Michigan State Spartans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 19
- 7:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- Notre Dame home
- Notre Dame Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 19 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Michigan State visits Notre Dame in Week 3.
Michigan State travels to Notre Dame at Notre Dame Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 19 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Cam Edwards (MSU), CJ Carr (ND), and Cam Fancher (MSU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
19 player distributions are available, led by Cam Edwards (MSU).
Venue context
Notre Dame is the designated home team at Notre Dame Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:00+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:00+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Michigan State pass protection vs Notre Dame pass rush
Michigan State's pass protection graded 58.3 in 2025 (118th of 136); Notre Dame's pass rush graded 69.4 (22nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Notre Dame's pass rush.
Notre Dame pass protection vs Michigan State pass rush
Notre Dame's pass protection graded 67.4 in 2025 (57th of 136); Michigan State's pass rush graded 62.2 (109th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Notre Dame's pass protection.
Michigan State receiving corps vs Notre Dame coverage
Michigan State's receiving corps graded 67.7 in 2025 (21st of 136); Notre Dame's coverage graded 70.8 (14th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Notre Dame receiving corps vs Michigan State coverage
Notre Dame's receiving corps graded 72.2 in 2025 (5th of 136); Michigan State's coverage graded 65.7 (51st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Notre Dame's receiving corps.
Michigan State rush offense vs Notre Dame run defense
Michigan State's rush offense graded 74.6 in 2025 (76th of 136); Notre Dame's run defense graded 72.4 (16th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Notre Dame's run defense.
Notre Dame rush offense vs Michigan State run defense
Notre Dame's rush offense graded 84.3 in 2025 (3rd of 136); Michigan State's run defense graded 64.2 (110th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Notre Dame's rush offense. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Michigan State
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam EdwardsELITE · Tier 2 | RB | 19.27.6–26.2 | — | 7226–102 | 2.50.9–3.8 | 160–22 |
| Cam FancherHIGH CEILING · Tier 4 | QB | 15.16.3–27.5 | 15771–243 | 407–64 | — | — |
| Alessio MilivojevicSAFE FLOOR · Tier 4 | QB | 14.35.2–23.9 | 202106–268 | — | — | — |
| Chrishon McCrayELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 10.43.5–16.2 | — | — | 3.61.0–6.1 | 4713–68 |
| Marvis Parrishbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 10.03.1–17.1 | — | 4615–78 | 1.80.0–3.3 | — |
| Jameel Gardner Jr.SAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 9.32.9–14.8 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.8 | 3812–57 |
| Rodney Bullard Jr.HIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 7.52.2–13.9 | — | — | 2.51.1–3.7 | 3410–61 |
| Brandon TullisHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 8.42.2–13.0 | — | 357–56 | — | — |
| KK SmithVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 7.12.0–11.7 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 288–42 |
| Jay CoyneWeekly model | FB | 5.71.4–9.5 | — | — | — | — |
Notre Dame
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Carrbalanced · Tier 4 | QB | 16.35.5–25.5 | 20895–254 | — | — | — |
| Aneyas WilliamsVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.83.3–16.1 | — | 4214–59 | — | — |
| Jordan FaisonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 10.13.3–16.2 | — | — | 3.51.0–5.3 | 4915–69 |
| Cooper FlanaganVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.61.9–12.2 | — | — | — | 278–33 |
| Kedren Youngbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.11.8–11.6 | — | 357–59 | — | — |
| Jaden GreathouseSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.92.0–10.8 | — | — | — | 349–51 |
| Ty Washingtonbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 6.61.9–10.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Quincy Porterbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 5.81.7–9.4 | — | — | — | 257–33 |
| Mylan Grahambalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.01.7–10.0 | — | — | — | 267–37 |
Michigan State
- Rush yds
- 72
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 16
- Pass yds
- 157
- Rush yds
- 40
- Pass yds
- 202
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 47
- Rush yds
- 46
- Receptions
- 1.8
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 38
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rush yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 28
Notre Dame
- Pass yds
- 208
- Rush yds
- 42
- Receptions
- 3.5
- Rec yds
- 49
- Rec yds
- 27
- Rush yds
- 35
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 25
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam EdwardsRB · MSU | Rushing yards | 72.3 | 61.3 | 25.9–101.9 | Shop the line |
| CJ CarrQB · ND | Passing yards | 207.8 | 197.6 | 95.3–253.5 | Shop the line |
| Cam FancherQB · MSU | Passing yards | 156.9 | 175.4 | 71.3–243.4 | Shop the line |
| Alessio MilivojevicQB · MSU | Passing yards | 201.9 | 202.8 | 105.5–268.2 | Shop the line |
| Chrishon McCrayWR · MSU | Receiving yards | 47.0 | 38.3 | 12.7–67.9 | Shop the line |
| Aneyas WilliamsRB · ND | Rushing yards | 41.8 | 38.0 | 13.9–58.8 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 72.3
- Median
- 61.3
- 20th–80th
- 25.9–101.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 207.8
- Median
- 197.6
- 20th–80th
- 95.3–253.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 156.9
- Median
- 175.4
- 20th–80th
- 71.3–243.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 201.9
- Median
- 202.8
- 20th–80th
- 105.5–268.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 47.0
- Median
- 38.3
- 20th–80th
- 12.7–67.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 41.8
- Median
- 38.0
- 20th–80th
- 13.9–58.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated