Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State Spartans college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 10
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Michigan State home
- Spartan Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 18 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Illinois visits Michigan State in Week 6.
Illinois travels to Michigan State at Spartan Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 18 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Katin Houser (ILL), Cam Edwards (MSU), and Cam Fancher (MSU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
18 player distributions are available, led by Katin Houser (ILL).
Venue context
Michigan State is the designated home team at Spartan Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:05+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:05+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Illinois pass protection vs Michigan State pass rush
Illinois's pass protection graded 64.4 in 2025 (83rd of 136); Michigan State's pass rush graded 62.2 (109th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Illinois's pass protection.
Michigan State pass protection vs Illinois pass rush
Michigan State's pass protection graded 58.3 in 2025 (118th of 136); Illinois's pass rush graded 67.8 (43rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Illinois's pass rush. Illinois's pass rush returns only 21.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Illinois receiving corps vs Michigan State coverage
Illinois's receiving corps graded 68.8 in 2025 (16th of 136); Michigan State's coverage graded 65.7 (51st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Illinois's receiving corps.
Michigan State receiving corps vs Illinois coverage
Michigan State's receiving corps graded 67.7 in 2025 (21st of 136); Illinois's coverage graded 63.0 (80th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Michigan State's receiving corps.
Illinois rush offense vs Michigan State run defense
Illinois's rush offense graded 73.8 in 2025 (88th of 136); Michigan State's run defense graded 64.2 (110th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Illinois's rush offense.
Michigan State rush offense vs Illinois run defense
Michigan State's rush offense graded 74.6 in 2025 (76th of 136); Illinois's run defense graded 68.8 (45th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Illinois's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Illinois
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katin Houserbalanced · Tier 2 | QB | 20.78.9–28.9 | 211142–276 | 29-0–49 | — | — |
| Alex PerryELITE · Tier 1 | WR | 15.65.7–22.5 | — | — | 4.31.0–6.1 | 6325–84 |
| Jayshon PlattELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 11.83.7–19.8 | — | — | 3.51.0–5.1 | 4914–74 |
| Hudson ClementELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 9.73.7–15.4 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.1 | 5015–68 |
| Ca'Lil ValentineSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 10.02.6–14.5 | — | 4412–71 | — | — |
| Kaden Feaginbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 9.63.1–14.9 | — | 346–57 | — | 150–20 |
| Collin DixonHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 8.82.8–13.9 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.3 | 4112–59 |
| Aidan Laugherybalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 8.22.3–12.7 | — | 347–56 | — | — |
Michigan State
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam EdwardsELITE · Tier 2 | RB | 18.87.6–26.5 | — | 7226–102 | 2.50.9–3.8 | 160–22 |
| Cam FancherHIGH CEILING · Tier 3 | QB | 15.16.3–27.5 | 15771–243 | 417–64 | — | — |
| Alessio MilivojevicSAFE FLOOR · Tier 3 | QB | 14.25.2–23.9 | 202106–268 | — | — | — |
| Chrishon McCrayVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 10.43.6–16.2 | — | — | 3.61.0–6.1 | 4713–68 |
| Marvis Parrishbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 10.03.1–17.1 | — | 4615–78 | 1.80.0–3.3 | — |
| Jameel Gardner Jr.ELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 9.32.9–14.8 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.8 | 3812–57 |
| Rodney Bullard Jr.HIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 7.52.2–13.9 | — | — | 2.51.1–3.7 | 3410–61 |
| Brandon TullisHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 8.42.2–13.0 | — | 357–56 | — | — |
| KK SmithVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 7.12.0–11.7 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 288–42 |
| Jay CoyneWeekly model | FB | 5.71.4–9.5 | — | — | — | — |
Illinois
- Pass yds
- 211
- Rush yds
- 29
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 63
- Receptions
- 3.5
- Rec yds
- 49
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 50
- Rush yds
- 44
- Rush yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 15
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 41
- Rush yds
- 34
Michigan State
- Rush yds
- 72
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 16
- Pass yds
- 157
- Rush yds
- 41
- Pass yds
- 202
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 47
- Rush yds
- 46
- Receptions
- 1.8
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 38
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rush yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 28
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katin HouserQB · ILL | Passing yards | 211.1 | 210.0 | 142.2–275.6 | Shop the line |
| Cam EdwardsRB · MSU | Rushing yards | 71.9 | 61.3 | 25.9–101.9 | Shop the line |
| Cam FancherQB · MSU | Passing yards | 156.9 | 175.4 | 71.3–243.4 | Shop the line |
| Alessio MilivojevicQB · MSU | Passing yards | 201.9 | 202.8 | 105.5–268.2 | Shop the line |
| Alex PerryWR · ILL | Receiving yards | 62.5 | 48.9 | 25.3–83.6 | Shop the line |
| Chrishon McCrayWR · MSU | Receiving yards | 47.0 | 38.3 | 12.7–67.9 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 211.1
- Median
- 210.0
- 20th–80th
- 142.2–275.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 71.9
- Median
- 61.3
- 20th–80th
- 25.9–101.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 156.9
- Median
- 175.4
- 20th–80th
- 71.3–243.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 201.9
- Median
- 202.8
- 20th–80th
- 105.5–268.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 62.5
- Median
- 48.9
- 20th–80th
- 25.3–83.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 47.0
- Median
- 38.3
- 20th–80th
- 12.7–67.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated