UTSA Roadrunners at UAB Blazers college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 21
- Time TBA
- Venue
- UAB home
- Protective Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 16 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
UTSA visits UAB in Week 12.
UTSA travels to UAB at Protective Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 16 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Owen McCown (UTSA), David Amador II (UTSA), and Will Henderson III (UTSA).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
16 player distributions are available, led by Owen McCown (UTSA).
Venue context
UAB is the designated home team at Protective Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:27+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:27+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
UTSA pass protection vs UAB pass rush
UTSA's pass protection graded 59.3 in 2025 (110th of 136); UAB's pass rush graded 62.4 (103rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
UAB pass protection vs UTSA pass rush
UAB's pass protection graded 69.7 in 2025 (41st of 136); UTSA's pass rush graded 64.5 (77th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for UAB's pass protection.
UTSA receiving corps vs UAB coverage
UTSA's receiving corps graded 66.6 in 2025 (34th of 136); UAB's coverage graded 54.7 (136th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UTSA's receiving corps.
UAB receiving corps vs UTSA coverage
UAB's receiving corps graded 66.1 in 2025 (44th of 136); UTSA's coverage graded 59.4 (115th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UAB's receiving corps. UAB's receiving corps returns only 13.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
UTSA rush offense vs UAB run defense
UTSA's rush offense graded 77.9 in 2025 (42nd of 136); UAB's run defense graded 61.6 (127th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UTSA's rush offense.
UAB rush offense vs UTSA run defense
UAB's rush offense graded 75.7 in 2025 (63rd of 136); UTSA's run defense graded 64.0 (111th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UAB's rush offense. UAB's rush offense returns only 10.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
UTSA
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen McCownVOLATILE · Tier 4 | QB | 17.67.0–26.0 | 239159–288 | — | — | — |
| David Amador IIELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 13.94.5–22.0 | — | — | 4.51.0–6.6 | 5920–82 |
| Will Henderson IIIHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 13.53.7–19.8 | — | 5215–80 | — | — |
| AJ WilsonHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 8.92.8–14.1 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.9 | 3613–55 |
| DJ Allen Jr.ELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.22.2–13.1 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 319–44 |
| A'Marion Petersonbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.31.8–11.9 | — | 335–52 | — | — |
| Brandon TennisonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | QB | 6.90.9–12.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Jamel Hardy Jr.balanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.51.7–10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Mekhi AndersonHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 5.91.3–10.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Brandon Young Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 5.81.5–9.4 | — | — | — | — |
UAB
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Mimsbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 9.63.1–14.7 | — | — | 3.41.1–4.9 | 4412–60 |
| Bam McReynoldsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 9.32.7–14.0 | — | 3811–64 | 1.90.9–3.3 | — |
| Kaleb Brownbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 7.82.7–12.3 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.3 | 3911–57 |
| Ja'Vin SimpkinsELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.31.6–11.9 | — | 368–60 | — | — |
| Antonio FergusonELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 6.31.9–10.2 | — | — | — | 307–42 |
| Roderick Robinson IIbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.31.1–11.0 | — | — | — | — |
UTSA
- Pass yds
- 239
- Receptions
- 4.5
- Rec yds
- 59
- Rush yds
- 52
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 36
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rush yds
- 33
UAB
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 44
- Rush yds
- 38
- Receptions
- 1.9
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 39
- Rush yds
- 36
- Rec yds
- 30
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen McCownQB · UTSA | Passing yards | 239.4 | 232.0 | 158.8–287.9 | Shop the line |
| David Amador IIWR · UTSA | Receiving yards | 58.5 | 42.5 | 19.8–82.4 | Shop the line |
| Will Henderson IIIRB · UTSA | Rushing yards | 52.1 | 42.6 | 14.7–79.8 | Shop the line |
| Ty MimsWR · UAB | Receiving yards | 43.7 | 32.9 | 11.5–59.9 | Shop the line |
| Bam McReynoldsRB · UAB | Rushing yards | 38.0 | 32.1 | 10.5–64.3 | Shop the line |
| AJ WilsonWR · UTSA | Receiving yards | 36.4 | 31.0 | 12.6–55.3 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 239.4
- Median
- 232.0
- 20th–80th
- 158.8–287.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 58.5
- Median
- 42.5
- 20th–80th
- 19.8–82.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 52.1
- Median
- 42.6
- 20th–80th
- 14.7–79.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 43.7
- Median
- 32.9
- 20th–80th
- 11.5–59.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 38.0
- Median
- 32.1
- 20th–80th
- 10.5–64.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 36.4
- Median
- 31.0
- 20th–80th
- 12.6–55.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated