New Mexico State Aggies at Missouri State Bears college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14
- 3:00 PM EST
- Venue
- Missouri State home
- Robert W. Plaster Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 15 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
New Mexico State visits Missouri State in Week 11.
New Mexico State travels to Missouri State at Robert W. Plaster Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 15 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Skyler Locklear (MOST), Adam Damante (NMSU), and TK King (NMSU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
15 player distributions are available, led by Skyler Locklear (MOST).
Venue context
Missouri State is the designated home team at Robert W. Plaster Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:23+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:23+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
New Mexico State pass protection vs Missouri State pass rush
New Mexico State's pass protection graded 56.9 in 2025 (123rd of 136); Missouri State's pass rush graded 65.8 (64th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Missouri State's pass rush. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Missouri State pass protection vs New Mexico State pass rush
Missouri State's pass protection graded 69.3 in 2025 (45th of 136); New Mexico State's pass rush graded 69.0 (25th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for New Mexico State's pass rush.
New Mexico State receiving corps vs Missouri State coverage
New Mexico State's receiving corps graded 62.9 in 2025 (93rd of 136); Missouri State's coverage graded 63.6 (74th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Missouri State's coverage.
Missouri State receiving corps vs New Mexico State coverage
Missouri State's receiving corps graded 66.2 in 2025 (40th of 136); New Mexico State's coverage graded 65.1 (64th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Missouri State's receiving corps.
New Mexico State rush offense vs Missouri State run defense
New Mexico State's rush offense graded 64.7 in 2025 (135th of 136); Missouri State's run defense graded 62.0 (125th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Missouri State rush offense vs New Mexico State run defense
Missouri State's rush offense graded 76.5 in 2025 (57th of 136); New Mexico State's run defense graded 65.2 (91st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Missouri State's rush offense. Missouri State's rush offense returns only 21.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
New Mexico State
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam DamanteVOLATILE · Tier 4 | QB | 13.54.7–21.7 | 189107–277 | — | — | — |
| TK KingELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 15.05.1–20.8 | — | — | 4.61.0–6.4 | 5621–83 |
| Dijon Stanleybalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 9.03.3–16.0 | — | 3410–56 | 2.00.0–3.4 | 160–27 |
| TJ PrideSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 8.72.7–13.6 | — | — | — | 4012–58 |
| Brodie Malone-BradfordVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.42.6–13.6 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.8 | 3211–48 |
| Isaiah Rudisonbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.61.8–12.2 | — | 315–53 | 1.70.0–3.0 | — |
| Jerry LydiattSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 7.32.3–11.3 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.1 | — |
| Myles Libmanbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.6–10.1 | — | — | — | 267–33 |
Missouri State
7 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skyler LocklearELITE · Tier 4 | QB | 19.19.0–28.7 | 203134–268 | 397–65 | — | — |
| Jmariyae RobinsonHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 13.54.3–21.6 | — | — | 4.41.0–6.5 | 5818–76 |
| Jeron Askrenbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 9.23.1–14.6 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.2 | 3412–51 |
| Ramone Green Jr.balanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.52.1–12.2 | — | 295–52 | — | 150–25 |
| Isaiah MyersELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 7.72.3–12.9 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.2 | 3611–53 |
| Makai Copebalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 7.12.2–11.1 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.2 | 3610–53 |
| Mekhi MillerHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.91.8–11.1 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 318–44 |
New Mexico State
- Pass yds
- 189
- Receptions
- 4.6
- Rec yds
- 56
- Rush yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.0
- Rec yds
- 16
- Rec yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 32
- Rush yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 1.7
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 26
Missouri State
- Pass yds
- 203
- Rush yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 58
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rush yds
- 29
- Rec yds
- 15
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 36
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 36
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skyler LocklearQB · MOST | Passing yards | 202.8 | 209.7 | 134.4–268.0 | Shop the line |
| Adam DamanteQB · NMSU | Passing yards | 189.4 | 203.0 | 107.0–276.8 | Shop the line |
| TK KingWR · NMSU | Receiving yards | 56.3 | 44.4 | 20.9–82.9 | Shop the line |
| Jmariyae RobinsonWR · MOST | Receiving yards | 58.3 | 40.6 | 17.8–76.1 | Shop the line |
| Dijon StanleyRB · NMSU | Rushing yards | 34.3 | 28.7 | 9.7–55.6 | Shop the line |
| Jeron AskrenTE · MOST | Receiving yards | 34.4 | 31.8 | 11.6–51.2 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 202.8
- Median
- 209.7
- 20th–80th
- 134.4–268.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 189.4
- Median
- 203.0
- 20th–80th
- 107.0–276.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 56.3
- Median
- 44.4
- 20th–80th
- 20.9–82.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 58.3
- Median
- 40.6
- 20th–80th
- 17.8–76.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 34.3
- Median
- 28.7
- 20th–80th
- 9.7–55.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 34.4
- Median
- 31.8
- 20th–80th
- 11.6–51.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated