Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Sam Houston Bearkats college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 21
- 2:00 PM EST
- Venue
- Sam Houston home
- Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 17 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Middle Tennessee visits Sam Houston in Week 12.
Middle Tennessee travels to Sam Houston at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 17 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Roman Gagliano (MTSU), Grady O'Neill (SHSU), and Chris Reed (SHSU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
17 player distributions are available, led by Roman Gagliano (MTSU).
Venue context
Sam Houston is the designated home team at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:27+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:27+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Middle Tennessee pass protection vs Sam Houston pass rush
Middle Tennessee's pass protection graded 53.9 in 2025 (127th of 136); Sam Houston's pass rush graded 61.0 (123rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Sam Houston pass protection vs Middle Tennessee pass rush
Sam Houston's pass protection graded 63.0 in 2025 (91st of 136); Middle Tennessee's pass rush graded 66.2 (58th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Middle Tennessee's pass rush.
Middle Tennessee receiving corps vs Sam Houston coverage
Middle Tennessee's receiving corps graded 60.6 in 2025 (117th of 136); Sam Houston's coverage graded 58.4 (122nd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Sam Houston receiving corps vs Middle Tennessee coverage
Sam Houston's receiving corps graded 59.5 in 2025 (130th of 136); Middle Tennessee's coverage graded 61.1 (104th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Middle Tennessee's coverage.
Middle Tennessee rush offense vs Sam Houston run defense
Middle Tennessee's rush offense graded 78.9 in 2025 (32nd of 136); Sam Houston's run defense graded 65.0 (92nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Middle Tennessee's rush offense. Middle Tennessee's rush offense returns only 22.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Sam Houston rush offense vs Middle Tennessee run defense
Sam Houston's rush offense graded 73.1 in 2025 (93rd of 136); Middle Tennessee's run defense graded 71.3 (26th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Middle Tennessee's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Middle Tennessee
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Gaglianobalanced · Tier 4 | QB | 18.66.0–27.5 | 204121–274 | 30-2–47 | — | — |
| Markus AllenHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 9.63.3–16.0 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.4 | 5014–69 |
| AJ JonesVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 10.53.3–15.8 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.8 | 3710–54 |
| Landon CollinsVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 9.43.2–15.3 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.2 | 4314–62 |
| Cam'ron LacySAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 8.52.8–13.6 | — | — | — | 4413–64 |
| DJ TaylorHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 7.72.0–14.3 | — | 298–56 | — | — |
| Evan PoticherELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 6.01.7–10.0 | — | — | 2.31.0–3.5 | — |
| Antonio MartinVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 5.61.1–10.7 | — | 284–48 | — | — |
Sam Houston
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grady O'NeillVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 11.34.3–17.5 | — | — | 4.41.0–6.4 | 5418–76 |
| Chris ReedVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 11.33.8–19.2 | — | — | 3.71.0–5.5 | 5315–77 |
| Landan Brownbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 10.43.4–17.3 | — | 4213–65 | 2.00.9–3.8 | 240–39 |
| Landyn Lockebalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 9.92.7–19.5 | 14952–251 | — | — | — |
| Alton McCaskillELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.22.0–11.9 | — | 368–61 | — | — |
| Tim Burns Jr.HIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.61.8–11.1 | — | — | — | 298–43 |
| Max Whisnerbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 5.91.7–9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Aviyon Smith-Mackbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.61.9–9.9 | — | — | 2.41.0–4.1 | 268–39 |
| Darrick Bledsoe IIIbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.7–9.9 | — | — | — | 267–31 |
Middle Tennessee
- Pass yds
- 204
- Rush yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 43
- Rec yds
- 44
- Rush yds
- 29
- Receptions
- 2.3
- Rush yds
- 28
Sam Houston
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 54
- Receptions
- 3.7
- Rec yds
- 53
- Rush yds
- 42
- Receptions
- 2.0
- Rec yds
- 24
- Pass yds
- 149
- Rush yds
- 36
- Rec yds
- 29
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 26
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman GaglianoQB · MTSU | Passing yards | 203.6 | 208.8 | 121.3–274.2 | Shop the line |
| Grady O'NeillWR · SHSU | Receiving yards | 53.5 | 41.6 | 18.2–76.2 | Shop the line |
| Chris ReedWR · SHSU | Receiving yards | 53.1 | 38.4 | 15.2–77.2 | Shop the line |
| Landan BrownRB · SHSU | Rushing yards | 41.6 | 37.7 | 12.7–65.0 | Shop the line |
| Landyn LockeQB · SHSU | Passing yards | 148.8 | 168.0 | 52.2–251.1 | Shop the line |
| Markus AllenWR · MTSU | Receiving yards | 50.0 | 36.5 | 14.1–69.4 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 203.6
- Median
- 208.8
- 20th–80th
- 121.3–274.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 53.5
- Median
- 41.6
- 20th–80th
- 18.2–76.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 53.1
- Median
- 38.4
- 20th–80th
- 15.2–77.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 41.6
- Median
- 37.7
- 20th–80th
- 12.7–65.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 148.8
- Median
- 168.0
- 20th–80th
- 52.2–251.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 50.0
- Median
- 36.5
- 20th–80th
- 14.1–69.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated