Marshall Thundering Herd at Penn State Nittany Lions college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 5
- 3:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- Penn State home
- Beaver Stadium
- Captured market
- PSU -24.5
- DraftKings · Aug 11, 10:09 PM EDT
- Player model
- 19 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Penn State carries the early number into Beaver Stadium.
Marshall travels to Penn State at Beaver Stadium. The captured market lists Penn State as a 24.5-point favorite. That number came from DraftKings and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 19 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Carson Hansen (PSU), Rocco Becht (PSU), and Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (MRSH).
Market frame
Penn State is the captured favorite by 24.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
19 player distributions are available, led by Carson Hansen (PSU).
Venue context
Penn State is the designated home team at Beaver Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00DraftKings snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:09:50ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Marshall pass protection vs Penn State pass rush
Marshall's pass protection graded 67.7 in 2025 (55th of 136); Penn State's pass rush graded 67.4 (53rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Penn State pass protection vs Marshall pass rush
Penn State's pass protection graded 74.5 in 2025 (10th of 136); Marshall's pass rush graded 63.9 (85th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Penn State's pass protection. Penn State's pass protection returns only 20.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Marshall receiving corps vs Penn State coverage
Marshall's receiving corps graded 65.7 in 2025 (55th of 136); Penn State's coverage graded 65.2 (59th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Penn State receiving corps vs Marshall coverage
Penn State's receiving corps graded 62.8 in 2025 (95th of 136); Marshall's coverage graded 64.6 (67th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Marshall's coverage.
Marshall rush offense vs Penn State run defense
Marshall's rush offense graded 71.4 in 2025 (110th of 136); Penn State's run defense graded 68.5 (51st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Penn State's run defense. Penn State's run defense returns only 22.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Penn State rush offense vs Marshall run defense
Penn State's rush offense graded 83.7 in 2025 (6th of 136); Marshall's run defense graded 70.1 (37th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Penn State's rush offense. Penn State's rush offense returns only 2.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Marshall
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Del Rio-WilsonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 12.33.3–20.4 | 177107–217 | 324–53 | — | — |
| Adrian NortonELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 12.44.3–18.0 | — | — | 4.21.0–6.2 | 5316–80 |
| Zion TurnerSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 9.71.5–14.6 | 13626–192 | 19-2–39 | — | — |
| De'Andre Tamarezbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 8.12.9–12.2 | — | — | 3.71.0–5.6 | 4314–66 |
| Khalil WilkinsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 8.00.9–12.4 | — | 304–53 | — | — |
| Toby PayneELITE · Tier 5 | TE | 7.42.4–10.7 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.1 | 3710–55 |
| Chris CulliverHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 6.61.4–9.4 | — | — | — | 258–38 |
| Jo'Shon BarbieELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 5.61.2–8.8 | — | 284–50 | — | — |
| Josiah McLaurinbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 4.71.2–7.5 | — | — | — | — |
Penn State
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson HansenELITE · Tier 5 | RB | 18.67.7–25.5 | — | 8127–116 | — | — |
| Rocco Bechtbalanced · Tier 5 | QB | 15.45.3–26.8 | 16883–254 | — | — | — |
| Chase SowellSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 11.73.9–17.7 | — | — | 3.61.0–5.5 | 5116–76 |
| Benjamin BrahmerELITE · Tier 5 | TE | 11.23.1–16.2 | — | — | — | 4313–68 |
| Brett EskildsenVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 9.92.9–15.0 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.4 | 4112–66 |
| James PeoplesHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 9.52.3–14.8 | — | 369–59 | — | — |
| Andrew RappleyeaSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | TE | 7.92.4–13.0 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.7 | 3110–53 |
| Gabe BurkleELITE · Tier 5 | TE | 8.82.3–13.0 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.4 | 3710–59 |
| Cam WallaceHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 6.61.6–11.1 | — | 367–60 | — | — |
| Koby HowardELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 6.51.9–10.5 | — | — | — | 277–42 |
Marshall
- Pass yds
- 177
- Rush yds
- 32
- Receptions
- 4.2
- Rec yds
- 53
- Pass yds
- 136
- Rush yds
- 19
- Receptions
- 3.7
- Rec yds
- 43
- Rush yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rec yds
- 25
- Rush yds
- 28
Penn State
- Rush yds
- 81
- Pass yds
- 168
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 51
- Rec yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 41
- Rush yds
- 36
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 36
- Rec yds
- 27
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson HansenRB · PSU | Rushing yards | 81.3 | 69.0 | 26.6–115.9 | Shop the line |
| Rocco BechtQB · PSU | Passing yards | 167.9 | 199.9 | 83.3–254.4 | Shop the line |
| Carlos Del Rio-WilsonQB · MRSH | Passing yards | 177.3 | 160.6 | 106.7–217.1 | Shop the line |
| Adrian NortonWR · MRSH | Receiving yards | 53.1 | 40.5 | 15.6–80.4 | Shop the line |
| Chase SowellWR · PSU | Receiving yards | 51.0 | 43.5 | 16.0–75.7 | Shop the line |
| Benjamin BrahmerTE · PSU | Receiving yards | 42.5 | 33.5 | 13.3–68.1 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 81.3
- Median
- 69.0
- 20th–80th
- 26.6–115.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 167.9
- Median
- 199.9
- 20th–80th
- 83.3–254.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 177.3
- Median
- 160.6
- 20th–80th
- 106.7–217.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 53.1
- Median
- 40.5
- 20th–80th
- 15.6–80.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 51.0
- Median
- 43.5
- 20th–80th
- 16.0–75.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 42.5
- Median
- 33.5
- 20th–80th
- 13.3–68.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated