Oregon State Beavers at Houston Cougars college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 5
- 12:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Houston home
- TDECU Stadium
- Captured market
- HOU -20.5
- DraftKings · Aug 11, 10:09 PM EDT
- Player model
- 16 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Houston carries the early number into TDECU Stadium.
Oregon State travels to Houston at TDECU Stadium. The captured market lists Houston as a 20.5-point favorite. That number came from DraftKings and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 16 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Conner Weigman (HOU), Amare Thomas (HOU), and Trent Walker (HOU).
Market frame
Houston is the captured favorite by 20.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
16 player distributions are available, led by Conner Weigman (HOU).
Venue context
Houston is the designated home team at TDECU Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00DraftKings snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:09:50ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Oregon State pass protection vs Houston pass rush
Oregon State's pass protection graded 61.4 in 2025 (100th of 136); Houston's pass rush graded 61.8 (114th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Houston pass protection vs Oregon State pass rush
Houston's pass protection graded 55.9 in 2025 (125th of 136); Oregon State's pass rush graded 63.9 (87th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Oregon State's pass rush.
Oregon State receiving corps vs Houston coverage
Oregon State's receiving corps graded 60.2 in 2025 (123rd of 136); Houston's coverage graded 69.6 (23rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Houston's coverage.
Houston receiving corps vs Oregon State coverage
Houston's receiving corps graded 68.4 in 2025 (19th of 136); Oregon State's coverage graded 63.2 (79th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Houston's receiving corps.
Oregon State rush offense vs Houston run defense
Oregon State's rush offense graded 72.6 in 2025 (98th of 136); Houston's run defense graded 71.0 (28th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Houston's run defense.
Houston rush offense vs Oregon State run defense
Houston's rush offense graded 75.8 in 2025 (62nd of 136); Oregon State's run defense graded 63.4 (114th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Houston's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Oregon State
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeCorion TempleSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | TE | 6.62.2–10.0 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.0 | 309–50 |
| Eddie FreauffSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 5.51.8–8.5 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.8 | 267–35 |
| Karson Boschmabalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 5.21.5–7.7 | — | — | — | 226–32 |
| Gabe MilbournSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | TE | 5.01.7–8.1 | — | — | — | 247–40 |
| Jake Reichlebalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 5.00.9–9.0 | — | — | — | — |
| Malachi Durantbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 4.71.3–7.2 | — | — | — | — |
Houston
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conner WeigmanELITE · Tier 1 | QB | 27.112.8–33.0 | 210143–269 | 7125–100 | — | — |
| Amare ThomasELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 15.45.1–23.3 | — | — | 4.71.0–6.5 | 6127–91 |
| Trent Walkerbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 13.14.3–19.9 | — | — | 4.21.0–6.4 | 5518–83 |
| Patrick OvermyerELITE · Tier 3 | TE | 10.44.0–17.2 | — | — | 3.11.1–4.8 | 4614–69 |
| Re'Shaun Sanford IIVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.82.8–15.0 | — | 4517–73 | 1.60.0–3.1 | 150–31 |
| DJ Butlerbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 9.12.6–13.2 | — | 4114–69 | — | — |
| Harvey Broussard IIIbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 8.92.9–13.5 | — | — | — | 3812–63 |
| Makhi HughesSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 9.22.5–12.7 | — | 4710–64 | — | — |
| Luke McGarySAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | TE | 7.92.4–12.3 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.8 | 319–49 |
| Koby YoungHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 7.11.9–11.5 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.8 | 298–44 |
Oregon State
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 26
- Rec yds
- 22
- Rec yds
- 24
Houston
- Pass yds
- 210
- Rush yds
- 71
- Receptions
- 4.7
- Rec yds
- 61
- Receptions
- 4.2
- Rec yds
- 55
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 46
- Rush yds
- 45
- Receptions
- 1.6
- Rec yds
- 15
- Rush yds
- 41
- Rec yds
- 38
- Rush yds
- 47
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 29
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conner WeigmanQB · HOU | Passing yards | 210.1 | 209.5 | 142.7–268.8 | Shop the line |
| Amare ThomasWR · HOU | Receiving yards | 60.5 | 50.0 | 27.3–91.2 | Shop the line |
| Trent WalkerWR · HOU | Receiving yards | 54.6 | 51.9 | 17.6–82.6 | Shop the line |
| Patrick OvermyerTE · HOU | Receiving yards | 45.5 | 35.7 | 13.6–69.1 | Shop the line |
| Re'Shaun Sanford IIRB · HOU | Rushing yards | 45.4 | 42.7 | 16.8–72.9 | Shop the line |
| DJ ButlerRB · HOU | Rushing yards | 41.0 | 38.6 | 13.9–68.5 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 210.1
- Median
- 209.5
- 20th–80th
- 142.7–268.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 60.5
- Median
- 50.0
- 20th–80th
- 27.3–91.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 54.6
- Median
- 51.9
- 20th–80th
- 17.6–82.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 45.5
- Median
- 35.7
- 20th–80th
- 13.6–69.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 45.4
- Median
- 42.7
- 20th–80th
- 16.8–72.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 41.0
- Median
- 38.6
- 20th–80th
- 13.9–68.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated