Central Michigan Chippewas at Ball State Cardinals college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 28
- 12:00 PM EST
- Venue
- Ball State home
- Scheumann Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 15 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Central Michigan visits Ball State in Week 13.
Central Michigan travels to Ball State at Scheumann Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 15 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Angel Flores (CMU), Langston Lewis (CMU), and Brock Townsend (CMU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
15 player distributions are available, led by Angel Flores (CMU).
Venue context
Ball State is the designated home team at Scheumann Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:31+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:31+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Central Michigan pass protection vs Ball State pass rush
Central Michigan's pass protection graded 46.1 in 2025 (134th of 136); Ball State's pass rush graded 71.6 (6th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Ball State's pass rush. Ball State's pass rush returns only 22.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Ball State pass protection vs Central Michigan pass rush
Ball State's pass protection graded 58.1 in 2025 (119th of 136); Central Michigan's pass rush graded 67.5 (49th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Central Michigan's pass rush.
Central Michigan receiving corps vs Ball State coverage
Central Michigan's receiving corps graded 67.0 in 2025 (28th of 136); Ball State's coverage graded 57.6 (128th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Central Michigan's receiving corps.
Ball State receiving corps vs Central Michigan coverage
Ball State's receiving corps graded 60.0 in 2025 (125th of 136); Central Michigan's coverage graded 66.9 (40th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Central Michigan's coverage. Central Michigan's coverage returns only 19.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Central Michigan rush offense vs Ball State run defense
Central Michigan's rush offense graded 73.1 in 2025 (92nd of 136); Ball State's run defense graded 62.8 (118th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Central Michigan's rush offense.
Ball State rush offense vs Central Michigan run defense
Ball State's rush offense graded 67.1 in 2025 (131st of 136); Central Michigan's run defense graded 65.0 (94th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Central Michigan's run defense. Central Michigan's run defense returns only 24.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Central Michigan
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angel FloresHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | QB | 14.64.1–24.1 | — | 509–81 | — | — |
| Langston Lewisbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 12.94.1–20.5 | — | — | 3.81.1–5.7 | 5516–82 |
| Brock Townsendbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 11.53.3–19.1 | — | 388–63 | — | — |
| Tommy McIntoshbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 10.43.3–15.5 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.3 | 4314–65 |
| Jadyn GlasserHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 8.71.2–17.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Vaughn BlueVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.72.1–14.3 | — | — | — | 140–21 |
| Marcus BeamonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 7.21.0–11.7 | — | 311–53 | — | — |
| Nasir WilliamsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.32.0–10.2 | — | — | — | 278–44 |
| Collin Paynebalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.81.8–10.4 | — | — | — | 339–48 |
Ball State
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ HortonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.72.1–12.4 | — | — | 1.70.0–3.1 | — |
| Donovan HamiltonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 8.12.4–12.7 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.7 | 3911–56 |
| Jabari Smith Jr.SAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 7.32.1–11.9 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.7 | 309–44 |
| Jalen BondsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 7.22.0–12.1 | — | 356–56 | — | 11-0–12 |
| Corey Thompson Jr.balanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.51.9–10.1 | — | — | — | 298–44 |
| Isaiah ThackerHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.01.1–10.4 | — | — | — | — |
Central Michigan
- Rush yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 3.8
- Rec yds
- 55
- Rush yds
- 38
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 43
- Rec yds
- 14
- Rush yds
- 31
- Rec yds
- 27
- Rec yds
- 33
Ball State
- Receptions
- 1.7
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 30
- Rush yds
- 35
- Rec yds
- 11
- Rec yds
- 29
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angel FloresQB · CMU | Rushing yards | 50.2 | 41.1 | 8.5–81.0 | Shop the line |
| Langston LewisWR · CMU | Receiving yards | 54.8 | 39.9 | 15.9–82.2 | Shop the line |
| Brock TownsendRB · CMU | Rushing yards | 38.0 | 30.9 | 8.0–62.6 | Shop the line |
| Tommy McIntoshWR · CMU | Receiving yards | 43.2 | 35.2 | 14.1–65.2 | Shop the line |
| TJ HortonRB · BALL | Receptions | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.0–3.1 | Shop the line |
| Donovan HamiltonWR · BALL | Receiving yards | 38.6 | 28.9 | 11.4–55.7 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 50.2
- Median
- 41.1
- 20th–80th
- 8.5–81.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 54.8
- Median
- 39.9
- 20th–80th
- 15.9–82.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 38.0
- Median
- 30.9
- 20th–80th
- 8.0–62.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 43.2
- Median
- 35.2
- 20th–80th
- 14.1–65.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receptions
- Projection
- 1.7
- Median
- 1.0
- 20th–80th
- 0.0–3.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 38.6
- Median
- 28.9
- 20th–80th
- 11.4–55.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated