Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany Lions college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 26
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Penn State home
- Beaver Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 19 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Wisconsin visits Penn State in Week 4.
Wisconsin travels to Penn State at Beaver Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 19 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Colton Joseph (WIS), Carson Hansen (PSU), and Rocco Becht (PSU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
19 player distributions are available, led by Colton Joseph (WIS).
Venue context
Penn State is the designated home team at Beaver Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Wisconsin pass protection vs Penn State pass rush
Wisconsin's pass protection graded 62.3 in 2025 (96th of 136); Penn State's pass rush graded 67.4 (53rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Penn State's pass rush. Penn State's pass rush returns only 14.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Penn State pass protection vs Wisconsin pass rush
Penn State's pass protection graded 74.5 in 2025 (10th of 136); Wisconsin's pass rush graded 69.0 (27th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Penn State's pass protection. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Wisconsin receiving corps vs Penn State coverage
Wisconsin's receiving corps graded 64.3 in 2025 (71st of 136); Penn State's coverage graded 65.2 (59th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Penn State receiving corps vs Wisconsin coverage
Penn State's receiving corps graded 62.8 in 2025 (95th of 136); Wisconsin's coverage graded 60.1 (112th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Penn State's receiving corps. Penn State's receiving corps returns only 11.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Wisconsin rush offense vs Penn State run defense
Wisconsin's rush offense graded 68.3 in 2025 (128th of 136); Penn State's run defense graded 68.5 (51st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Penn State's run defense. Penn State's run defense returns only 22.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Penn State rush offense vs Wisconsin run defense
Penn State's rush offense graded 83.7 in 2025 (6th of 136); Wisconsin's run defense graded 68.3 (54th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Penn State's rush offense. Penn State's rush offense returns only 2.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Wisconsin
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colton JosephHIGH CEILING · Tier 4 | QB | 22.58.0–30.5 | 169107–226 | 6721–107 | — | — |
| Darrion DupreeELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.83.1–15.0 | — | 4312–72 | — | — |
| Abu Sama IIIbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 9.53.0–13.8 | — | 4615–82 | — | — |
| Carter Smithbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 8.91.4–17.1 | — | — | — | — |
| Shamar RigbyVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 8.82.6–12.8 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.5 | 4011–56 |
| Jacob Harrisbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 7.92.5–11.5 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.0 | 3810–53 |
| Zion KearneySAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 6.42.1–10.3 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.8 | 329–49 |
| Bryan Jackson IIbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.31.0–10.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Malachi ColemanSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 6.31.8–10.0 | — | — | — | 277–37 |
Penn State
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson HansenELITE · Tier 5 | RB | 16.76.8–24.5 | — | 7825–107 | — | — |
| Rocco BechtSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 13.64.3–23.9 | 15473–237 | — | — | — |
| Chase SowellSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 10.43.8–16.7 | — | — | 3.71.0–5.7 | 5116–72 |
| Benjamin BrahmerHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 9.72.9–14.4 | — | — | — | 4313–63 |
| Brett EskildsenHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 9.02.7–14.0 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.5 | 4212–61 |
| James PeoplesVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.41.9–14.0 | — | 337–53 | — | — |
| Andrew RappleyeaVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.82.3–12.6 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 3210–48 |
| Gabe BurkleHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 7.72.3–11.5 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.5 | 3710–54 |
| Cam Wallacebalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 5.91.5–10.6 | — | 325–55 | — | — |
| Koby Howardbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 5.91.8–9.7 | — | — | — | 277–37 |
Wisconsin
- Pass yds
- 169
- Rush yds
- 67
- Rush yds
- 43
- Rush yds
- 46
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 38
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 32
- Rec yds
- 27
Penn State
- Rush yds
- 78
- Pass yds
- 154
- Receptions
- 3.7
- Rec yds
- 51
- Rec yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 42
- Rush yds
- 33
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 32
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 32
- Rec yds
- 27
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colton JosephQB · WIS | Passing yards | 169.4 | 173.3 | 107.4–225.5 | Shop the line |
| Carson HansenRB · PSU | Rushing yards | 77.5 | 64.9 | 25.3–106.9 | Shop the line |
| Rocco BechtQB · PSU | Passing yards | 153.9 | 178.4 | 73.3–237.0 | Shop the line |
| Chase SowellWR · PSU | Receiving yards | 50.9 | 41.9 | 15.8–71.6 | Shop the line |
| Darrion DupreeRB · WIS | Rushing yards | 42.9 | 36.6 | 12.1–72.2 | Shop the line |
| Abu Sama IIIRB · WIS | Rushing yards | 45.7 | 47.9 | 14.6–81.8 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 169.4
- Median
- 173.3
- 20th–80th
- 107.4–225.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 77.5
- Median
- 64.9
- 20th–80th
- 25.3–106.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 153.9
- Median
- 178.4
- 20th–80th
- 73.3–237.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 50.9
- Median
- 41.9
- 20th–80th
- 15.8–71.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 42.9
- Median
- 36.6
- 20th–80th
- 12.1–72.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 45.7
- Median
- 47.9
- 20th–80th
- 14.6–81.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated