UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 12
- 3:45 PM EDT
- Venue
- North Texas home
- DATCU Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 16 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
UNLV visits North Texas in Week 2.
UNLV travels to North Texas at DATCU Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 16 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Tayven Jackson (UNT), Jai'Den Thomas (UNLV), and Corri Milliner (UNT).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
16 player distributions are available, led by Tayven Jackson (UNT).
Venue context
North Texas is the designated home team at DATCU Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:58+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:58+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
UNLV pass protection vs North Texas pass rush
UNLV's pass protection graded 68.4 in 2025 (49th of 136); North Texas's pass rush graded 64.4 (79th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for UNLV's pass protection.
North Texas pass protection vs UNLV pass rush
North Texas's pass protection graded 73.9 in 2025 (13th of 136); UNLV's pass rush graded 68.1 (38th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for North Texas's pass protection. North Texas's pass protection returns only 3.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
UNLV receiving corps vs North Texas coverage
UNLV's receiving corps graded 66.9 in 2025 (32nd of 136); North Texas's coverage graded 70.2 (18th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
North Texas receiving corps vs UNLV coverage
North Texas's receiving corps graded 70.0 in 2025 (9th of 136); UNLV's coverage graded 62.8 (83rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for North Texas's receiving corps. North Texas's receiving corps returns only 5.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
UNLV rush offense vs North Texas run defense
UNLV's rush offense graded 82.8 in 2025 (10th of 136); North Texas's run defense graded 67.3 (61st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UNLV's rush offense.
North Texas rush offense vs UNLV run defense
North Texas's rush offense graded 83.4 in 2025 (7th of 136); UNLV's run defense graded 64.7 (103rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for North Texas's rush offense. North Texas's rush offense returns only 2.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
UNLV
7 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai'Den ThomasELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 13.14.1–21.3 | — | 4914–77 | 2.60.0–4.2 | 170–26 |
| Jackson ArnoldELITE · Tier 5 | QB | 9.81.9–16.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Taeshaun LyonsELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.22.3–13.5 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.2 | 3110–48 |
| Jaylon GloverVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.01.7–11.7 | — | 347–58 | — | — |
| Taz Reddicksbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.92.4–10.9 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.1 | 3710–52 |
| Amorion Walkerbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.82.1–10.5 | — | — | — | 319–46 |
| Kayden McGeeHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.01.2–10.2 | — | — | — | — |
North Texas
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tayven Jacksonbalanced · Tier 3 | QB | 13.15.0–22.3 | 186122–271 | — | — | — |
| Corri Millinerbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 12.94.1–20.7 | — | — | 4.11.0–6.2 | 5519–80 |
| Jahiem Whitebalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 11.53.7–18.5 | — | 5112–79 | 1.90.8–3.2 | — |
| Justin StevensonELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.12.6–13.5 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.3 | 3610–53 |
| Dalton CarnesSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.92.2–10.6 | — | — | — | 318–44 |
| Andy Jeanbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.8–10.2 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.8 | 287–41 |
| Colin PageHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 6.41.1–10.6 | — | 304–51 | — | — |
| Josiah MartinHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.6–10.2 | — | — | 2.31.0–3.6 | — |
| Connor VaughnVOLATILE · Tier 5 | TE | 5.91.4–9.7 | — | — | — | — |
UNLV
- Rush yds
- 49
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 17
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rush yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rec yds
- 31
North Texas
- Pass yds
- 186
- Receptions
- 4.1
- Rec yds
- 55
- Rush yds
- 51
- Receptions
- 1.9
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 36
- Rec yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rush yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.3
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tayven JacksonQB · UNT | Passing yards | 186.0 | 202.5 | 121.8–271.0 | Shop the line |
| Jai'Den ThomasRB · UNLV | Rushing yards | 48.8 | 43.9 | 14.2–76.5 | Shop the line |
| Corri MillinerWR · UNT | Receiving yards | 54.6 | 39.3 | 18.7–80.2 | Shop the line |
| Jahiem WhiteRB · UNT | Rushing yards | 50.7 | 43.2 | 11.8–79.0 | Shop the line |
| Justin StevensonWR · UNT | Receiving yards | 35.7 | 24.3 | 10.1–53.2 | Shop the line |
| Taeshaun LyonsWR · UNLV | Receiving yards | 31.3 | 27.1 | 10.3–47.9 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 186.0
- Median
- 202.5
- 20th–80th
- 121.8–271.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 48.8
- Median
- 43.9
- 20th–80th
- 14.2–76.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 54.6
- Median
- 39.3
- 20th–80th
- 18.7–80.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 50.7
- Median
- 43.2
- 20th–80th
- 11.8–79.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 35.7
- Median
- 24.3
- 20th–80th
- 10.1–53.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 31.3
- Median
- 27.1
- 20th–80th
- 10.3–47.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated