UTEP Miners at New Mexico Lobos college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 3
- Time TBA
- Venue
- New Mexico home
- University Stadium (NM)
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 12 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
UTEP visits New Mexico in Week 5.
UTEP travels to New Mexico at University Stadium (NM). No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 12 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Jack Layne (UNM), Kam Thomas (UTEP), and Troy Omeire (UNM).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
12 player distributions are available, led by Jack Layne (UNM).
Venue context
New Mexico is the designated home team at University Stadium (NM).
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:03+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:03+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
UTEP pass protection vs New Mexico pass rush
UTEP's pass protection graded 64.3 in 2025 (84th of 136); New Mexico's pass rush graded 70.9 (10th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for New Mexico's pass rush.
New Mexico pass protection vs UTEP pass rush
New Mexico's pass protection graded 58.7 in 2025 (113th of 136); UTEP's pass rush graded 60.4 (130th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for New Mexico's pass protection.
UTEP receiving corps vs New Mexico coverage
UTEP's receiving corps graded 59.7 in 2025 (128th of 136); New Mexico's coverage graded 65.2 (60th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for New Mexico's coverage.
New Mexico receiving corps vs UTEP coverage
New Mexico's receiving corps graded 64.3 in 2025 (74th of 136); UTEP's coverage graded 62.4 (90th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for New Mexico's receiving corps.
UTEP rush offense vs New Mexico run defense
UTEP's rush offense graded 71.5 in 2025 (106th of 136); New Mexico's run defense graded 71.6 (22nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for New Mexico's run defense.
New Mexico rush offense vs UTEP run defense
New Mexico's rush offense graded 71.4 in 2025 (108th of 136); UTEP's run defense graded 68.6 (47th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UTEP's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
UTEP
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kam ThomasELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 12.94.2–19.9 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.3 | 368–61 |
| Jaden Smithbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 9.83.2–16.3 | — | — | 3.91.0–6.2 | 4116–67 |
| EJ Colson Jr.ELITE · Tier 6 | QB | 9.31.5–17.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Tavorus JonesSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 6.31.3–10.8 | — | 264–44 | — | — |
| Jaylan BrownSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 6.11.9–10.2 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.8 | 277–37 |
| Judah EzinwaSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 5.71.8–9.4 | — | — | — | 267–38 |
New Mexico
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Laynebalanced · Tier 5 | QB | 16.15.5–26.2 | 16679–234 | — | — | — |
| Troy Omeirebalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 9.63.3–15.8 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.3 | 4814–66 |
| James LaubsteinSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 9.22.2–16.2 | — | 409–64 | — | — |
| Cade Keithbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 9.13.2–14.7 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.6 | 3912–59 |
| Simon MapaVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 6.51.7–10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Zhaiel Smithbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.31.6–10.0 | — | — | — | 267–31 |
UTEP
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 36
- Receptions
- 3.9
- Rec yds
- 41
- Rush yds
- 26
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 27
- Rec yds
- 26
New Mexico
- Pass yds
- 166
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 48
- Rush yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 39
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack LayneQB · UNM | Passing yards | 165.9 | 177.8 | 78.6–234.3 | Shop the line |
| Kam ThomasRB · UTEP | Receiving yards | 35.7 | 26.1 | 7.8–61.2 | Shop the line |
| Troy OmeireWR · UNM | Receiving yards | 47.8 | 36.1 | 14.0–65.8 | Shop the line |
| Jaden SmithWR · UTEP | Receiving yards | 40.9 | 37.6 | 15.8–67.3 | Shop the line |
| James LaubsteinQB · UNM | Rushing yards | 40.1 | 38.9 | 9.4–64.4 | Shop the line |
| Cade KeithTE · UNM | Receiving yards | 38.7 | 33.1 | 11.8–58.5 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 165.9
- Median
- 177.8
- 20th–80th
- 78.6–234.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 35.7
- Median
- 26.1
- 20th–80th
- 7.8–61.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 47.8
- Median
- 36.1
- 20th–80th
- 14.0–65.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 40.9
- Median
- 37.6
- 20th–80th
- 15.8–67.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 40.1
- Median
- 38.9
- 20th–80th
- 9.4–64.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 38.7
- Median
- 33.1
- 20th–80th
- 11.8–58.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated