South Florida Bulls at UTSA Roadrunners college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Thu, Oct 8
- 7:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- UTSA home
- Alamodome
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 18 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
South Florida visits UTSA in Week 6.
South Florida travels to UTSA at Alamodome. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 18 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Owen McCown (UTSA), David Amador II (UTSA), and Kenny Odom (USF).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
18 player distributions are available, led by Owen McCown (UTSA).
Venue context
UTSA is the designated home team at Alamodome.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:05+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:05+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
South Florida pass protection vs UTSA pass rush
South Florida's pass protection graded 70.9 in 2025 (28th of 136); UTSA's pass rush graded 64.5 (77th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for South Florida's pass protection. South Florida's pass protection returns only 22.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
UTSA pass protection vs South Florida pass rush
UTSA's pass protection graded 59.3 in 2025 (110th of 136); South Florida's pass rush graded 69.7 (18th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for South Florida's pass rush. South Florida's pass rush returns only 19.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
South Florida receiving corps vs UTSA coverage
South Florida's receiving corps graded 66.2 in 2025 (38th of 136); UTSA's coverage graded 59.4 (115th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for South Florida's receiving corps.
UTSA receiving corps vs South Florida coverage
UTSA's receiving corps graded 66.6 in 2025 (34th of 136); South Florida's coverage graded 65.1 (63rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for UTSA's receiving corps.
South Florida rush offense vs UTSA run defense
South Florida's rush offense graded 78.8 in 2025 (34th of 136); UTSA's run defense graded 64.0 (111th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for South Florida's rush offense. South Florida's rush offense returns only 19.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
UTSA rush offense vs South Florida run defense
UTSA's rush offense graded 77.9 in 2025 (42nd of 136); South Florida's run defense graded 65.0 (95th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UTSA's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
South Florida
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Odombalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 12.24.3–20.9 | — | — | 4.41.1–6.6 | 4917–76 |
| Michael Van Buren Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 5 | QB | 11.53.5–21.3 | 13754–236 | 26-2–48 | — | — |
| Mudia ReubenSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 13.44.3–20.4 | — | — | 3.81.0–5.2 | 5519–80 |
| Jaden AlexisVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.32.5–13.8 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.2 | 3310–48 |
| Wyatt SullivanSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 7.02.3–10.8 | — | — | — | 308–48 |
| Luke Kromenhoekbalanced · Tier 5 | QB | 7.90.9–13.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Bryson Rodgersbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.41.7–10.9 | — | — | — | 277–35 |
| JeyQuan SmithELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.31.7–10.4 | — | — | — | 287–33 |
UTSA
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen McCownVOLATILE · Tier 3 | QB | 17.47.0–26.0 | 239159–288 | — | — | — |
| David Amador IIELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 13.74.5–22.0 | — | — | 4.51.0–6.6 | 5920–82 |
| Will Henderson IIIHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 13.43.7–19.8 | — | 5215–80 | — | — |
| AJ WilsonHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 8.92.8–14.1 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.9 | 3613–55 |
| DJ Allen Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.22.2–13.1 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 319–44 |
| A'Marion Petersonbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.31.8–11.9 | — | 345–52 | — | — |
| Brandon TennisonVOLATILE · Tier 5 | QB | 6.90.9–12.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Jamel Hardy Jr.balanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.51.7–10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Mekhi AndersonHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 5.91.3–10.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Brandon Young Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 5.81.5–9.4 | — | — | — | — |
South Florida
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 49
- Pass yds
- 137
- Rush yds
- 26
- Receptions
- 3.8
- Rec yds
- 55
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rec yds
- 30
- Rec yds
- 27
- Rec yds
- 28
UTSA
- Pass yds
- 239
- Receptions
- 4.5
- Rec yds
- 59
- Rush yds
- 52
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 36
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rush yds
- 34
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen McCownQB · UTSA | Passing yards | 239.4 | 232.0 | 158.8–287.9 | Shop the line |
| David Amador IIWR · UTSA | Receiving yards | 58.5 | 42.5 | 19.8–82.4 | Shop the line |
| Kenny OdomWR · USF | Receiving yards | 48.6 | 42.8 | 16.5–75.6 | Shop the line |
| Michael Van Buren Jr.QB · USF | Passing yards | 137.3 | 171.0 | 54.2–236.0 | Shop the line |
| Mudia ReubenWR · USF | Receiving yards | 54.8 | 41.6 | 18.8–79.7 | Shop the line |
| Will Henderson IIIRB · UTSA | Rushing yards | 51.9 | 42.6 | 14.7–79.8 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 239.4
- Median
- 232.0
- 20th–80th
- 158.8–287.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 58.5
- Median
- 42.5
- 20th–80th
- 19.8–82.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 48.6
- Median
- 42.8
- 20th–80th
- 16.5–75.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 137.3
- Median
- 171.0
- 20th–80th
- 54.2–236.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 54.8
- Median
- 41.6
- 20th–80th
- 18.8–79.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 51.9
- Median
- 42.6
- 20th–80th
- 14.7–79.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated