Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7
- 3:30 PM EST
- Venue
- Middle Tennessee home
- Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 16 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Western Kentucky visits Middle Tennessee in Week 10.
Western Kentucky travels to Middle Tennessee at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 16 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Roman Gagliano (MTSU), Rodney Tisdale Jr. (WKU), and Ajay Allen (WKU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
16 player distributions are available, led by Roman Gagliano (MTSU).
Venue context
Middle Tennessee is the designated home team at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:20+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:20+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Western Kentucky pass protection vs Middle Tennessee pass rush
Western Kentucky's pass protection graded 70.6 in 2025 (30th of 136); Middle Tennessee's pass rush graded 66.2 (58th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Western Kentucky's pass protection. Western Kentucky's pass protection returns only 14.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Middle Tennessee pass protection vs Western Kentucky pass rush
Middle Tennessee's pass protection graded 53.9 in 2025 (127th of 136); Western Kentucky's pass rush graded 64.0 (84th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Western Kentucky's pass rush. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Western Kentucky receiving corps vs Middle Tennessee coverage
Western Kentucky's receiving corps graded 64.3 in 2025 (72nd of 136); Middle Tennessee's coverage graded 61.1 (104th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Western Kentucky's receiving corps.
Middle Tennessee receiving corps vs Western Kentucky coverage
Middle Tennessee's receiving corps graded 60.6 in 2025 (117th of 136); Western Kentucky's coverage graded 65.9 (48th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Western Kentucky's coverage. Western Kentucky's coverage returns only 24.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Western Kentucky rush offense vs Middle Tennessee run defense
Western Kentucky's rush offense graded 74.0 in 2025 (85th of 136); Middle Tennessee's run defense graded 71.3 (26th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Middle Tennessee's run defense.
Middle Tennessee rush offense vs Western Kentucky run defense
Middle Tennessee's rush offense graded 78.9 in 2025 (32nd of 136); Western Kentucky's run defense graded 65.8 (82nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Middle Tennessee's rush offense. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Western Kentucky
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Tisdale Jr.SAFE FLOOR · Tier 4 | QB | 16.96.5–26.6 | 214124–265 | — | — | — |
| Ajay AllenVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 14.65.2–21.9 | — | 6519–94 | — | — |
| K.D. HutchinsonVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 11.64.1–20.0 | — | — | 4.21.1–6.0 | 5316–74 |
| Moussa BarrySAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 8.72.7–13.7 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.6 | 3411–55 |
| Qua'Vez Humphreysbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 7.32.4–11.2 | — | — | 2.71.0–3.9 | 3510–53 |
| Jyziah Rockwellbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.61.8–10.9 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.6 | 308–46 |
| Zion TaylorSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.21.9–10.4 | — | — | 2.31.0–3.6 | 297–35 |
| Quincy BurroughsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.8–10.2 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.8 | 277–34 |
Middle Tennessee
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Gaglianobalanced · Tier 4 | QB | 18.46.0–27.5 | 204121–274 | 30-2–47 | — | — |
| Markus AllenHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 9.23.3–16.0 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.4 | 5014–69 |
| AJ Jonesbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 10.53.3–15.8 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.8 | 3710–54 |
| Landon CollinsVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 9.43.2–15.3 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.2 | 4314–62 |
| Cam'ron LacySAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 8.52.8–13.6 | — | — | — | 4413–64 |
| DJ TaylorHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 7.82.0–14.3 | — | 298–56 | — | — |
| Evan PoticherELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 6.01.7–10.0 | — | — | 2.31.0–3.5 | — |
| Antonio MartinVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 5.61.1–10.7 | — | 294–48 | — | — |
Western Kentucky
- Pass yds
- 214
- Rush yds
- 65
- Receptions
- 4.2
- Rec yds
- 53
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.3
- Rec yds
- 29
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 27
Middle Tennessee
- Pass yds
- 204
- Rush yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 43
- Rec yds
- 44
- Rush yds
- 29
- Receptions
- 2.3
- Rush yds
- 29
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman GaglianoQB · MTSU | Passing yards | 203.6 | 208.8 | 121.3–274.2 | Shop the line |
| Rodney Tisdale Jr.QB · WKU | Passing yards | 214.0 | 217.9 | 124.4–264.9 | Shop the line |
| Ajay AllenRB · WKU | Rushing yards | 65.0 | 57.0 | 18.9–93.8 | Shop the line |
| K.D. HutchinsonWR · WKU | Receiving yards | 52.5 | 38.0 | 15.8–73.6 | Shop the line |
| Markus AllenWR · MTSU | Receiving yards | 50.0 | 36.5 | 14.1–69.4 | Shop the line |
| AJ JonesWR · MTSU | Receiving yards | 36.9 | 28.1 | 10.2–54.0 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 203.6
- Median
- 208.8
- 20th–80th
- 121.3–274.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 214.0
- Median
- 217.9
- 20th–80th
- 124.4–264.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 65.0
- Median
- 57.0
- 20th–80th
- 18.9–93.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 52.5
- Median
- 38.0
- 20th–80th
- 15.8–73.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 50.0
- Median
- 36.5
- 20th–80th
- 14.1–69.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 36.9
- Median
- 28.1
- 20th–80th
- 10.2–54.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated