South Florida Bulls at East Carolina Pirates college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Fri, Nov 6
- 7:30 PM EST
- Venue
- East Carolina home
- Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 17 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
South Florida visits East Carolina in Week 10.
South Florida travels to East Carolina at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 17 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Kenny Odom (USF), Michael Van Buren Jr. (USF), and Mudia Reuben (USF).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
17 player distributions are available, led by Kenny Odom (USF).
Venue context
East Carolina is the designated home team at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:20+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:20+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
South Florida pass protection vs East Carolina pass rush
South Florida's pass protection graded 70.9 in 2025 (28th of 136); East Carolina's pass rush graded 63.5 (91st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for South Florida's pass protection. South Florida's pass protection returns only 22.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
East Carolina pass protection vs South Florida pass rush
East Carolina's pass protection graded 61.6 in 2025 (98th of 136); South Florida's pass rush graded 69.7 (18th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for South Florida's pass rush. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
South Florida receiving corps vs East Carolina coverage
South Florida's receiving corps graded 66.2 in 2025 (38th of 136); East Carolina's coverage graded 61.1 (105th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for South Florida's receiving corps.
East Carolina receiving corps vs South Florida coverage
East Carolina's receiving corps graded 65.9 in 2025 (49th of 136); South Florida's coverage graded 65.1 (63rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
South Florida rush offense vs East Carolina run defense
South Florida's rush offense graded 78.8 in 2025 (34th of 136); East Carolina's run defense graded 66.4 (77th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for South Florida's rush offense. South Florida's rush offense returns only 19.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
East Carolina rush offense vs South Florida run defense
East Carolina's rush offense graded 75.4 in 2025 (67th of 136); South Florida's run defense graded 65.0 (95th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for East Carolina's rush offense. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
South Florida
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Odombalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 12.24.3–20.9 | — | — | 4.41.1–6.6 | 4917–76 |
| Michael Van Buren Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 6 | QB | 11.53.5–21.3 | 13754–236 | 26-2–48 | — | — |
| Mudia Reubenbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 13.44.3–20.4 | — | — | 3.81.0–5.2 | 5519–80 |
| Jaden AlexisVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.32.5–13.8 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.2 | 3310–48 |
| Wyatt SullivanSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 7.02.3–10.8 | — | — | — | 308–48 |
| Luke Kromenhoekbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 7.90.9–13.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Bryson Rodgersbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.41.7–10.9 | — | — | — | 277–35 |
| JeyQuan SmithHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.31.7–10.4 | — | — | — | 287–33 |
East Carolina
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael AllenVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 10.72.6–18.2 | — | 4110–65 | — | — |
| Brock SpaldingHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 9.02.7–14.4 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.9 | 3711–59 |
| Ashton GrayVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.71.8–12.8 | — | 336–52 | — | — |
| Mitch GriffisSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 8.01.3–13.5 | 12215–202 | — | — | — |
| Kanen HamlettVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.32.2–11.9 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 289–41 |
| TJ Engleman Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.71.4–11.2 | — | 348–58 | — | — |
| Landon SidesHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.82.1–10.8 | — | — | — | 318–45 |
| Ray Ray Joseph Jr.SAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 5.91.9–9.8 | — | — | — | 277–42 |
| Kyler Pearsonbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 5.61.1–9.9 | — | — | — | — |
South Florida
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 49
- Pass yds
- 137
- Rush yds
- 26
- Receptions
- 3.8
- Rec yds
- 55
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rec yds
- 30
- Rec yds
- 27
- Rec yds
- 28
East Carolina
- Rush yds
- 41
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 33
- Pass yds
- 122
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rush yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rec yds
- 27
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny OdomWR · USF | Receiving yards | 48.6 | 42.8 | 16.5–75.6 | Shop the line |
| Michael Van Buren Jr.QB · USF | Passing yards | 137.3 | 171.0 | 54.2–236.0 | Shop the line |
| Mudia ReubenWR · USF | Receiving yards | 54.8 | 41.6 | 18.8–79.7 | Shop the line |
| Michael AllenRB · ECU | Rushing yards | 41.1 | 38.1 | 9.5–64.5 | Shop the line |
| Brock SpaldingWR · ECU | Receiving yards | 37.3 | 31.0 | 11.3–59.1 | Shop the line |
| Jaden AlexisWR · USF | Receiving yards | 32.8 | 24.4 | 9.5–48.3 | Shop the line |
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 48.6
- Median
- 42.8
- 20th–80th
- 16.5–75.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 137.3
- Median
- 171.0
- 20th–80th
- 54.2–236.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 54.8
- Median
- 41.6
- 20th–80th
- 18.8–79.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 41.1
- Median
- 38.1
- 20th–80th
- 9.5–64.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 37.3
- Median
- 31.0
- 20th–80th
- 11.3–59.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 32.8
- Median
- 24.4
- 20th–80th
- 9.5–48.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated