Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo Bulls college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 24
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Buffalo home
- Broadview Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 9 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Bowling Green visits Buffalo in Week 8.
Bowling Green travels to Buffalo at Broadview Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 9 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Austyn Dendy (BGSU), Hunter Najm (BGSU), and Jasaiah Gathings (BUF).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
9 player distributions are available, led by Austyn Dendy (BGSU).
Venue context
Buffalo is the designated home team at Broadview Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:14+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:14+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Bowling Green pass protection vs Buffalo pass rush
Bowling Green's pass protection graded 64.6 in 2025 (82nd of 136); Buffalo's pass rush graded 69.7 (20th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Buffalo's pass rush. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Buffalo pass protection vs Bowling Green pass rush
Buffalo's pass protection graded 69.9 in 2025 (38th of 136); Bowling Green's pass rush graded 65.8 (63rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Buffalo's pass protection. Buffalo's pass protection returns only 6.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Bowling Green receiving corps vs Buffalo coverage
Bowling Green's receiving corps graded 62.5 in 2025 (102nd of 136); Buffalo's coverage graded 65.8 (49th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Buffalo's coverage.
Buffalo receiving corps vs Bowling Green coverage
Buffalo's receiving corps graded 64.8 in 2025 (64th of 136); Bowling Green's coverage graded 62.8 (82nd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Buffalo's receiving corps.
Bowling Green rush offense vs Buffalo run defense
Bowling Green's rush offense graded 70.1 in 2025 (119th of 136); Buffalo's run defense graded 69.8 (38th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Buffalo's run defense.
Buffalo rush offense vs Bowling Green run defense
Buffalo's rush offense graded 69.3 in 2025 (126th of 136); Bowling Green's run defense graded 66.8 (67th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Bowling Green's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Bowling Green
5 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austyn DendySAFE FLOOR · Tier 3 | RB | 16.07.1–23.5 | — | 7529–108 | — | 140–24 |
| Hunter NajmHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 9.62.1–17.9 | 14911–220 | — | — | — |
| Brennan Ridleybalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.21.9–10.6 | — | — | — | 299–46 |
| Leo KempWeekly model | FB | 5.71.3–9.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Blane CleaverHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 5.81.5–9.9 | — | — | — | — |
Buffalo
4 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasaiah Gathingsbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 10.63.8–15.9 | — | — | 3.51.0–5.4 | 4312–62 |
| Terrance Shelton Jr.balanced · Tier 6 | RB | 9.12.7–14.0 | — | 3812–64 | — | — |
| Chance MorrowELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.12.4–13.4 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.1 | 3010–48 |
| Patrick Clacks IIIVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.82.1–10.6 | — | — | — | — |
Bowling Green
- Rush yds
- 75
- Rec yds
- 14
- Pass yds
- 149
- Rec yds
- 29
Buffalo
- Receptions
- 3.5
- Rec yds
- 43
- Rush yds
- 38
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 30
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austyn DendyRB · BGSU | Rushing yards | 74.9 | 62.8 | 29.4–107.5 | Shop the line |
| Hunter NajmQB · BGSU | Passing yards | 149.3 | 171.0 | 11.3–219.8 | Shop the line |
| Jasaiah GathingsWR · BUF | Receiving yards | 43.3 | 32.1 | 12.1–61.6 | Shop the line |
| Terrance Shelton Jr.RB · BUF | Rushing yards | 38.2 | 31.8 | 11.8–63.7 | Shop the line |
| Chance MorrowWR · BUF | Receiving yards | 30.4 | 27.0 | 10.0–48.3 | Shop the line |
| Brennan RidleyWR · BGSU | Receiving yards | 28.6 | 22.7 | 8.7–45.5 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 74.9
- Median
- 62.8
- 20th–80th
- 29.4–107.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 149.3
- Median
- 171.0
- 20th–80th
- 11.3–219.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 43.3
- Median
- 32.1
- 20th–80th
- 12.1–61.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 38.2
- Median
- 31.8
- 20th–80th
- 11.8–63.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 30.4
- Median
- 27.0
- 20th–80th
- 10.0–48.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 28.6
- Median
- 22.7
- 20th–80th
- 8.7–45.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated