing yards | 73.1 | 62.6 | 27.5–106.0 | Shop the line |
| Alessio MilivojevicQB · MSU | Passing yards | 211.7 | 211.4 | 112.2–284.8 | Shop the line |
| Chrishon McCrayWR · MSU | Receiving yards | 46.6 | 38.6 | 12.8–71.4 | Shop the line |
| Marvis ParrishRB · MSU | Rushing yards | 47.5 | 43.7 | 16.0–82.1 | Shop the line |
| Jameel Gardner Jr.WR · MSU | Receiving yards | 38.7 | 29.3 | 12.5–60.4 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 170.1
- Median
- 187.5
- 20th–80th
- 80.2–261.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 73.1
- Median
- 62.6
- 20th–80th
- 27.5–106.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 211.7
- Median
- 211.4
- 20th–80th
- 112.2–284.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 46.6
- Median
- 38.6
- 20th–80th
- 12.8–71.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 47.5
- Median
- 43.7
- 20th–80th
- 16.0–82.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 38.7
- Median
- 29.3
- 20th–80th
- 12.5–60.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated