Nevada Wolf Pack at UTEP Miners college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 10
- Time TBA
- Venue
- UTEP home
- Sun Bowl
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 12 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Nevada visits UTEP in Week 6.
Nevada travels to UTEP at Sun Bowl. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 12 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Kam Thomas (UTEP), Carter Jones (NEV), and Jaden Smith (UTEP).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
12 player distributions are available, led by Kam Thomas (UTEP).
Venue context
UTEP is the designated home team at Sun Bowl.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:05+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:05+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Nevada pass protection vs UTEP pass rush
Nevada's pass protection graded 63.7 in 2025 (87th of 136); UTEP's pass rush graded 60.4 (130th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Nevada's pass protection.
UTEP pass protection vs Nevada pass rush
UTEP's pass protection graded 64.3 in 2025 (84th of 136); Nevada's pass rush graded 70.3 (13th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Nevada's pass rush.
Nevada receiving corps vs UTEP coverage
Nevada's receiving corps graded 60.3 in 2025 (121st of 136); UTEP's coverage graded 62.4 (90th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for UTEP's coverage.
UTEP receiving corps vs Nevada coverage
UTEP's receiving corps graded 59.7 in 2025 (128th of 136); Nevada's coverage graded 66.0 (46th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Nevada's coverage. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Nevada rush offense vs UTEP run defense
Nevada's rush offense graded 69.5 in 2025 (122nd of 136); UTEP's run defense graded 68.6 (47th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UTEP's run defense.
UTEP rush offense vs Nevada run defense
UTEP's rush offense graded 71.5 in 2025 (106th of 136); Nevada's run defense graded 68.6 (46th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Nevada's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Nevada
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter JonesVOLATILE · Tier 5 | QB | 9.91.9–18.8 | 14431–232 | — | — | — |
| Luke Duncanbalanced · Tier 5 | QB | 9.82.1–16.6 | 14934–235 | — | — | — |
| Gary Givens IIISAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 7.22.0–10.8 | — | — | — | 3410–48 |
| Herschel TurnerHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 6.51.5–10.9 | — | 327–54 | — | — |
| Dominic Kelleybalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.51.0–10.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Jayden O'RourkeSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 5.81.8–9.7 | — | — | — | 267–40 |
UTEP
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kam ThomasELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 12.94.2–19.9 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.3 | 368–61 |
| Jaden Smithbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 9.83.2–16.3 | — | — | 3.91.0–6.2 | 4116–67 |
| EJ Colson Jr.HIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | QB | 9.31.5–17.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Tavorus Jonesbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.31.3–10.8 | — | 264–44 | — | — |
| Jaylan BrownSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.9–10.2 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.8 | 277–37 |
| Judah EzinwaSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 5.71.8–9.4 | — | — | — | 267–38 |
Nevada
- Pass yds
- 144
- Pass yds
- 149
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rush yds
- 32
- Rec yds
- 26
UTEP
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 36
- Receptions
- 3.9
- Rec yds
- 41
- Rush yds
- 26
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 27
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kam ThomasRB · UTEP | Receiving yards | 35.7 | 26.1 | 7.8–61.2 | Shop the line |
| Carter JonesQB · NEV | Passing yards | 143.9 | 167.9 | 30.8–232.1 | Shop the line |
| Jaden SmithWR · UTEP | Receiving yards | 40.9 | 37.6 | 15.8–67.3 | Shop the line |
| Luke DuncanQB · NEV | Passing yards | 149.1 | 167.0 | 34.0–235.1 | Shop the line |
| Gary Givens IIIWR · NEV | Receiving yards | 34.2 | 23.7 | 9.6–48.3 | Shop the line |
| Herschel TurnerRB · NEV | Rushing yards | 32.4 | 22.6 | 7.2–53.5 | Shop the line |
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 35.7
- Median
- 26.1
- 20th–80th
- 7.8–61.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 143.9
- Median
- 167.9
- 20th–80th
- 30.8–232.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 40.9
- Median
- 37.6
- 20th–80th
- 15.8–67.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 149.1
- Median
- 167.0
- 20th–80th
- 34.0–235.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 34.2
- Median
- 23.7
- 20th–80th
- 9.6–48.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 32.4
- Median
- 22.6
- 20th–80th
- 7.2–53.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated