Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern Wildcats college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 10
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Northwestern home
- Ryan Field
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 19 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Ball State visits Northwestern in Week 6.
Ball State travels to Northwestern at Ryan Field. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 19 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Aidan Chiles (NU), Caleb Komolafe (NU), and Nicco Marchiol (NU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
19 player distributions are available, led by Aidan Chiles (NU).
Venue context
Northwestern is the designated home team at Ryan Field.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:05+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:05+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Ball State pass protection vs Northwestern pass rush
Ball State's pass protection graded 58.1 in 2025 (119th of 136); Northwestern's pass rush graded 68.0 (40th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Northwestern's pass rush.
Northwestern pass protection vs Ball State pass rush
Northwestern's pass protection graded 75.4 in 2025 (8th of 136); Ball State's pass rush graded 71.6 (6th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Ball State receiving corps vs Northwestern coverage
Ball State's receiving corps graded 60.0 in 2025 (125th of 136); Northwestern's coverage graded 62.0 (97th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Northwestern's coverage.
Northwestern receiving corps vs Ball State coverage
Northwestern's receiving corps graded 64.4 in 2025 (70th of 136); Ball State's coverage graded 57.6 (128th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Northwestern's receiving corps.
Ball State rush offense vs Northwestern run defense
Ball State's rush offense graded 67.1 in 2025 (131st of 136); Northwestern's run defense graded 65.2 (90th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Northwestern's run defense.
Northwestern rush offense vs Ball State run defense
Northwestern's rush offense graded 76.3 in 2025 (58th of 136); Ball State's run defense graded 62.8 (118th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Northwestern's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Ball State
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ HortonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.72.1–12.4 | — | — | 1.80.0–3.1 | — |
| Donovan HamiltonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 8.12.4–12.7 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.7 | 3911–56 |
| Jabari Smith Jr.SAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 7.32.1–11.9 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.7 | 309–44 |
| Jalen BondsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 7.22.0–12.1 | — | 356–56 | — | 11-0–12 |
| Corey Thompson Jr.balanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.51.9–10.1 | — | — | — | 298–44 |
| Isaiah ThackerHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.01.1–10.4 | — | — | — | — |
Northwestern
13 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan ChilesHIGH CEILING · Tier 3 | QB | 17.25.9–27.2 | 15971–236 | — | — | — |
| Caleb Komolafebalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 15.75.5–23.9 | — | 7025–103 | 1.80.9–3.3 | — |
| Nicco Marchiolbalanced · Tier 5 | QB | 10.52.5–19.3 | 15150–236 | — | — | — |
| Griffin Wildebalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 11.34.0–19.8 | — | — | 4.21.0–6.3 | 5317–80 |
| Hayden Eligon IIVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 11.24.1–17.2 | — | — | 3.91.0–5.7 | 5317–80 |
| Gavin Frakesbalanced · Tier 5 | QB | 9.62.0–17.1 | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Honigbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 7.62.1–11.8 | — | — | — | 317–42 |
| Robby PreckelHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 8.32.5–12.7 | — | 388–68 | — | — |
| Joseph Himon IIELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.92.0–13.0 | — | 358–57 | — | — |
| Drew WagnerHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 7.42.2–12.1 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.0 | 369–55 |
| Frank Covey IVHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.81.8–11.0 | — | — | — | 288–40 |
| Mar'Kel PorterHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 6.61.7–11.4 | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky AhumaraezeSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.01.7–10.1 | — | — | — | 287–35 |
Ball State
- Receptions
- 1.8
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 30
- Rush yds
- 35
- Rec yds
- 11
- Rec yds
- 29
Northwestern
- Pass yds
- 159
- Rush yds
- 70
- Receptions
- 1.8
- Pass yds
- 151
- Receptions
- 4.2
- Rec yds
- 53
- Receptions
- 3.9
- Rec yds
- 53
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rush yds
- 38
- Rush yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 36
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rec yds
- 28
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan ChilesQB · NU | Passing yards | 158.8 | 174.1 | 70.9–235.8 | Shop the line |
| Caleb KomolafeRB · NU | Rushing yards | 70.3 | 60.0 | 24.7–102.7 | Shop the line |
| Nicco MarchiolQB · NU | Passing yards | 150.7 | 171.1 | 49.9–236.0 | Shop the line |
| Griffin WildeWR · NU | Receiving yards | 52.7 | 45.0 | 16.6–80.3 | Shop the line |
| Hayden Eligon IIWR · NU | Receiving yards | 52.7 | 41.6 | 17.1–80.0 | Shop the line |
| TJ HortonRB · BALL | Receptions | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.0–3.1 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 158.8
- Median
- 174.1
- 20th–80th
- 70.9–235.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 70.3
- Median
- 60.0
- 20th–80th
- 24.7–102.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 150.7
- Median
- 171.1
- 20th–80th
- 49.9–236.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 52.7
- Median
- 45.0
- 20th–80th
- 16.6–80.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 52.7
- Median
- 41.6
- 20th–80th
- 17.1–80.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receptions
- Projection
- 1.8
- Median
- 1.0
- 20th–80th
- 0.0–3.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated