Fresno State Bulldogs at San José State Spartans college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 19
- 11:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- San José State home
- CEFCU Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 13 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Fresno State visits San José State in Week 3.
Fresno State travels to San José State at CEFCU Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 13 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Luke Weaver (SJSU), Josiah Freeman (FRES), and Rayshon Luke (FRES).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
13 player distributions are available, led by Luke Weaver (SJSU).
Venue context
San José State is the designated home team at CEFCU Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:00+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:00+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Fresno State pass protection vs San José State pass rush
Fresno State's pass protection graded 73.3 in 2025 (14th of 136); San José State's pass rush graded 63.9 (86th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Fresno State's pass protection.
San José State pass protection vs Fresno State pass rush
San José State's pass protection graded 55.2 in 2025 (126th of 136); Fresno State's pass rush graded 63.2 (94th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Fresno State's pass rush.
Fresno State receiving corps vs San José State coverage
Fresno State's receiving corps graded 60.6 in 2025 (116th of 136); San José State's coverage graded 55.1 (135th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Fresno State's receiving corps.
San José State receiving corps vs Fresno State coverage
San José State's receiving corps graded 62.8 in 2025 (97th of 136); Fresno State's coverage graded 68.7 (24th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Fresno State's coverage.
Fresno State rush offense vs San José State run defense
Fresno State's rush offense graded 77.2 in 2025 (51st of 136); San José State's run defense graded 71.6 (23rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for San José State's run defense. San José State's run defense returns only 17.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
San José State rush offense vs Fresno State run defense
San José State's rush offense graded 75.3 in 2025 (70th of 136); Fresno State's run defense graded 65.0 (93rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for San José State's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Fresno State
7 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josiah FreemanELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 10.93.9–16.8 | — | — | 3.91.1–5.8 | 4615–67 |
| Rayshon Lukebalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 10.53.7–17.4 | — | 4413–63 | 2.30.0–4.0 | 160–20 |
| Bryson DonelsonELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.22.2–12.7 | — | 378–61 | — | — |
| Jahlil McClainbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 7.32.3–11.5 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.1 | 339–48 |
| Brandon RamirezHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 7.61.7–11.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Jordan Malau'uluSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.7–10.2 | — | — | — | 277–34 |
| Jayon FarrarELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.8–10.5 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 297–38 |
San José State
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke WeaverHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | QB | 11.33.4–21.0 | 17752–252 | — | — | — |
| Tama AmisoneHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 9.21.0–18.1 | — | 24-2–47 | — | — |
| Viliami TeuVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.91.6–11.2 | — | 344–55 | — | — |
| Jabari BatesHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 6.91.7–11.3 | — | 345–54 | — | — |
| Cooper Hochbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.31.8–10.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Malachi RileyVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.01.6–9.7 | — | — | — | 267–32 |
Fresno State
- Receptions
- 3.9
- Rec yds
- 46
- Rush yds
- 44
- Receptions
- 2.3
- Rec yds
- 16
- Rush yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rec yds
- 27
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 29
San José State
- Pass yds
- 177
- Rush yds
- 24
- Rush yds
- 34
- Rush yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke WeaverQB · SJSU | Passing yards | 176.9 | 193.8 | 51.8–251.6 | Shop the line |
| Josiah FreemanWR · FRES | Receiving yards | 45.5 | 36.7 | 15.0–67.0 | Shop the line |
| Rayshon LukeRB · FRES | Rushing yards | 44.0 | 42.0 | 12.9–63.0 | Shop the line |
| Tama AmisoneWR · SJSU | Rushing yards | 23.8 | 18.8 | -1.7–46.5 | Shop the line |
| Bryson DonelsonRB · FRES | Rushing yards | 36.6 | 34.6 | 8.4–61.3 | Shop the line |
| Jahlil McClainWR · FRES | Receiving yards | 33.2 | 23.3 | 8.6–48.1 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 176.9
- Median
- 193.8
- 20th–80th
- 51.8–251.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 45.5
- Median
- 36.7
- 20th–80th
- 15.0–67.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 44.0
- Median
- 42.0
- 20th–80th
- 12.9–63.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 23.8
- Median
- 18.8
- 20th–80th
- -1.7–46.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 36.6
- Median
- 34.6
- 20th–80th
- 8.4–61.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 33.2
- Median
- 23.3
- 20th–80th
- 8.6–48.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated