Texas State Bobcats at San Diego State Aztecs college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 3
- 10:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- San Diego State home
- Snapdragon Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 17 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Texas State visits San Diego State in Week 5.
Texas State travels to San Diego State at Snapdragon Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 17 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Brad Jackson (TXST), Lucky Sutton (SDSU), and Beau Sparks (TXST).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
17 player distributions are available, led by Brad Jackson (TXST).
Venue context
San Diego State is the designated home team at Snapdragon Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:03+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:03+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Texas State pass protection vs San Diego State pass rush
Texas State's pass protection graded 71.9 in 2025 (21st of 136); San Diego State's pass rush graded 67.8 (42nd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Texas State's pass protection.
San Diego State pass protection vs Texas State pass rush
San Diego State's pass protection graded 65.7 in 2025 (72nd of 136); Texas State's pass rush graded 70.4 (12th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Texas State's pass rush.
Texas State receiving corps vs San Diego State coverage
Texas State's receiving corps graded 64.7 in 2025 (65th of 136); San Diego State's coverage graded 71.7 (9th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for San Diego State's coverage.
San Diego State receiving corps vs Texas State coverage
San Diego State's receiving corps graded 60.3 in 2025 (120th of 136); Texas State's coverage graded 62.4 (88th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Texas State's coverage.
Texas State rush offense vs San Diego State run defense
Texas State's rush offense graded 80.7 in 2025 (17th of 136); San Diego State's run defense graded 74.0 (10th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
San Diego State rush offense vs Texas State run defense
San Diego State's rush offense graded 80.4 in 2025 (20th of 136); Texas State's run defense graded 66.9 (66th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for San Diego State's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Texas State
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad JacksonELITE · Tier 3 | QB | 23.69.9–31.1 | 207136–264 | 5711–85 | — | — |
| Beau SparksELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 14.04.7–22.4 | — | — | 4.51.1–6.9 | 5823–81 |
| Chris Dawn Jr.ELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 14.54.9–21.3 | — | — | 4.51.0–6.4 | 5922–86 |
| Jaylen JenkinsVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.11.5–11.4 | — | 326–53 | — | — |
| Kylen EvansSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 6.32.0–10.4 | — | — | — | 288–41 |
| Blake SmithELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 6.31.8–10.2 | — | — | — | 277–37 |
San Diego State
11 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucky Suttonbalanced · Tier 5 | RB | 16.26.2–22.9 | — | 8035–110 | — | — |
| Jayden DenegalVOLATILE · Tier 6 | QB | 11.83.4–20.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Jordan Napierbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 10.43.0–15.3 | — | — | 3.61.0–6.2 | 4312–66 |
| Donovan Brownbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 9.83.3–15.9 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.0 | 5115–73 |
| Christian WashingtonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.02.3–14.0 | — | 4714–80 | — | — |
| Jaylon HawkinsVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 8.32.5–12.8 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.6 | 356–59 |
| Jacob BostickELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 8.93.1–14.0 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.3 | 3711–55 |
| Javion KinnardSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 7.32.1–11.3 | — | — | 2.60.9–4.2 | 288–42 |
| Nathan Acevedobalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.72.0–10.8 | — | — | — | 328–46 |
| Justius Lowebalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.61.9–10.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Ayo Shotomide-Kingbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.01.8–10.0 | — | — | — | 278–41 |
Texas State
- Pass yds
- 207
- Rush yds
- 57
- Receptions
- 4.5
- Rec yds
- 58
- Receptions
- 4.5
- Rec yds
- 59
- Rush yds
- 32
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rec yds
- 27
San Diego State
- Rush yds
- 80
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 51
- Rush yds
- 47
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rec yds
- 32
- Rec yds
- 27
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad JacksonQB · TXST | Passing yards | 206.6 | 201.7 | 136.3–263.9 | Shop the line |
| Lucky SuttonRB · SDSU | Rushing yards | 79.6 | 66.2 | 35.0–109.7 | Shop the line |
| Beau SparksWR · TXST | Receiving yards | 58.2 | 42.4 | 23.3–81.4 | Shop the line |
| Chris Dawn Jr.WR · TXST | Receiving yards | 59.0 | 47.4 | 21.6–86.2 | Shop the line |
| Jordan NapierWR · SDSU | Receiving yards | 43.3 | 33.6 | 11.5–66.2 | Shop the line |
| Donovan BrownWR · SDSU | Receiving yards | 51.3 | 38.8 | 15.2–72.9 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 206.6
- Median
- 201.7
- 20th–80th
- 136.3–263.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 79.6
- Median
- 66.2
- 20th–80th
- 35.0–109.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 58.2
- Median
- 42.4
- 20th–80th
- 23.3–81.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 59.0
- Median
- 47.4
- 20th–80th
- 21.6–86.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 43.3
- Median
- 33.6
- 20th–80th
- 11.5–66.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 51.3
- Median
- 38.8
- 20th–80th
- 15.2–72.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated