Troy Trojans at Utah State Aggies college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 26
- 7:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- Utah State home
- Maverik Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 11 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Troy visits Utah State in Week 4.
Troy travels to Utah State at Maverik Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 11 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Bryson Barnes (USU), Goose Crowder (TROY), and Javen Jacobs (USU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
11 player distributions are available, led by Bryson Barnes (USU).
Venue context
Utah State is the designated home team at Maverik Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Troy pass protection vs Utah State pass rush
Troy's pass protection graded 57.0 in 2025 (121st of 136); Utah State's pass rush graded 61.5 (118th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Utah State pass protection vs Troy pass rush
Utah State's pass protection graded 61.0 in 2025 (101st of 136); Troy's pass rush graded 64.0 (83rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Troy's pass rush. Troy's pass rush returns only 23.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Troy receiving corps vs Utah State coverage
Troy's receiving corps graded 63.3 in 2025 (86th of 136); Utah State's coverage graded 64.6 (68th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Utah State's coverage.
Utah State receiving corps vs Troy coverage
Utah State's receiving corps graded 64.9 in 2025 (61st of 136); Troy's coverage graded 62.3 (91st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Utah State's receiving corps.
Troy rush offense vs Utah State run defense
Troy's rush offense graded 68.2 in 2025 (130th of 136); Utah State's run defense graded 66.5 (74th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Utah State's run defense.
Utah State rush offense vs Troy run defense
Utah State's rush offense graded 75.0 in 2025 (72nd of 136); Troy's run defense graded 66.0 (79th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Troy
3 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goose CrowderVOLATILE · Tier 4 | QB | 14.84.8–24.2 | 184115–269 | — | — | — |
| Mojo DortchVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 6.21.7–10.2 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.7 | — |
| Jordan LovettELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.51.2–11.0 | — | — | — | 130–17 |
Utah State
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryson BarnesELITE · Tier 4 | QB | 20.29.0–30.1 | 193121–249 | 6617–98 | — | — |
| Javen Jacobsbalanced · Tier 5 | RB | 11.43.7–19.6 | — | 3711–58 | 2.50.9–4.3 | 230–37 |
| Anthony GarciaSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 10.23.1–18.4 | — | — | 3.01.1–4.7 | 4813–64 |
| Jacob ConoverHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 8.61.1–16.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Noah WhiteELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.11.4–11.5 | — | — | — | 140–17 |
| Josh SterzerHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 6.51.8–10.3 | — | — | — | — |
| Kahanu DavisSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 6.01.8–9.7 | — | — | — | 287–41 |
| Demick Starlingbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.01.7–9.7 | — | — | — | 277–34 |
Troy
- Pass yds
- 184
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 13
Utah State
- Pass yds
- 193
- Rush yds
- 66
- Rush yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 23
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 48
- Rec yds
- 14
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rec yds
- 27
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryson BarnesQB · USU | Passing yards | 192.8 | 186.9 | 120.6–249.4 | Shop the line |
| Goose CrowderQB · TROY | Passing yards | 184.3 | 208.3 | 114.9–268.8 | Shop the line |
| Javen JacobsRB · USU | Rushing yards | 36.9 | 32.2 | 10.5–57.5 | Shop the line |
| Mojo DortchWR · TROY | Receptions | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.0–3.7 | Shop the line |
| Noah WhiteRB · USU | Receiving yards | 13.5 | 5.5 | 0.0–16.7 | Shop the line |
| Kahanu DavisWR · USU | Receiving yards | 27.6 | 19.5 | 7.0–40.6 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 192.8
- Median
- 186.9
- 20th–80th
- 120.6–249.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 184.3
- Median
- 208.3
- 20th–80th
- 114.9–268.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 36.9
- Median
- 32.2
- 20th–80th
- 10.5–57.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receptions
- Projection
- 2.4
- Median
- 1.4
- 20th–80th
- 1.0–3.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 13.5
- Median
- 5.5
- 20th–80th
- 0.0–16.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 27.6
- Median
- 19.5
- 20th–80th
- 7.0–40.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated