Wisconsin Badgers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sun, Sep 6
- 7:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- Neutral site
- Lambeau Field
- Captured market
- ND -20.5
- FanDuel · Aug 11, 10:10 PM EDT
- Player model
- 18 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Notre Dame and Wisconsin open on a neutral stage.
Notre Dame and Wisconsin meet on a neutral stage at Lambeau Field. The captured market lists Notre Dame as a 20.5-point favorite. That number came from FanDuel and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 18 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to CJ Carr (ND), Colton Joseph (WIS), and Aneyas Williams (ND).
Market frame
Notre Dame is the captured favorite by 20.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
18 player distributions are available, led by CJ Carr (ND).
Neutral-site context
Lambeau Field removes the standard home-field assumption.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00FanDuel snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:10:02ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Wisconsin pass protection vs Notre Dame pass rush
Wisconsin's pass protection graded 62.3 in 2025 (96th of 136); Notre Dame's pass rush graded 69.4 (22nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Notre Dame's pass rush.
Notre Dame pass protection vs Wisconsin pass rush
Notre Dame's pass protection graded 67.4 in 2025 (57th of 136); Wisconsin's pass rush graded 69.0 (27th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Wisconsin's pass rush. Wisconsin's pass rush returns only 24.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Wisconsin receiving corps vs Notre Dame coverage
Wisconsin's receiving corps graded 64.3 in 2025 (71st of 136); Notre Dame's coverage graded 70.8 (14th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Notre Dame's coverage.
Notre Dame receiving corps vs Wisconsin coverage
Notre Dame's receiving corps graded 72.2 in 2025 (5th of 136); Wisconsin's coverage graded 60.1 (112th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Notre Dame's receiving corps.
Wisconsin rush offense vs Notre Dame run defense
Wisconsin's rush offense graded 68.3 in 2025 (128th of 136); Notre Dame's run defense graded 72.4 (16th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Notre Dame's run defense.
Notre Dame rush offense vs Wisconsin run defense
Notre Dame's rush offense graded 84.3 in 2025 (3rd of 136); Wisconsin's run defense graded 68.3 (54th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Notre Dame's rush offense. Notre Dame's rush offense returns only 17.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Wisconsin
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colton JosephELITE · Tier 6 | QB | 15.55.7–20.4 | 141101–184 | 5012–86 | — | — |
| Carter Smithbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 7.21.0–12.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Abu Sama IIISAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 6.82.1–10.5 | — | 3611–69 | — | — |
| Shamar Rigbybalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 7.02.2–10.9 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.5 | 3611–54 |
| Darrion DupreeELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.12.5–11.6 | — | 339–61 | — | — |
| Jacob HarrisSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | TE | 5.92.1–8.9 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 328–48 |
| Zion KearneySAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 4.91.9–8.2 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.6 | 278–44 |
| Malachi Colemanbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 4.61.6–7.8 | — | — | — | 236–35 |
| Bryan Jackson IIbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 4.60.8–8.6 | — | — | — | — |
Notre Dame
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ CarrVOLATILE · Tier 4 | QB | 18.37.1–26.7 | 215107–269 | — | — | — |
| Aneyas Williamsbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 10.63.5–16.1 | — | 4517–67 | — | — |
| Jordan FaisonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 11.23.4–16.6 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.1 | 4915–71 |
| Cooper Flanaganbalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 7.92.0–12.1 | — | — | — | 279–37 |
| Kedren Youngbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.52.0–11.9 | — | 369–65 | — | — |
| Jaden GreathouseSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 7.62.1–10.8 | — | — | — | 349–53 |
| Ty Washingtonbalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 6.92.0–10.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Quincy Porterbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.01.7–9.6 | — | — | — | 247–37 |
| Mylan GrahamELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 6.31.8–10.2 | — | — | — | 258–39 |
Wisconsin
- Pass yds
- 141
- Rush yds
- 50
- Rush yds
- 36
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 36
- Rush yds
- 33
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 32
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 27
- Rec yds
- 23
Notre Dame
- Pass yds
- 215
- Rush yds
- 45
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 49
- Rec yds
- 27
- Rush yds
- 36
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 24
- Rec yds
- 25
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ CarrQB · ND | Passing yards | 214.9 | 220.9 | 106.8–269.0 | Shop the line |
| Colton JosephQB · WIS | Passing yards | 140.5 | 133.4 | 100.9–184.4 | Shop the line |
| Aneyas WilliamsRB · ND | Rushing yards | 44.5 | 40.6 | 16.8–67.2 | Shop the line |
| Jordan FaisonWR · ND | Receiving yards | 48.7 | 36.6 | 14.9–70.9 | Shop the line |
| Cooper FlanaganTE · ND | Receiving yards | 26.9 | 19.4 | 8.5–37.2 | Shop the line |
| Kedren YoungRB · ND | Rushing yards | 36.4 | 33.3 | 9.3–65.0 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 214.9
- Median
- 220.9
- 20th–80th
- 106.8–269.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 140.5
- Median
- 133.4
- 20th–80th
- 100.9–184.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 44.5
- Median
- 40.6
- 20th–80th
- 16.8–67.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 48.7
- Median
- 36.6
- 20th–80th
- 14.9–70.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 26.9
- Median
- 19.4
- 20th–80th
- 8.5–37.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 36.4
- Median
- 33.3
- 20th–80th
- 9.3–65.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated