Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting Illini college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 3
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Illinois home
- Gies Memorial Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 18 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Purdue visits Illinois in Week 5.
Purdue travels to Illinois at Gies Memorial Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 18 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Katin Houser (ILL), Alex Perry (ILL), and Asaad Waseem (PUR).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
18 player distributions are available, led by Katin Houser (ILL).
Venue context
Illinois is the designated home team at Gies Memorial Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:03+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:03+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Purdue pass protection vs Illinois pass rush
Purdue's pass protection graded 60.2 in 2025 (105th of 136); Illinois's pass rush graded 67.8 (43rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Illinois's pass rush. Illinois's pass rush returns only 21.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Illinois pass protection vs Purdue pass rush
Illinois's pass protection graded 64.4 in 2025 (83rd of 136); Purdue's pass rush graded 60.7 (125th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Illinois's pass protection.
Purdue receiving corps vs Illinois coverage
Purdue's receiving corps graded 61.1 in 2025 (109th of 136); Illinois's coverage graded 63.0 (80th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Illinois's coverage.
Illinois receiving corps vs Purdue coverage
Illinois's receiving corps graded 68.8 in 2025 (16th of 136); Purdue's coverage graded 56.1 (133rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Illinois's receiving corps.
Purdue rush offense vs Illinois run defense
Purdue's rush offense graded 72.1 in 2025 (104th of 136); Illinois's run defense graded 68.8 (45th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Illinois's run defense.
Illinois rush offense vs Purdue run defense
Illinois's rush offense graded 73.8 in 2025 (88th of 136); Purdue's run defense graded 59.3 (134th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Illinois's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Purdue
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asaad WaseemVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 11.53.9–17.7 | — | — | 4.31.0–6.8 | 5318–73 |
| Ryan BrowneELITE · Tier 6 | QB | 9.82.5–19.0 | 15149–243 | — | — | — |
| Antonio HarrisVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 10.63.3–16.7 | — | 4211–68 | 1.90.0–3.2 | 150–25 |
| Corey Smithbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 8.93.0–14.2 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.6 | 4313–60 |
| George BurhennSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 8.52.8–14.2 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.9 | 3813–59 |
| Xavier TownsendHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 7.52.3–11.5 | — | — | — | 3810–54 |
| Jerrick GibsonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.41.1–11.4 | — | 304–51 | — | — |
| Jesse Watsonbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.31.7–10.0 | — | — | — | — |
| De'Nylon MorrissetteHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 6.41.9–10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Jaylan Hornsbybalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 5.71.7–9.7 | — | — | — | 257–34 |
Illinois
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katin Houserbalanced · Tier 5 | QB | 20.58.9–28.9 | 211142–276 | 29-0–49 | — | — |
| Alex PerryELITE · Tier 2 | WR | 15.15.7–22.5 | — | — | 4.31.0–6.1 | 6325–84 |
| Jayshon PlattELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 11.83.7–19.8 | — | — | 3.51.0–5.1 | 4914–74 |
| Hudson ClementSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 9.73.7–15.4 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.1 | 5015–68 |
| Ca'Lil Valentinebalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 10.02.6–14.5 | — | 4512–71 | — | — |
| Kaden FeaginHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 9.63.1–14.9 | — | 346–57 | — | 150–20 |
| Collin DixonHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 8.82.8–13.9 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.3 | 4112–59 |
| Aidan Laugherybalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 8.22.3–12.7 | — | 357–56 | — | — |
Purdue
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 53
- Pass yds
- 151
- Rush yds
- 42
- Receptions
- 1.9
- Rec yds
- 15
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 38
- Rec yds
- 38
- Rush yds
- 30
- Rec yds
- 25
Illinois
- Pass yds
- 211
- Rush yds
- 29
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 63
- Receptions
- 3.5
- Rec yds
- 49
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 50
- Rush yds
- 45
- Rush yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 15
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 41
- Rush yds
- 35
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katin HouserQB · ILL | Passing yards | 211.1 | 210.0 | 142.2–275.6 | Shop the line |
| Alex PerryWR · ILL | Receiving yards | 62.5 | 48.9 | 25.3–83.6 | Shop the line |
| Asaad WaseemWR · PUR | Receiving yards | 52.6 | 40.9 | 18.2–73.0 | Shop the line |
| Jayshon PlattWR · ILL | Receiving yards | 48.8 | 34.7 | 14.0–73.6 | Shop the line |
| Ryan BrowneQB · PUR | Passing yards | 150.5 | 179.9 | 49.3–242.6 | Shop the line |
| Hudson ClementWR · ILL | Receiving yards | 49.6 | 39.4 | 15.1–68.3 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 211.1
- Median
- 210.0
- 20th–80th
- 142.2–275.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 62.5
- Median
- 48.9
- 20th–80th
- 25.3–83.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 52.6
- Median
- 40.9
- 20th–80th
- 18.2–73.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 48.8
- Median
- 34.7
- 20th–80th
- 14.0–73.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 150.5
- Median
- 179.9
- 20th–80th
- 49.3–242.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 49.6
- Median
- 39.4
- 20th–80th
- 15.1–68.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated