South Florida Bulls at Bowling Green Falcons college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 26
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Bowling Green home
- Doyt L. Perry Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 13 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
South Florida visits Bowling Green in Week 4.
South Florida travels to Bowling Green at Doyt L. Perry Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 13 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Austyn Dendy (BGSU), Kenny Odom (USF), and Michael Van Buren Jr. (USF).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
13 player distributions are available, led by Austyn Dendy (BGSU).
Venue context
Bowling Green is the designated home team at Doyt L. Perry Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
South Florida pass protection vs Bowling Green pass rush
South Florida's pass protection graded 70.9 in 2025 (28th of 136); Bowling Green's pass rush graded 65.8 (63rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for South Florida's pass protection. South Florida's pass protection returns only 22.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Bowling Green pass protection vs South Florida pass rush
Bowling Green's pass protection graded 64.6 in 2025 (82nd of 136); South Florida's pass rush graded 69.7 (18th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for South Florida's pass rush. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
South Florida receiving corps vs Bowling Green coverage
South Florida's receiving corps graded 66.2 in 2025 (38th of 136); Bowling Green's coverage graded 62.8 (82nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for South Florida's receiving corps.
Bowling Green receiving corps vs South Florida coverage
Bowling Green's receiving corps graded 62.5 in 2025 (102nd of 136); South Florida's coverage graded 65.1 (63rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for South Florida's coverage. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
South Florida rush offense vs Bowling Green run defense
South Florida's rush offense graded 78.8 in 2025 (34th of 136); Bowling Green's run defense graded 66.8 (67th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for South Florida's rush offense. South Florida's rush offense returns only 19.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Bowling Green rush offense vs South Florida run defense
Bowling Green's rush offense graded 70.1 in 2025 (119th of 136); South Florida's run defense graded 65.0 (95th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for South Florida's run defense. South Florida's run defense returns only 18.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
South Florida
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Odombalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 12.24.3–20.9 | — | — | 4.41.1–6.6 | 4917–76 |
| Michael Van Buren Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 6 | QB | 11.53.5–21.3 | 13754–236 | 26-2–48 | — | — |
| Mudia ReubenSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 13.44.3–20.4 | — | — | 3.81.0–5.2 | 5519–80 |
| Jaden AlexisELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 8.32.5–13.8 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.2 | 3310–48 |
| Wyatt SullivanSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 7.02.3–10.8 | — | — | — | 308–48 |
| Luke KromenhoekSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 7.90.9–13.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Bryson Rodgersbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.41.7–10.9 | — | — | — | 277–35 |
| JeyQuan SmithHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 6.31.7–10.4 | — | — | — | 287–33 |
Bowling Green
5 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austyn DendyELITE · Tier 3 | RB | 15.77.1–23.8 | — | 7429–108 | — | 140–24 |
| Hunter NajmHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 9.62.1–17.9 | 14911–220 | — | — | — |
| Brennan Ridleybalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.21.9–10.6 | — | — | — | 299–46 |
| Leo KempWeekly model | FB | 5.71.3–9.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Blane CleaverHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 5.81.5–9.9 | — | — | — | — |
South Florida
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 49
- Pass yds
- 137
- Rush yds
- 26
- Receptions
- 3.8
- Rec yds
- 55
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rec yds
- 30
- Rec yds
- 27
- Rec yds
- 28
Bowling Green
- Rush yds
- 74
- Rec yds
- 14
- Pass yds
- 149
- Rec yds
- 29
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austyn DendyRB · BGSU | Rushing yards | 74.3 | 62.8 | 29.4–107.5 | Shop the line |
| Kenny OdomWR · USF | Receiving yards | 48.6 | 42.8 | 16.5–75.6 | Shop the line |
| Michael Van Buren Jr.QB · USF | Passing yards | 137.3 | 171.0 | 54.2–236.0 | Shop the line |
| Mudia ReubenWR · USF | Receiving yards | 54.8 | 41.6 | 18.8–79.7 | Shop the line |
| Hunter NajmQB · BGSU | Passing yards | 149.3 | 171.0 | 11.3–219.8 | Shop the line |
| Jaden AlexisWR · USF | Receiving yards | 32.8 | 24.4 | 9.5–48.3 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 74.3
- Median
- 62.8
- 20th–80th
- 29.4–107.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 48.6
- Median
- 42.8
- 20th–80th
- 16.5–75.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 137.3
- Median
- 171.0
- 20th–80th
- 54.2–236.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 54.8
- Median
- 41.6
- 20th–80th
- 18.8–79.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 149.3
- Median
- 171.0
- 20th–80th
- 11.3–219.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 32.8
- Median
- 24.4
- 20th–80th
- 9.5–48.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated