Boise State Broncos at Oregon Ducks college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 5
- 3:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- Oregon home
- Autzen Stadium
- Captured market
- ORE -24.5
- DraftKings · Aug 11, 10:09 PM EDT
- Player model
- 21 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Oregon carries the early number into Autzen Stadium.
Boise State travels to Oregon at Autzen Stadium. The captured market lists Oregon as a 24.5-point favorite. That number came from DraftKings and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 21 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Dante Moore (ORE), Iverson Hooks (ORE), and Dylan Raiola (ORE).
Market frame
Oregon is the captured favorite by 24.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
21 player distributions are available, led by Dante Moore (ORE).
Venue context
Oregon is the designated home team at Autzen Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00DraftKings snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:09:50ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Boise State pass protection vs Oregon pass rush
Boise State's pass protection graded 58.4 in 2025 (116th of 136); Oregon's pass rush graded 70.9 (9th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Oregon's pass rush.
Oregon pass protection vs Boise State pass rush
Oregon's pass protection graded 79.1 in 2025 (2nd of 136); Boise State's pass rush graded 65.1 (73rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Oregon's pass protection.
Boise State receiving corps vs Oregon coverage
Boise State's receiving corps graded 61.0 in 2025 (113th of 136); Oregon's coverage graded 72.0 (7th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Oregon's coverage.
Oregon receiving corps vs Boise State coverage
Oregon's receiving corps graded 68.1 in 2025 (20th of 136); Boise State's coverage graded 69.6 (22nd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Boise State rush offense vs Oregon run defense
Boise State's rush offense graded 80.6 in 2025 (18th of 136); Oregon's run defense graded 70.6 (30th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Oregon rush offense vs Boise State run defense
Oregon's rush offense graded 83.0 in 2025 (9th of 136); Boise State's run defense graded 62.7 (119th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Oregon's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Boise State
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddux Madsenbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 11.03.4–19.1 | 16294–215 | — | — | — |
| Dylan RileySAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 10.73.7–16.7 | — | 4413–80 | — | — |
| Sire Gainesbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 8.22.9–13.5 | — | 3712–71 | — | — |
| Max CutforthVOLATILE · Tier 6 | QB | 8.01.6–16.2 | 15264–217 | — | — | — |
| Ben FordHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 7.42.3–10.7 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.5 | 3010–51 |
| Cameron Batesbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 7.01.9–10.6 | — | — | 2.81.1–4.3 | 359–50 |
| Quinton Brownbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.21.6–9.5 | — | — | — | 246–32 |
| Matt WagnerSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | TE | 5.21.4–8.1 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.8 | 257–41 |
| Juelz GoffSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 5.01.1–8.1 | — | 274–51 | — | — |
| Harry Stewart IIISAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 4.91.2–7.3 | — | 274–48 | — | — |
Oregon
11 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante MooreVOLATILE · Tier 4 | QB | 17.17.4–25.4 | 205143–286 | — | — | — |
| Iverson HooksELITE · Tier 4 | WR | 16.14.8–22.3 | — | — | 4.41.0–6.8 | 5820–89 |
| Dylan RaiolaELITE · Tier 6 | QB | 13.53.2–22.0 | 17066–241 | — | — | — |
| Dakorien MooreVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 11.33.6–18.0 | — | — | 3.61.1–5.3 | 5015–73 |
| Jordon Davisonbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 11.23.4–18.9 | — | 4315–70 | — | — |
| Evan StewartELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 12.33.8–17.7 | — | — | 4.01.0–6.0 | 4714–66 |
| Jeremiah McClellanVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 9.93.0–14.6 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.4 | 4113–62 |
| Jamari Johnsonbalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 9.33.0–13.8 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.6 | 4013–62 |
| Simeon Pricebalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 9.22.1–14.0 | — | 348–58 | — | — |
| Dierre Hill Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.41.9–12.7 | — | 378–60 | 1.50.0–2.9 | 130–25 |
| Brock ThomasELITE · Tier 6 | QB | 7.61.0–12.8 | — | — | — | — |
Boise State
- Pass yds
- 162
- Rush yds
- 44
- Rush yds
- 37
- Pass yds
- 152
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 35
- Rec yds
- 24
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 25
- Rush yds
- 27
- Rush yds
- 27
Oregon
- Pass yds
- 205
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 58
- Pass yds
- 170
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 50
- Rush yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 4.0
- Rec yds
- 47
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 41
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 40
- Rush yds
- 34
- Rush yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 1.5
- Rec yds
- 13
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante MooreQB · ORE | Passing yards | 205.0 | 238.0 | 143.2–286.1 | Shop the line |
| Iverson HooksWR · ORE | Receiving yards | 57.8 | 45.7 | 20.1–89.1 | Shop the line |
| Dylan RaiolaQB · ORE | Passing yards | 170.3 | 191.6 | 66.1–240.7 | Shop the line |
| Dakorien MooreWR · ORE | Receiving yards | 49.8 | 36.8 | 14.9–73.3 | Shop the line |
| Jordon DavisonRB · ORE | Rushing yards | 43.4 | 43.6 | 15.4–69.8 | Shop the line |
| Evan StewartWR · ORE | Receiving yards | 47.1 | 38.5 | 14.0–65.5 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 205.0
- Median
- 238.0
- 20th–80th
- 143.2–286.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 57.8
- Median
- 45.7
- 20th–80th
- 20.1–89.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 170.3
- Median
- 191.6
- 20th–80th
- 66.1–240.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 49.8
- Median
- 36.8
- 20th–80th
- 14.9–73.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 43.4
- Median
- 43.6
- 20th–80th
- 15.4–69.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 47.1
- Median
- 38.5
- 20th–80th
- 14.0–65.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated