California Golden Bears at Virginia Cavaliers college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Virginia home
- Scott Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 24 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
California visits Virginia in Week 11.
California travels to Virginia at Scott Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 24 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (CAL), Jekail Middlebrook (UVA), and Jacquon Gibson (UVA).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
24 player distributions are available, led by Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (CAL).
Venue context
Virginia is the designated home team at Scott Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:23+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:23+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
California pass protection vs Virginia pass rush
California's pass protection graded 61.5 in 2025 (99th of 136); Virginia's pass rush graded 68.2 (36th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Virginia's pass rush.
Virginia pass protection vs California pass rush
Virginia's pass protection graded 67.5 in 2025 (56th of 136); California's pass rush graded 64.4 (80th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Virginia's pass protection.
California receiving corps vs Virginia coverage
California's receiving corps graded 64.8 in 2025 (63rd of 136); Virginia's coverage graded 69.6 (21st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Virginia's coverage.
Virginia receiving corps vs California coverage
Virginia's receiving corps graded 66.1 in 2025 (45th of 136); California's coverage graded 72.6 (6th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for California's coverage.
California rush offense vs Virginia run defense
California's rush offense graded 72.8 in 2025 (96th of 136); Virginia's run defense graded 70.2 (35th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Virginia's run defense.
Virginia rush offense vs California run defense
Virginia's rush offense graded 74.8 in 2025 (74th of 136); California's run defense graded 61.4 (129th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Virginia's rush offense. Virginia's rush offense returns only 21.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
California
12 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleELITE · Tier 4 | QB | 18.36.1–25.8 | 247153–286 | — | — | — |
| Jackson BrousseauSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 12.43.8–21.2 | 16783–251 | — | — | — |
| Adam MohammedELITE · Tier 5 | RB | 13.24.3–21.1 | — | 6719–92 | — | 150–18 |
| Chase HendricksHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 14.04.4–21.8 | — | — | 4.61.0–6.6 | 5819–87 |
| Ian StrongELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 10.54.0–16.7 | — | — | 3.61.0–5.6 | 5016–71 |
| Mason Minibalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 9.22.8–15.1 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.9 | 4011–59 |
| Ashten EmoryELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 10.53.9–16.0 | — | 5416–90 | — | — |
| Dorian ThomasVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 8.92.8–13.4 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.4 | 4112–60 |
| QuaRon AdamsHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 7.31.9–12.2 | — | — | 2.61.1–4.0 | 288–41 |
| Mark HamperVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.92.1–10.8 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.0 | 319–47 |
| Cole Bosciabalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.31.8–11.3 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.7 | 278–38 |
| Rico WalkerSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 6.61.9–10.8 | — | — | — | 288–40 |
Virginia
12 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jekail Middlebrookbalanced · Tier 5 | RB | 15.56.1–24.3 | — | 6719–94 | 2.90.9–4.6 | 310–53 |
| Jacquon Gibsonbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 12.85.0–21.2 | — | — | 4.91.1–7.8 | 5718–84 |
| Beau PribulaELITE · Tier 6 | QB | 13.03.6–24.0 | 11918–210 | 335–56 | — | — |
| Da'Shawn MartinELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 10.33.9–17.2 | — | — | 3.71.0–5.7 | 5416–75 |
| Rico Flores Jr.SAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 8.73.0–13.1 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.2 | 4311–60 |
| Peyton Lewisbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 8.62.3–14.0 | — | 356–55 | — | — |
| Tyson DavisELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 7.92.6–12.1 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.5 | 4110–58 |
| Solomon BeebeSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 7.42.1–12.2 | — | 357–53 | 1.60.0–3.1 | — |
| Xavier Brownbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.21.5–12.2 | — | 347–55 | — | — |
| Dakota TwittyELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.22.1–11.3 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.0 | 329–46 |
| Kameron CourtneyHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.72.1–10.6 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.0 | 318–44 |
| John RogersSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 5.71.7–9.4 | — | — | — | 267–34 |
California
- Pass yds
- 247
- Pass yds
- 167
- Rush yds
- 67
- Rec yds
- 15
- Receptions
- 4.6
- Rec yds
- 58
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 40
- Rush yds
- 54
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 41
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 28
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 27
- Rec yds
- 28
Virginia
- Rush yds
- 67
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 4.9
- Rec yds
- 57
- Pass yds
- 119
- Rush yds
- 33
- Receptions
- 3.7
- Rec yds
- 54
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 43
- Rush yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 41
- Rush yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 1.6
- Rush yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 32
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleQB · CAL | Passing yards | 246.7 | 234.7 | 153.2–285.8 | Shop the line |
| Jekail MiddlebrookRB · UVA | Rushing yards | 67.0 | 55.4 | 18.8–94.4 | Shop the line |
| Jacquon GibsonWR · UVA | Receiving yards | 56.6 | 44.5 | 17.8–84.1 | Shop the line |
| Jackson BrousseauQB · CAL | Passing yards | 167.3 | 198.9 | 82.5–250.6 | Shop the line |
| Adam MohammedRB · CAL | Rushing yards | 66.9 | 55.0 | 18.9–91.6 | Shop the line |
| Chase HendricksWR · CAL | Receiving yards | 57.8 | 45.4 | 19.4–87.3 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 246.7
- Median
- 234.7
- 20th–80th
- 153.2–285.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 67.0
- Median
- 55.4
- 20th–80th
- 18.8–94.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 56.6
- Median
- 44.5
- 20th–80th
- 17.8–84.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 167.3
- Median
- 198.9
- 20th–80th
- 82.5–250.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 66.9
- Median
- 55.0
- 20th–80th
- 18.9–91.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 57.8
- Median
- 45.4
- 20th–80th
- 19.4–87.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated