SMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoles college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Mon, Sep 7
- 7:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- Florida State home
- Doak Campbell Stadium
- Captured market
- SMU -1.5
- FanDuel · Aug 11, 10:10 PM EDT
- Player model
- 21 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
SMU carries the early number into Doak Campbell Stadium.
SMU travels to Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium. The captured market lists SMU as a 1.5-point favorite. That number came from FanDuel and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 21 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Kevin Jennings (SMU), Kendrick Raphael (SMU), and Ashton Daniels (FSU).
Market frame
SMU is the captured favorite by 1.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
21 player distributions are available, led by Kevin Jennings (SMU).
Venue context
Florida State is the designated home team at Doak Campbell Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00FanDuel snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:10:03ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
SMU pass protection vs Florida State pass rush
SMU's pass protection graded 76.1 in 2025 (6th of 136); Florida State's pass rush graded 62.3 (107th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for SMU's pass protection.
Florida State pass protection vs SMU pass rush
Florida State's pass protection graded 73.1 in 2025 (17th of 136); SMU's pass rush graded 68.0 (39th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Florida State's pass protection. Florida State's pass protection returns only 5.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
SMU receiving corps vs Florida State coverage
SMU's receiving corps graded 65.6 in 2025 (57th of 136); Florida State's coverage graded 61.8 (98th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for SMU's receiving corps.
Florida State receiving corps vs SMU coverage
Florida State's receiving corps graded 66.0 in 2025 (46th of 136); SMU's coverage graded 65.6 (53rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
SMU rush offense vs Florida State run defense
SMU's rush offense graded 74.1 in 2025 (83rd of 136); Florida State's run defense graded 68.4 (52nd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Florida State's run defense.
Florida State rush offense vs SMU run defense
Florida State's rush offense graded 76.0 in 2025 (61st of 136); SMU's run defense graded 73.6 (12th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for SMU's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
SMU
11 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin JenningsVOLATILE · Tier 4 | QB | 19.56.8–27.4 | 229148–302 | — | — | — |
| Kendrick RaphaelELITE · Tier 5 | RB | 17.77.4–24.8 | — | 8025–113 | 3.20.9–5.1 | 160–33 |
| Yamir Knightbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 12.54.3–19.5 | — | — | 4.21.0–6.0 | 5717–86 |
| Yannick Smithbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 11.33.9–17.2 | — | — | 3.61.0–5.4 | 4916–75 |
| Mabrey MettauerHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 9.91.2–18.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Randy PittmanVOLATILE · Tier 5 | TE | 9.52.7–14.0 | — | — | — | — |
| Derrick McFallbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 9.02.8–14.3 | — | 276–47 | — | — |
| Theo Melin OhrstromVOLATILE · Tier 5 | TE | 7.62.3–11.2 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.0 | 3410–52 |
| Jalen CooperSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 7.62.1–11.7 | — | — | — | 3311–52 |
| Jalen Halebalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 7.02.0–11.0 | — | — | — | 3111–52 |
| Dramekco GreenVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.11.5–10.7 | — | — | — | — |
Florida State
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton DanielsHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 16.55.4–23.5 | 209141–264 | 549–71 | — | — |
| Duce Robinsonbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 13.74.4–20.6 | — | — | 4.31.0–6.2 | 5720–82 |
| Quintrevion WisnerSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 10.64.1–18.5 | — | 6016–87 | — | — |
| Gemari SandsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 9.23.4–15.1 | — | 328–57 | 2.70.0–4.6 | 170–29 |
| Desirrio RilesELITE · Tier 5 | TE | 9.43.3–14.7 | — | — | 3.01.0–5.0 | 4013–63 |
| Micahi Danzybalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 8.72.6–14.3 | — | — | 2.81.1–4.3 | 3710–57 |
| Jayvan BoggsELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 7.02.3–11.1 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.1 | 3310–52 |
| Samuel Singleton Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.71.5–11.9 | — | 3911–63 | — | — |
| Landen ThomasSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | TE | 6.72.0–10.8 | — | — | — | 289–44 |
| Zay Parksbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 5.21.1–9.8 | — | 243–49 | — | — |
SMU
- Pass yds
- 229
- Rush yds
- 80
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 16
- Receptions
- 4.2
- Rec yds
- 57
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 49
- Rush yds
- 27
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rec yds
- 31
Florida State
- Pass yds
- 209
- Rush yds
- 54
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 57
- Rush yds
- 60
- Rush yds
- 32
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 17
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rush yds
- 39
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rush yds
- 24
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin JenningsQB · SMU | Passing yards | 228.9 | 222.0 | 147.8–302.0 | Shop the line |
| Kendrick RaphaelRB · SMU | Rushing yards | 80.4 | 68.5 | 24.7–112.8 | Shop the line |
| Ashton DanielsQB · FSU | Passing yards | 209.4 | 205.7 | 140.5–264.1 | Shop the line |
| Yamir KnightWR · SMU | Receiving yards | 57.1 | 43.9 | 16.9–85.5 | Shop the line |
| Yannick SmithWR · SMU | Receiving yards | 49.3 | 39.8 | 15.5–74.9 | Shop the line |
| Duce RobinsonWR · FSU | Receiving yards | 56.6 | 43.8 | 19.6–82.3 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 228.9
- Median
- 222.0
- 20th–80th
- 147.8–302.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 80.4
- Median
- 68.5
- 20th–80th
- 24.7–112.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 209.4
- Median
- 205.7
- 20th–80th
- 140.5–264.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 57.1
- Median
- 43.9
- 20th–80th
- 16.9–85.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 49.3
- Median
- 39.8
- 20th–80th
- 15.5–74.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 56.6
- Median
- 43.8
- 20th–80th
- 19.6–82.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated