San José State Spartans at Nevada Wolf Pack college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 24
- 5:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Nevada home
- Mackay Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 12 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
San José State visits Nevada in Week 8.
San José State travels to Nevada at Mackay Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 12 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Luke Weaver (SJSU), Carter Jones (NEV), and Luke Duncan (NEV).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
12 player distributions are available, led by Luke Weaver (SJSU).
Venue context
Nevada is the designated home team at Mackay Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:14+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:14+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
San José State pass protection vs Nevada pass rush
San José State's pass protection graded 55.2 in 2025 (126th of 136); Nevada's pass rush graded 70.3 (13th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Nevada's pass rush.
Nevada pass protection vs San José State pass rush
Nevada's pass protection graded 63.7 in 2025 (87th of 136); San José State's pass rush graded 63.9 (86th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
San José State receiving corps vs Nevada coverage
San José State's receiving corps graded 62.8 in 2025 (97th of 136); Nevada's coverage graded 66.0 (46th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Nevada's coverage. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Nevada receiving corps vs San José State coverage
Nevada's receiving corps graded 60.3 in 2025 (121st of 136); San José State's coverage graded 55.1 (135th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
San José State rush offense vs Nevada run defense
San José State's rush offense graded 75.3 in 2025 (70th of 136); Nevada's run defense graded 68.6 (46th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Nevada's run defense.
Nevada rush offense vs San José State run defense
Nevada's rush offense graded 69.5 in 2025 (122nd of 136); San José State's run defense graded 71.6 (23rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for San José State's run defense. San José State's run defense returns only 17.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
San José State
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke WeaverHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 11.33.4–21.0 | 17752–252 | — | — | — |
| Tama AmisoneHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 9.21.0–18.1 | — | 24-2–47 | — | — |
| Viliami Teubalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.91.6–11.2 | — | 344–55 | — | — |
| Jabari BatesHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 6.91.7–11.3 | — | 345–54 | — | — |
| Cooper Hochbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.31.8–10.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Malachi RileyVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.01.6–9.7 | — | — | — | 267–32 |
Nevada
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Jonesbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 9.91.9–18.8 | 14431–232 | — | — | — |
| Luke Duncanbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 9.82.1–16.6 | 14934–235 | — | — | — |
| Gary Givens IIISAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 7.22.0–10.8 | — | — | — | 3410–48 |
| Herschel TurnerELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.51.5–10.9 | — | 337–54 | — | — |
| Dominic Kelleybalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.51.0–10.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Jayden O'RourkeSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 5.81.8–9.7 | — | — | — | 267–40 |
San José State
- Pass yds
- 177
- Rush yds
- 24
- Rush yds
- 34
- Rush yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 26
Nevada
- Pass yds
- 144
- Pass yds
- 149
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rush yds
- 33
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke WeaverQB · SJSU | Passing yards | 176.9 | 193.8 | 51.8–251.6 | Shop the line |
| Carter JonesQB · NEV | Passing yards | 143.9 | 167.9 | 30.8–232.1 | Shop the line |
| Luke DuncanQB · NEV | Passing yards | 149.1 | 167.0 | 34.0–235.1 | Shop the line |
| Tama AmisoneWR · SJSU | Rushing yards | 23.7 | 18.8 | -1.7–46.5 | Shop the line |
| Gary Givens IIIWR · NEV | Receiving yards | 34.2 | 23.7 | 9.6–48.3 | Shop the line |
| Viliami TeuRB · SJSU | Rushing yards | 33.6 | 27.5 | 4.4–54.6 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 176.9
- Median
- 193.8
- 20th–80th
- 51.8–251.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 143.9
- Median
- 167.9
- 20th–80th
- 30.8–232.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 149.1
- Median
- 167.0
- 20th–80th
- 34.0–235.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 23.7
- Median
- 18.8
- 20th–80th
- -1.7–46.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 34.2
- Median
- 23.7
- 20th–80th
- 9.6–48.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 33.6
- Median
- 27.5
- 20th–80th
- 4.4–54.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated