San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo Rockets college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 26
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Toledo home
- Glass Bowl
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 14 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
San Diego State visits Toledo in Week 4.
San Diego State travels to Toledo at Glass Bowl. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 14 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Lucky Sutton (SDSU), Jayden Denegal (SDSU), and Jordan Napier (SDSU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
14 player distributions are available, led by Lucky Sutton (SDSU).
Venue context
Toledo is the designated home team at Glass Bowl.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
San Diego State pass protection vs Toledo pass rush
San Diego State's pass protection graded 65.7 in 2025 (72nd of 136); Toledo's pass rush graded 74.9 (4th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Toledo's pass rush. Toledo's pass rush returns only 3.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Toledo pass protection vs San Diego State pass rush
Toledo's pass protection graded 58.9 in 2025 (111th of 136); San Diego State's pass rush graded 67.8 (42nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for San Diego State's pass rush.
San Diego State receiving corps vs Toledo coverage
San Diego State's receiving corps graded 60.3 in 2025 (120th of 136); Toledo's coverage graded 70.0 (19th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Toledo's coverage. Toledo's coverage returns only 10.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Toledo receiving corps vs San Diego State coverage
Toledo's receiving corps graded 65.0 in 2025 (60th of 136); San Diego State's coverage graded 71.7 (9th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for San Diego State's coverage.
San Diego State rush offense vs Toledo run defense
San Diego State's rush offense graded 80.4 in 2025 (20th of 136); Toledo's run defense graded 74.8 (6th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Toledo rush offense vs San Diego State run defense
Toledo's rush offense graded 75.3 in 2025 (69th of 136); San Diego State's run defense graded 74.0 (10th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for San Diego State's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
San Diego State
11 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucky Suttonbalanced · Tier 5 | RB | 15.96.2–22.5 | — | 8035–110 | — | — |
| Jayden Denegalbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 11.83.4–20.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Jordan Napierbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 10.43.0–15.3 | — | — | 3.61.0–6.2 | 4312–66 |
| Donovan Brownbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 9.83.3–15.9 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.0 | 5115–73 |
| Christian WashingtonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.92.3–14.0 | — | 4714–80 | — | — |
| Jaylon HawkinsVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 8.32.5–12.8 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.6 | 356–59 |
| Jacob BostickELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 8.93.1–14.0 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.3 | 3711–55 |
| Javion KinnardSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 7.32.1–11.3 | — | — | 2.60.9–4.2 | 288–42 |
| Nathan Acevedobalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.72.0–10.8 | — | — | — | 328–46 |
| Justius Lowebalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.61.9–10.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Ayo Shotomide-Kingbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.01.8–10.0 | — | — | — | 278–41 |
Toledo
3 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Crosby Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 6.92.1–10.9 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.1 | 308–43 |
| Cooper RuskHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 5.91.5–10.1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sam Leebalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 5.71.7–9.4 | — | — | — | 256–29 |
San Diego State
- Rush yds
- 80
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 51
- Rush yds
- 47
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rec yds
- 32
- Rec yds
- 27
Toledo
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 30
- Rec yds
- 25
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucky SuttonRB · SDSU | Rushing yards | 80.0 | 66.2 | 35.0–109.7 | Shop the line |
| Jordan NapierWR · SDSU | Receiving yards | 43.3 | 33.6 | 11.5–66.2 | Shop the line |
| Donovan BrownWR · SDSU | Receiving yards | 51.3 | 38.8 | 15.2–72.9 | Shop the line |
| Christian WashingtonRB · SDSU | Rushing yards | 46.8 | 42.0 | 13.7–80.0 | Shop the line |
| Jaylon HawkinsWR · SDSU | Receiving yards | 34.9 | 26.8 | 5.7–58.9 | Shop the line |
| Jacob BostickWR · SDSU | Receiving yards | 37.1 | 26.2 | 10.9–55.2 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 80.0
- Median
- 66.2
- 20th–80th
- 35.0–109.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 43.3
- Median
- 33.6
- 20th–80th
- 11.5–66.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 51.3
- Median
- 38.8
- 20th–80th
- 15.2–72.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 46.8
- Median
- 42.0
- 20th–80th
- 13.7–80.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 34.9
- Median
- 26.8
- 20th–80th
- 5.7–58.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 37.1
- Median
- 26.2
- 20th–80th
- 10.9–55.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated