Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden Gophers college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 3
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Minnesota home
- Huntington Bank Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 17 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Michigan visits Minnesota in Week 5.
Michigan travels to Minnesota at Huntington Bank Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 17 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (MICH), Darius Taylor (MINN), and Jordan Marshall (MICH).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
17 player distributions are available, led by Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (MICH).
Venue context
Minnesota is the designated home team at Huntington Bank Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:03+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:03+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Michigan pass protection vs Minnesota pass rush
Michigan's pass protection graded 69.7 in 2025 (40th of 136); Minnesota's pass rush graded 63.3 (93rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Michigan's pass protection.
Minnesota pass protection vs Michigan pass rush
Minnesota's pass protection graded 66.7 in 2025 (64th of 136); Michigan's pass rush graded 67.7 (45th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Michigan's pass rush. Michigan's pass rush returns only 24.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Michigan receiving corps vs Minnesota coverage
Michigan's receiving corps graded 63.6 in 2025 (81st of 136); Minnesota's coverage graded 61.8 (99th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Michigan's receiving corps.
Minnesota receiving corps vs Michigan coverage
Minnesota's receiving corps graded 64.5 in 2025 (68th of 136); Michigan's coverage graded 65.0 (65th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Michigan rush offense vs Minnesota run defense
Michigan's rush offense graded 81.2 in 2025 (14th of 136); Minnesota's run defense graded 65.5 (87th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Michigan's rush offense.
Minnesota rush offense vs Michigan run defense
Minnesota's rush offense graded 74.5 in 2025 (79th of 136); Michigan's run defense graded 71.9 (17th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Michigan's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Michigan
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Fowler-NicolosiELITE · Tier 5 | QB | 17.36.2–25.6 | 222139–273 | — | — | — |
| Jordan Marshallbalanced · Tier 5 | RB | 14.85.5–22.5 | — | 6024–92 | — | — |
| Andrew MarshSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 14.54.4–21.6 | — | — | 4.41.1–6.7 | 5520–88 |
| Bryce UnderwoodSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 10.92.9–20.8 | 16277–243 | — | — | — |
| Bryson KuzdzalHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 9.53.1–15.8 | — | 4612–75 | — | — |
| JJ BuchananHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 9.13.1–14.0 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.2 | 4514–62 |
| Hogan Hansenbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 8.02.4–12.0 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.1 | 3610–52 |
| Zack MarshallELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.62.5–11.6 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.2 | 3611–53 |
| Tomas O'MearaHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 5.91.5–11.0 | — | 347–58 | — | — |
Minnesota
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius TaylorELITE · Tier 5 | RB | 17.56.1–23.5 | — | 6719–97 | 3.10.9–4.9 | 250–36 |
| Drake LindseySAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 11.23.8–20.8 | 18077–243 | — | — | — |
| Javon Tracybalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 10.54.1–18.0 | — | — | 3.81.1–6.1 | 4613–65 |
| Michael MerdingerELITE · Tier 6 | QB | 10.42.3–19.6 | 15945–237 | — | — | — |
| Zion Steptoebalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 8.72.5–13.7 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.4 | 3811–59 |
| Noah JenningsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 7.42.5–11.5 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.3 | 3711–54 |
| Perry ThompsonHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 7.42.1–11.4 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.3 | 339–50 |
| Jalen SmithELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 6.92.2–10.6 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.0 | 319–46 |
Michigan
- Pass yds
- 222
- Rush yds
- 60
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 55
- Pass yds
- 162
- Rush yds
- 46
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 45
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 36
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 36
- Rush yds
- 34
Minnesota
- Rush yds
- 67
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 25
- Pass yds
- 180
- Receptions
- 3.8
- Rec yds
- 46
- Pass yds
- 159
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 38
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 33
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Fowler-NicolosiQB · MICH | Passing yards | 221.7 | 226.2 | 138.7–273.2 | Shop the line |
| Darius TaylorRB · MINN | Rushing yards | 66.8 | 58.7 | 18.5–96.5 | Shop the line |
| Jordan MarshallRB · MICH | Rushing yards | 59.7 | 52.7 | 23.5–92.4 | Shop the line |
| Drake LindseyQB · MINN | Passing yards | 179.9 | 193.2 | 77.2–243.3 | Shop the line |
| Andrew MarshWR · MICH | Receiving yards | 54.7 | 45.3 | 19.6–87.5 | Shop the line |
| Bryce UnderwoodQB · MICH | Passing yards | 162.3 | 178.7 | 76.7–242.8 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 221.7
- Median
- 226.2
- 20th–80th
- 138.7–273.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 66.8
- Median
- 58.7
- 20th–80th
- 18.5–96.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 59.7
- Median
- 52.7
- 20th–80th
- 23.5–92.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 179.9
- Median
- 193.2
- 20th–80th
- 77.2–243.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 54.7
- Median
- 45.3
- 20th–80th
- 19.6–87.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 162.3
- Median
- 178.7
- 20th–80th
- 76.7–242.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated