Liberty Flames at Missouri State Bears college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 28
- 2:00 PM EST
- Venue
- Missouri State home
- Robert W. Plaster Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 16 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Liberty visits Missouri State in Week 13.
Liberty travels to Missouri State at Robert W. Plaster Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 16 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Skyler Locklear (MOST), Ethan Vasko (LIB), and Makai Jackson (LIB).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
16 player distributions are available, led by Skyler Locklear (MOST).
Venue context
Missouri State is the designated home team at Robert W. Plaster Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:31+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:31+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Liberty pass protection vs Missouri State pass rush
Liberty's pass protection graded 63.5 in 2025 (88th of 136); Missouri State's pass rush graded 65.8 (64th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Missouri State's pass rush. Missouri State's pass rush returns only 17.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Missouri State pass protection vs Liberty pass rush
Missouri State's pass protection graded 69.3 in 2025 (45th of 136); Liberty's pass rush graded 63.2 (95th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Missouri State's pass protection. Missouri State's pass protection returns only 16.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Liberty receiving corps vs Missouri State coverage
Liberty's receiving corps graded 65.8 in 2025 (52nd of 136); Missouri State's coverage graded 63.6 (74th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Liberty's receiving corps. Liberty's receiving corps returns only 21.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Missouri State receiving corps vs Liberty coverage
Missouri State's receiving corps graded 66.2 in 2025 (40th of 136); Liberty's coverage graded 66.9 (39th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Liberty rush offense vs Missouri State run defense
Liberty's rush offense graded 76.6 in 2025 (56th of 136); Missouri State's run defense graded 62.0 (125th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Liberty's rush offense. Liberty's rush offense returns only 21.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Missouri State rush offense vs Liberty run defense
Missouri State's rush offense graded 76.5 in 2025 (57th of 136); Liberty's run defense graded 64.0 (112th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Missouri State's rush offense. Missouri State's rush offense returns only 21.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Liberty
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan VaskoVOLATILE · Tier 3 | QB | 12.75.1–21.6 | 16082–248 | — | — | — |
| Makai JacksonELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 14.84.9–21.2 | — | — | 4.11.0–5.7 | 6420–92 |
| Jaylen Hendersonbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 10.82.2–19.6 | — | 323–61 | — | — |
| Jamari PersonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 7.62.6–11.1 | — | — | 3.21.0–4.5 | 389–56 |
| Justin MarshallHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 7.81.7–11.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Kam DavisELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.51.4–11.6 | — | — | — | 140–18 |
| Caleb RyanSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 6.21.8–9.7 | — | — | — | 307–47 |
| Kanye UdohHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 7.11.4–11.4 | — | 304–49 | — | — |
| Jaylon ColemanSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 6.61.7–11.0 | — | — | 2.00.0–3.7 | 221–31 |
Missouri State
7 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skyler LocklearELITE · Tier 3 | QB | 19.19.0–28.7 | 203134–268 | 397–65 | — | — |
| Jmariyae RobinsonHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 13.54.3–21.6 | — | — | 4.41.0–6.5 | 5818–76 |
| Jeron Askrenbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 9.23.1–14.6 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.2 | 3412–51 |
| Ramone Green Jr.balanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.52.1–12.2 | — | 295–52 | — | 150–25 |
| Isaiah MyersELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 7.72.3–12.9 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.2 | 3611–53 |
| Makai Copebalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 7.12.2–11.1 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.2 | 3610–53 |
| Mekhi MillerHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.91.8–11.1 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 318–44 |
Liberty
- Pass yds
- 160
- Receptions
- 4.1
- Rec yds
- 64
- Rush yds
- 32
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 38
- Rec yds
- 14
- Rec yds
- 30
- Rush yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.0
- Rec yds
- 22
Missouri State
- Pass yds
- 203
- Rush yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 58
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rush yds
- 29
- Rec yds
- 15
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 36
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 36
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skyler LocklearQB · MOST | Passing yards | 202.8 | 209.7 | 134.4–268.0 | Shop the line |
| Ethan VaskoQB · LIB | Passing yards | 160.1 | 195.2 | 82.2–247.5 | Shop the line |
| Makai JacksonWR · LIB | Receiving yards | 63.7 | 48.9 | 20.4–92.1 | Shop the line |
| Jmariyae RobinsonWR · MOST | Receiving yards | 58.3 | 40.6 | 17.8–76.1 | Shop the line |
| Jaylen HendersonQB · LIB | Rushing yards | 31.9 | 22.5 | 2.7–60.6 | Shop the line |
| Jeron AskrenTE · MOST | Receiving yards | 34.4 | 31.8 | 11.6–51.2 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 202.8
- Median
- 209.7
- 20th–80th
- 134.4–268.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 160.1
- Median
- 195.2
- 20th–80th
- 82.2–247.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 63.7
- Median
- 48.9
- 20th–80th
- 20.4–92.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 58.3
- Median
- 40.6
- 20th–80th
- 17.8–76.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 31.9
- Median
- 22.5
- 20th–80th
- 2.7–60.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 34.4
- Median
- 31.8
- 20th–80th
- 11.6–51.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated