Navy Midshipmen at UTSA Roadrunners college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 17
- Time TBA
- Venue
- UTSA home
- Alamodome
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 12 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Navy visits UTSA in Week 7.
Navy travels to UTSA at Alamodome. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 12 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Owen McCown (UTSA), Braxton Woodson (NAVY), and David Amador II (UTSA).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
12 player distributions are available, led by Owen McCown (UTSA).
Venue context
UTSA is the designated home team at Alamodome.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:09+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:09+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Navy pass protection vs UTSA pass rush
Navy's pass protection graded 59.6 in 2025 (108th of 136); UTSA's pass rush graded 64.5 (77th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for UTSA's pass rush.
UTSA pass protection vs Navy pass rush
UTSA's pass protection graded 59.3 in 2025 (110th of 136); Navy's pass rush graded 68.1 (37th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Navy's pass rush.
Navy receiving corps vs UTSA coverage
Navy's receiving corps graded 67.2 in 2025 (26th of 136); UTSA's coverage graded 59.4 (115th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Navy's receiving corps.
UTSA receiving corps vs Navy coverage
UTSA's receiving corps graded 66.6 in 2025 (34th of 136); Navy's coverage graded 57.6 (127th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UTSA's receiving corps.
Navy rush offense vs UTSA run defense
Navy's rush offense graded 78.0 in 2025 (41st of 136); UTSA's run defense graded 64.0 (111th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Navy's rush offense. Navy's rush offense returns only 14.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
UTSA rush offense vs Navy run defense
UTSA's rush offense graded 77.9 in 2025 (42nd of 136); Navy's run defense graded 64.6 (105th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UTSA's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Navy
2 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton WoodsonHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 15.84.2–24.4 | — | 5512–84 | — | — |
| Luke HutchisonVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.72.6–13.8 | — | — | — | 3710–56 |
UTSA
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen McCownbalanced · Tier 4 | QB | 17.47.0–26.0 | 239159–288 | — | — | — |
| David Amador IIELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 13.74.5–22.0 | — | — | 4.51.0–6.6 | 5920–82 |
| Will Henderson IIIHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | RB | 13.43.7–19.8 | — | 5215–80 | — | — |
| AJ Wilsonbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 8.92.8–14.1 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.9 | 3613–55 |
| DJ Allen Jr.ELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.22.2–13.1 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 319–44 |
| A'Marion Petersonbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.31.8–11.9 | — | 345–52 | — | — |
| Brandon TennisonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | QB | 6.90.9–12.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Jamel Hardy Jr.balanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.51.7–10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Mekhi AndersonHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 5.91.3–10.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Brandon Young Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 5.81.5–9.4 | — | — | — | — |
Navy
- Rush yds
- 55
- Rec yds
- 37
UTSA
- Pass yds
- 239
- Receptions
- 4.5
- Rec yds
- 59
- Rush yds
- 52
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 36
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rush yds
- 34
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen McCownQB · UTSA | Passing yards | 239.4 | 232.0 | 158.8–287.9 | Shop the line |
| Braxton WoodsonQB · NAVY | Rushing yards | 55.2 | 45.9 | 12.4–84.1 | Shop the line |
| David Amador IIWR · UTSA | Receiving yards | 58.5 | 42.5 | 19.8–82.4 | Shop the line |
| Will Henderson IIIRB · UTSA | Rushing yards | 51.9 | 42.6 | 14.7–79.8 | Shop the line |
| Luke HutchisonWR · NAVY | Receiving yards | 37.4 | 27.4 | 10.4–56.2 | Shop the line |
| AJ WilsonWR · UTSA | Receiving yards | 36.4 | 31.0 | 12.6–55.3 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 239.4
- Median
- 232.0
- 20th–80th
- 158.8–287.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 55.2
- Median
- 45.9
- 20th–80th
- 12.4–84.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 58.5
- Median
- 42.5
- 20th–80th
- 19.8–82.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 51.9
- Median
- 42.6
- 20th–80th
- 14.7–79.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 37.4
- Median
- 27.4
- 20th–80th
- 10.4–56.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 36.4
- Median
- 31.0
- 20th–80th
- 12.6–55.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated