NC State Wolfpack at Virginia Cavaliers college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Aug 29
- 3:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- Virginia home
- Scott Stadium
- Captured market
- UVA -5.5
- DraftKings · Aug 11, 10:09 PM EDT
- Player model
- 21 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Virginia carries the early number into Scott Stadium.
NC State travels to Virginia at Scott Stadium. The captured market lists Virginia as a 5.5-point favorite. That number came from DraftKings and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 21 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to CJ Bailey (NCSU), Jekail Middlebrook (UVA), and Jacquon Gibson (UVA).
Market frame
Virginia is the captured favorite by 5.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
21 player distributions are available, led by CJ Bailey (NCSU).
Venue context
Virginia is the designated home team at Scott Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00DraftKings snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:09:50ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
NC State pass protection vs Virginia pass rush
NC State's pass protection graded 67.2 in 2025 (60th of 136); Virginia's pass rush graded 68.2 (36th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Virginia's pass rush.
Virginia pass protection vs NC State pass rush
Virginia's pass protection graded 67.5 in 2025 (56th of 136); NC State's pass rush graded 65.5 (68th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
NC State receiving corps vs Virginia coverage
NC State's receiving corps graded 69.0 in 2025 (14th of 136); Virginia's coverage graded 69.6 (21st). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Virginia receiving corps vs NC State coverage
Virginia's receiving corps graded 66.1 in 2025 (45th of 136); NC State's coverage graded 59.3 (116th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Virginia's receiving corps. Virginia's receiving corps returns only 23.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
NC State rush offense vs Virginia run defense
NC State's rush offense graded 77.9 in 2025 (43rd of 136); Virginia's run defense graded 70.2 (35th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Virginia rush offense vs NC State run defense
Virginia's rush offense graded 74.8 in 2025 (74th of 136); NC State's run defense graded 65.9 (81st). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
NC State
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ BaileySAFE FLOOR · Tier 4 | QB | 16.36.0–26.0 | 195102–257 | 250–49 | — | — |
| Victor Snowbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 13.34.1–21.3 | — | — | 4.41.1–6.5 | 5516–82 |
| Tad HudsonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | QB | 10.22.5–19.9 | 15020–240 | — | — | — |
| Will WilsonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 9.32.8–15.9 | — | 327–56 | — | — |
| Davion GauseELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.62.3–14.1 | — | 243–37 | 1.80.0–3.2 | 130–18 |
| Davion DozierELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 7.42.2–12.7 | — | — | — | 3611–54 |
| Jayden ScottELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.31.8–13.5 | — | — | — | 110–17 |
| Joshisa TraderSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 6.51.9–10.8 | — | — | — | 289–45 |
| Keenan JacksonELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 6.31.8–10.6 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.6 | — |
Virginia
12 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jekail Middlebrookbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 15.96.1–24.3 | — | 6720–97 | 2.90.9–4.6 | 300–56 |
| Jacquon Gibsonbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 13.84.9–21.6 | — | — | 4.91.1–7.8 | 5718–88 |
| Beau PribulaHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 14.33.7–24.0 | 12721–228 | 336–58 | — | — |
| Da'Shawn MartinELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 10.84.0–17.2 | — | — | 3.71.0–5.7 | 5416–79 |
| Rico Flores Jr.balanced · Tier 6 | WR | 9.23.1–13.1 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.2 | 4311–64 |
| Peyton Lewisbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 9.02.4–14.0 | — | 376–56 | — | — |
| Tyson Davisbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 8.32.6–12.1 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.5 | 4010–62 |
| Solomon BeebeSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 7.72.2–12.2 | — | 377–54 | 1.60.0–3.1 | — |
| Xavier BrownVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.61.6–12.2 | — | 357–56 | — | — |
| Dakota Twittybalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 7.52.2–11.3 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.0 | 329–50 |
| Kameron Courtneybalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 7.02.1–10.6 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.0 | 318–49 |
| John Rogersbalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 6.11.7–9.4 | — | — | — | 267–38 |
NC State
- Pass yds
- 195
- Rush yds
- 25
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 55
- Pass yds
- 150
- Rush yds
- 32
- Rush yds
- 24
- Receptions
- 1.8
- Rec yds
- 13
- Rec yds
- 36
- Rec yds
- 11
- Rec yds
- 28
- Receptions
- 2.5
Virginia
- Rush yds
- 67
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 4.9
- Rec yds
- 57
- Pass yds
- 127
- Rush yds
- 33
- Receptions
- 3.7
- Rec yds
- 54
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 43
- Rush yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 40
- Rush yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 1.6
- Rush yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 32
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ BaileyQB · NCSU | Passing yards | 194.7 | 193.8 | 102.3–256.6 | Shop the line |
| Jekail MiddlebrookRB · UVA | Rushing yards | 67.0 | 53.7 | 19.5–96.5 | Shop the line |
| Jacquon GibsonWR · UVA | Receiving yards | 57.3 | 44.9 | 17.8–87.6 | Shop the line |
| Victor SnowWR · NCSU | Receiving yards | 54.8 | 45.2 | 15.9–82.4 | Shop the line |
| Beau PribulaQB · UVA | Passing yards | 126.5 | 136.8 | 21.4–228.2 | Shop the line |
| Da'Shawn MartinWR · UVA | Receiving yards | 53.9 | 39.9 | 15.7–79.0 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 194.7
- Median
- 193.8
- 20th–80th
- 102.3–256.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 67.0
- Median
- 53.7
- 20th–80th
- 19.5–96.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 57.3
- Median
- 44.9
- 20th–80th
- 17.8–87.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 54.8
- Median
- 45.2
- 20th–80th
- 15.9–82.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 126.5
- Median
- 136.8
- 20th–80th
- 21.4–228.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 53.9
- Median
- 39.9
- 20th–80th
- 15.7–79.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated