San José State Spartans at USC Trojans college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Aug 29
- 3:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- USC home
- Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
- Captured market
- USC -38.5
- DraftKings · Aug 11, 10:09 PM EDT
- Player model
- 12 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
USC carries the early number into Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
San José State travels to USC at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. The captured market lists USC as a 38.5-point favorite. That number came from DraftKings and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 12 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Jayden Maiava (USC), King Miller (USC), and Waymond Jordan (USC).
Market frame
USC is the captured favorite by 38.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
12 player distributions are available, led by Jayden Maiava (USC).
Venue context
USC is the designated home team at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00DraftKings snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:09:50ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
San José State pass protection vs USC pass rush
San José State's pass protection graded 55.2 in 2025 (126th of 136); USC's pass rush graded 65.9 (60th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for USC's pass rush.
USC pass protection vs San José State pass rush
USC's pass protection graded 58.7 in 2025 (114th of 136); San José State's pass rush graded 63.9 (86th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for San José State's pass rush.
San José State receiving corps vs USC coverage
San José State's receiving corps graded 62.8 in 2025 (97th of 136); USC's coverage graded 69.6 (20th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for USC's coverage.
USC receiving corps vs San José State coverage
USC's receiving corps graded 72.8 in 2025 (4th of 136); San José State's coverage graded 55.1 (135th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for USC's receiving corps.
San José State rush offense vs USC run defense
San José State's rush offense graded 75.3 in 2025 (70th of 136); USC's run defense graded 63.0 (117th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for San José State's rush offense.
USC rush offense vs San José State run defense
USC's rush offense graded 79.5 in 2025 (26th of 136); San José State's run defense graded 71.6 (23rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
San José State
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tama Amisonebalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.10.9–10.7 | — | 18-3–45 | — | — |
| Luke WeaverHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 6.51.9–14.1 | 13225–199 | — | — | — |
| Viliami TeuVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 4.81.2–7.1 | — | 293–51 | — | — |
| Jabari Batesbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 5.11.4–7.4 | — | 293–52 | — | — |
| Cooper HochVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 4.51.5–6.7 | — | — | — | — |
| Malachi RileyVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 4.41.3–6.3 | — | — | — | 195–26 |
USC
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Maiavabalanced · Tier 4 | QB | 21.29.3–28.7 | 247170–286 | — | — | — |
| King Millerbalanced · Tier 5 | RB | 15.86.4–24.6 | — | 7128–107 | 1.70.9–3.0 | 160–27 |
| Waymond JordanHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | RB | 15.35.2–22.6 | — | 6922–104 | — | — |
| Tanook HinesVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 10.33.4–15.3 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.0 | 4315–66 |
| Terrell Andersonbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 10.13.3–15.2 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.2 | 3712–64 |
| Zacharyus WilliamsVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 9.42.7–14.4 | — | — | 3.11.1–4.5 | 4011–61 |
San José State
- Rush yds
- 18
- Pass yds
- 132
- Rush yds
- 29
- Rush yds
- 29
- Rec yds
- 19
USC
- Pass yds
- 247
- Rush yds
- 71
- Receptions
- 1.7
- Rec yds
- 16
- Rush yds
- 69
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 40
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden MaiavaQB · USC | Passing yards | 247.4 | 237.2 | 169.9–285.9 | Shop the line |
| King MillerRB · USC | Rushing yards | 71.1 | 64.9 | 28.1–107.2 | Shop the line |
| Waymond JordanRB · USC | Rushing yards | 69.1 | 59.8 | 21.8–103.8 | Shop the line |
| Tanook HinesWR · USC | Receiving yards | 43.1 | 36.8 | 14.6–65.5 | Shop the line |
| Terrell AndersonWR · USC | Receiving yards | 37.3 | 31.3 | 11.7–63.7 | Shop the line |
| Zacharyus WilliamsWR · USC | Receiving yards | 39.8 | 31.0 | 10.8–61.3 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 247.4
- Median
- 237.2
- 20th–80th
- 169.9–285.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 71.1
- Median
- 64.9
- 20th–80th
- 28.1–107.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 69.1
- Median
- 59.8
- 20th–80th
- 21.8–103.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 43.1
- Median
- 36.8
- 20th–80th
- 14.6–65.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 37.3
- Median
- 31.3
- 20th–80th
- 11.7–63.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 39.8
- Median
- 31.0
- 20th–80th
- 10.8–61.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated