Louisville Cardinals at Ole Miss Rebels college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sun, Sep 6
- 7:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- Neutral site
- Nissan Stadium
- Captured market
- MISS -6.5
- FanDuel · Aug 11, 10:10 PM EDT
- Player model
- 26 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Ole Miss and Louisville open on a neutral stage.
Ole Miss and Louisville meet on a neutral stage at Nissan Stadium. The captured market lists Ole Miss as a 6.5-point favorite. That number came from FanDuel and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 26 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Trinidad Chambliss (MISS), Kewan Lacy (MISS), and Lincoln Kienholz (LOU).
Market frame
Ole Miss is the captured favorite by 6.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
26 player distributions are available, led by Trinidad Chambliss (MISS).
Neutral-site context
Nissan Stadium removes the standard home-field assumption.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00FanDuel snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:10:02ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Louisville pass protection vs Ole Miss pass rush
Louisville's pass protection graded 68.1 in 2025 (51st of 136); Ole Miss's pass rush graded 64.7 (76th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Louisville's pass protection.
Ole Miss pass protection vs Louisville pass rush
Ole Miss's pass protection graded 70.5 in 2025 (32nd of 136); Louisville's pass rush graded 76.0 (2nd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Louisville's pass rush.
Louisville receiving corps vs Ole Miss coverage
Louisville's receiving corps graded 66.0 in 2025 (47th of 136); Ole Miss's coverage graded 64.7 (66th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Louisville's receiving corps.
Ole Miss receiving corps vs Louisville coverage
Ole Miss's receiving corps graded 71.0 in 2025 (7th of 136); Louisville's coverage graded 70.9 (13th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Louisville rush offense vs Ole Miss run defense
Louisville's rush offense graded 79.6 in 2025 (25th of 136); Ole Miss's run defense graded 70.2 (33rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Ole Miss rush offense vs Louisville run defense
Ole Miss's rush offense graded 83.7 in 2025 (5th of 136); Louisville's run defense graded 70.3 (31st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Ole Miss's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Louisville
12 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln Kienholzbalanced · Tier 5 | QB | 16.24.9–24.8 | 213123–269 | — | — | — |
| Isaac BrownELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 12.94.9–22.5 | — | 5125–89 | — | — |
| Keyjuan BrownELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 13.03.8–21.5 | — | 5421–86 | — | — |
| Tre Richardsonbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 12.83.9–20.7 | — | — | 4.31.0–6.3 | 6019–92 |
| Brody FoleyELITE · Tier 4 | TE | 11.94.0–20.5 | — | — | 4.31.1–6.5 | 5417–83 |
| Marquise DavisHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 9.63.4–17.8 | — | 4311–74 | — | — |
| Lawayne McCoyHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 9.63.4–15.2 | — | — | 3.21.0–5.3 | 4614–66 |
| Braxton JenningsHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 10.22.8–16.7 | — | 4815–80 | — | — |
| Jaleel SkinnerELITE · Tier 5 | TE | 6.62.0–11.0 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | — |
| TreyShun HurryELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 6.41.8–10.8 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.8 | 298–45 |
| Justyn ReidELITE · Tier 5 | TE | 6.11.7–10.1 | — | — | — | — |
| Kris HughesELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 5.91.6–9.9 | — | — | — | 267–34 |
Ole Miss
14 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trinidad Chamblissbalanced · Tier 4 | QB | 22.010.1–29.4 | 232142–305 | 334–52 | — | — |
| Kewan LacyELITE · Tier 4 | RB | 19.19.1–24.9 | — | 9435–127 | 1.90.9–3.5 | — |
| Maealiuaki SmithVOLATILE · Tier 6 | QB | 10.72.1–20.1 | 15948–255 | — | — | — |
| Traylon RayHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 11.33.3–15.9 | — | — | 3.21.0–4.8 | 5015–71 |
| Deuce AlexanderHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 9.83.0–14.6 | — | — | 3.11.1–4.6 | 4513–68 |
| Horatio FieldsELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 9.73.3–14.5 | — | — | 3.61.0–5.5 | 4113–64 |
| Luke Haszbalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 9.53.0–14.2 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.9 | 3913–65 |
| Johntay Cook IIbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 8.92.5–11.9 | — | — | 3.21.0–4.8 | 4011–63 |
| Darrell Gill Jr.balanced · Tier 6 | WR | 9.12.6–14.5 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.8 | 3712–60 |
| Makhi FrazierELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.92.6–13.9 | — | 4313–71 | — | — |
| Caleb OdomVOLATILE · Tier 5 | TE | 7.42.2–10.8 | — | — | — | 309–51 |
| Cameron Millerbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.92.2–10.3 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 319–51 |
| Isaiah SpencerELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 6.91.9–10.7 | — | — | — | 308–49 |
| Michael Smithbalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 6.91.8–10.3 | — | — | — | — |
Louisville
- Pass yds
- 213
- Rush yds
- 51
- Rush yds
- 54
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 60
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 54
- Rush yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 46
- Rush yds
- 48
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 29
- Rec yds
- 26
Ole Miss
- Pass yds
- 232
- Rush yds
- 33
- Rush yds
- 94
- Receptions
- 1.9
- Pass yds
- 159
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 45
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 41
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 43
- Rec yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rec yds
- 30
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trinidad ChamblissQB · MISS | Passing yards | 232.0 | 224.3 | 142.0–305.0 | Shop the line |
| Kewan LacyRB · MISS | Rushing yards | 94.4 | 79.9 | 34.8–126.9 | Shop the line |
| Lincoln KienholzQB · LOU | Passing yards | 212.7 | 198.6 | 122.7–269.2 | Shop the line |
| Isaac BrownRB · LOU | Rushing yards | 51.3 | 45.6 | 24.8–89.4 | Shop the line |
| Keyjuan BrownRB · LOU | Rushing yards | 54.3 | 44.9 | 20.6–86.0 | Shop the line |
| Tre RichardsonWR · LOU | Receiving yards | 60.0 | 42.2 | 19.4–91.5 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 232.0
- Median
- 224.3
- 20th–80th
- 142.0–305.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 94.4
- Median
- 79.9
- 20th–80th
- 34.8–126.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 212.7
- Median
- 198.6
- 20th–80th
- 122.7–269.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 51.3
- Median
- 45.6
- 20th–80th
- 24.8–89.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 54.3
- Median
- 44.9
- 20th–80th
- 20.6–86.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 60.0
- Median
- 42.2
- 20th–80th
- 19.4–91.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated