One place for what we forecast, what we observed, what the market captured, and what the data still cannot support.
Eight Week 1 finals connect directly into existing matchup, team, and player dossiers. The upstream files and cfbfastR revision are hash-pinned in the checked-in contract.
Some completed games lack rows in the separate drive release. Each visualization fails closed at the game level.
Use game flow and passing shape to explain how production happened. Use the frozen League range and an actual posted line to evaluate a prop. Never let a postgame chart masquerade as information available before kickoff.
Open CFB propsExact result rows link into player and game dossiers when identity coverage permits. Rankings describe this eight-game snapshot only.
| Player | Team | C/A | Yds | EPA/play | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Arnold | UNLV | 25/38 | 321 | -0.056 | View |
| Noah Kim | EMU | 26/36 | 293 | +0.239 | View |
| Jayden Maiava | USC | 25/29 | 286 | +0.502 | View |
| Luke Weaver | SJSU | 21/32 | 234 | +0.302 | View |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | UNC | 16/28 | 232 | +0.141 | View |
| Marcus Stokes | MEM | 15/26 | 223 | +0.065 | View |
| Davis Warren | STAN | 12/22 | 198 | +0.153 | View |
| Jaden Craig | TCU | 20/32 | 175 | -0.123 | View |
| Ashton Daniels | FSU | 12/20 | 162 | +0.279 | View |
| Nathan Hayes | NDSU | 14/21 | 160 | +0.240 | View |
| Trey Hedden | NMSU | 17/25 | 159 | +0.231 | View |
| Beau Pribula | UVA | 9/11 | 155 | +0.463 | View |
| Player | Team | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Mosley | USC | 9 | 7 | 118 | View |
| Jelani Thurman | UNC | 8 | 4 | 94 | View |
| Benson Prosper | EMU | 8 | 7 | 81 | View |
| Carson Clark | SJSU | 6 | 6 | 74 | View |
| Jordan Shipp | UNC | 8 | 5 | 71 | View |
| Nick Devereaux | EMU | 9 | 5 | 69 | View |
| Jerry McClure | SJSU | 9 | 6 | 68 | View |
| Brodie Malone-Bradford | NMSU | 3 | 3 | 68 | View |
| Ed Small | TCU | 11 | 9 | 65 | View |
| Jemyri Davis | MEM | 3 | 3 | 62 | View |
| Jai'Den Thomas | UNLV | 9 | 6 | 60 | View |
| Xavier Brown | UVA | 2 | 2 | 58 | View |
Forecasts, matchup grades, historical evidence, and postgame models each keep their own clock and decision boundary.
A current source can feed product. A stale or single-snapshot source stays labeled until a new immutable generation replaces it.
| Source | Role | Observed | Coverage | State | Next action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESPN schedule catalog | Schedule / identity | Not available | 239 linked teams · 892 games | current | Refresh status, scores, and kickoff changes on cadence. |
| CollegeFootballData | Stats / roster / ratings / passing | Aug 29, 11:31 PM EDT | Core model provider plus new air-yard/location/YAC endpoints | current | Promote postgame passing generations with availability counts. |
| RotoWire projections | Projection / role | Aug 24, 1:58 PM EDT | 1,803 rows · 99.3% CFBD identity resolution | refresh | New capture before the next slate; preserve source observation time. |
| RotoWire depth and availability | Depth / status | Aug 24, 1:58 PM EDT | Full FBS depth export with matched status flags | refresh | Capture changes as events, not only latest state. |
| PFF 2021–2025 archives | Charting / role / quality | Aug 19, 8:00 PM EDT | 11,192 2025 players · 136 teams plus multi-year archive | stable | Add 2026 measured samples when available; keep season labels explicit. |
| SportsDataverse / cfbfastR | PBP / drives / model-derived results | Aug 30, 4:30 PM EDT | 8 Week 1 games · 443 pass targets | current | Refresh after completed games and pin every asset hash. |
| The Odds API | Market snapshot | Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT | 98 Week 1 games with a spread | stale | Replace single snapshot with timestamped open/current/close captures. |
| Yahoo comparison snapshot | Independent raw-stat context | Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT | 599 matched players | stable | Refresh only when an explicit comparison is useful; ordinary model weight stays zero. |
These are the next sources or capture systems that unlock real product—not generic requests for more data.
Unlocks: Truthful line-movement charts, CLV, forecast-to-quote joins
Current: One dated Week 1 spread snapshot; no reliable quote sequence
Acquire: Scheduled open/current/close capture with book, price, line, event/player IDs, and captured_at.
Unlocks: Role-change timelines, injury-adjusted projections, auditable stale-line warnings
Current: RotoWire latest-state depth/status snapshot from Aug 24
Acquire: Immutable refreshes plus effective_at, observed_at, status, source, and previous-state diff.
Unlocks: 2026 Scheme Score components and real matchup-specific receiver fit
Current: Early-season grade relies on 2025 alignment/funnel evidence
Acquire: Refresh after sample gates; publish route/coverage counts and uncertainty.
Unlocks: Tracking playback, true formation viewer, and route tree
Current: No XY frames, formation labels, or route coordinates in CFBD/cfbfastR
Acquire: Licensed tracking source with stable game/play/player IDs and coordinate dictionary.
Unlocks: Live calibration, Scheme Score outcome tracking, honest promotion/demotion
Current: Development evidence exists; 2026 results are not yet a public frozen ledger
Acquire: Score frozen pregame rows after completion without retuning from the ledger.
Unlocks: Kickoff-condition cards and late movement explanations
Current: Venue is available; forecast/observation history is not normalized
Acquire: Timestamped venue weather with forecast issue time and observed conditions.
Every gated demo now has a public destination or an explicit source requirement. Unsupported tracking concepts remain off until the data exists.
| Visualization | Status | Public destination | Data contract |
|---|---|---|---|
| Football field + current play | Live | Completed matchup pages | Observed start, line to gain, finish |
| Tracking playback | Source needed | Not public | Player XY frames do not exist in current sources |
| Formation viewer | Source needed | Not public | No verified formation labels |
| Route tree | Source needed | Not public | No route geometry |
| Pass map | Live | Matchup, team, player | Schematic air yards + categorical direction |
| Passing-production profile | Live | Team pages | QB and target observed production |
| Field heatmap | Live | Team and player pages | Short/deep × left/middle/right target grid |
| Signed evidence bars | Live | Completed matchup pages | Home-minus-away observed efficiency |
| Win probability | Live | Completed matchup pages | Postgame cfbfastR series |
| Drive chart | Live with fallback | Completed matchup pages | Fails closed when drive asset has no rows |
| Team comparison | Live | Completed matchup pages | Exact observed values beside signed bars |
| Player comparison | Live | Research leaders + player pages | Passer and receiver result tables |
| Projection interval | Live | Team, matchup, player | League pregame p20/p50/p80 only |
| Market-line history | Capture needed | Single-point status only | No fabricated time axis from one snapshot |
The research desk is a routing and provenance layer, not a new blended model. League weekly/season forecasts, PFF historical measurements, Scheme Score matchup grades, captured market lines, CFBD passing results, and cfbfastR postgame models remain independently labeled through display. Missing or stale sources stay visible.